BC Pre-Entries ML Overlay's + Top 3

[marcus]

Thanks ThoroGraph for the excellent  BC Pre-Entries package and after an initial glance , the BC Card doesn\'t seem to be too chalky on the day  overall -  top 3 pick\'s are pre-draw only and with oddschecker.com as a Morning Line ...

Juvenile Fillies -  
Cotton Blossom 12-1  /  Apealing Zophie 16-1  /  Cash Included 5-2

Juveniles -  
Got The Last Laugh 20-1  /  Scat Daddy 7-2  /  Pegasus Wind 14-1

Filly and Mare Turf -  
Gorella 4-1  /  My Typhoon 25-1  /  Satwa Queen 7-1

Sprint -  
Commentator 14-1  /  Dubai Escpade 10-1  /  Bordonaro 5-1

Mile -  
Badge Of Silver 16-1  /  Miesques Approval 14-1  /  Arogorn  3-1

Distaff -  
 Pool Land 14-1  /  Happy Ticket 12-1  /  Balletto 7-1

BC Turf -
Go Deputy 14-1  /  English Channel 3-1  /  Cacique 5-1

Classic -
Discreet Cat 8-1  /  Invasor 6-1  /  Bernadini even  



       

[jbelfior]

Marcus:


Hard for me to imagine GO DEPUTY returning in 2 weeks after a 1 1/2 race run over a very tiring course. I\'m thinking he only goes if ENGLISH CHANNEL does not.

Not sure what Frankel is thinking with regards to BADGE OF SILVER. This must be Ramsey\'s call. At least now their pre-race BC strategy will involve the same horse.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[richiebee]

Hey JB:

Speaking of English Channel, IMO he is coming out of the weakest Grade I turf
stake I can remember ever being run in NY.

Did Dick Allen ever play Keystone/ Liberty Bell doubleheaders, or was he
strictly a \"flats\" man?

[marcus]

jbelfior - The BC Turf comes up weak for Value . Badge of Silver at the price or better and with a favorable Draw + Pace Senario is tempting .
Cacique very well might be the best value at 5-1 .

The Mile looks full of some very Big Name Horse\'s who don\'t seem to have  fragile lines so much as they do appear to be heavily raced .
 I would have liked Free Thinking if was in . Badge Of Silver has run tops fresh and will be a price . Arogorn didn\'t tail off too badly from the Neg # and might be a  play at 3-1 , though I\'d feel more comfortable using him over as a saver . But overall , there\'s a bunch in here at short prices  who \"Might\" or  \"Might Not\" give a race   .  

[RICH]

In my opinion, the value is with TH Approval

[marcus]

Those are solid turf numbers w/ T.H. Approval , that partern eventually improves too , and why not at 12-1 & up but I\'m seeing a repeat of his 4 yo campaign when looking at his sheet and thinking the new top is coming - but not just yet . If he get\'s the rail and save\'s ground on turns however - a pair could work ...    

[flushedstraight]

A few irreverent irrelevant early observations;

- in the last BC at CD, top fig in the classic was earned by a Euro in a losing effort; same goes for the prior classic at CD in 98 (making the assumption Swain lost more than a length from AA and SC in that fiasco, not in TG archives). This year, the whiskey-swigging Welshman namesake didn\'t make it but the hemp-growing American namesake is coming as well as DJ looking to slay Goliath Junior. Spencer for hire? Please, noooooooooooo, come back just once for this Tap, Pat, just once, it\'s a Saturday for Crist\'s sake!

- The pacesetter in the 01 Classic at Belmont was a 3yr old longshot who faded badly but came back to win the BC sprint in 02; the 05 Classic pacesetter at Richie\'s future petting zoo was a fading 3yr old longshot who\'s had success sprinting this year but coming back for the classic where daddy won derby at distance and connections already have sprint contender (according to TG)... does Nicky still have Ky vet on speed dial for the powered by dodge the stewards classic?

[jbelfior]

Do you really believe SUN KING is a classic distance animal?

His problem is that there is no BC dirt race at a mile or 1 1/8th. Positive is Zito layoff, but I think the distance versus this type is a major obstacle here.



Good Luck,
Joe B.






 

[Wrongly]

Joe

Maybe your right but Zito knows how to get a horse ready to run 1 1/2, why can\'t he get Sun King to go 1 1/4?  That being said I doubt he will be able to beat Berni or Invasor.

[marcus]

I don\'t know about \"Classic Distance Animal \" - Is the glass half full or empty ?  The sheet gives different signals , breeding info would suggest yes , but  his pattern and numbers at the distance are a question  . That last time he tried in \'05 as a 3 yo  , it was off a neg # top effort - and a 3rd consecutive top effort , so the bounce was coming +  the 4 yo pattern looks a little more solid now , tough call ...    

[jbelfior]

He\'s certainly an interesting look. The thing about him is how durable he has become as a 4yo.

The Whitney at Saratoga was brutal in that the top 2 finished strongly at a distance where that did not happen too often at the meet. (They gapped the rest of the field and PREMIUM TAP). The effort appears to have taken its toll on INVASOR.

I was shocked to see SUN KING return in the Woodward but knowing Tracey Farmer, I should not have been. Nevertheless I tossed him with confidence only to watch him run another gallant race against the grain that day.


I also like the pattern, the Zito layoff, it being Churchill, etc. Still need at least 15-1 due to my doubts at the distance.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[asfufh]

FWIW--Here\'s Neumeier\'s thoughts on prior polytrack runners in this year\'s BC.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15418688

[richiebee]

Flushed:

Appreciated the \"petting zoo\" reference to my vision of the future of NY Racing.

My doctor has recently changed my medication regimen. Whereas I went for years
dreaming only infrequently, the change in medication has apparently turned me
into a prolific dreamer. Among some recent ones:

A)When I get off the Express bus, Scarlett Johanssen, Kirsten Dunst and Jessica
Biel are waiting by my car, clad in the plaid skirts worn by the Catholic high
school girls here in NYC...

B)On the 9th hole at Hominy Hill,I decide to go for the gusto, instead of going
the long and safe way around the tree. I grab my 5 metal and smoke the ball; it
climbs over the water hazard, over the bunkers and bounces smartly on to the
green. All that remains is a remarkably simple eight footer for the eagle...

C)I am at a packed simulcast location,and the crowd is roaring. Above the roar,
I hear Trevor Denman screaming \"...and Giacomo is fuh-lying on the grandstand
side..\"

Yes, Giacomo is slower than the top contenders. Yes, if you like him that means
that Super Frolic and Brother Derek (not to mention Lava Man) are all contenders.
But maybe this Derby winner will appreciate the return to the Twin Spires, and
with a 14 horse field Mike Smith might only be 6 wide, rather than the 8 wide he
was in the 20 horse Derby.

A hopeless longshot for the win spot? Probably.

A good longshot for gimmicks? I think you could do worse.

And hey, for me at least, Dream C has a much better chance of being realized
than Dream A.

[davidrex]

I want my meds changed to what ever richiebee is onto!