ROTW & Belmont

[bobphilo]

Michael,

You\'re correct. Strictly speaking, varient refers only to change in track speed. I meant to refer more broadly to all factors that can affect a horses final time and can be taken into account when making the final figure, including a very slow pace. Adjustemnts to final time would be a better term for what I was discussing.

Bob

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> bob,
>
> slow pace doesn\'t affect the variant. different
> issues.
>
> slow pace was the main issue here.
>


Michael, with all due respect, slow pace races, especially upon turf, can have a significant impact upon trying to calculate a variant. Tgraph will argue that Race to Race changing track conditions add to the dilemma. Factor also that with Turf, there may only be 1 or 2 Turf races run a day on many cards.

I\'m not sure how important the variant is to some of the elite figure makers, but a variant or a variant deduction to me is still essential. Obviously, the less you deduce the better. Which is not to say, you can\'t deduce and get it right on.

[Michael D.]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> You\'re correct. Strictly speaking, varient refers
> only to change in track speed. I meant to refer
> more broadly to all factors that can affect a
> horses final time and can be taken into account
> when making the final figure, including a very
> slow pace. Adjustemnts to final time would be a
> better term for what I was discussing.
>
> Bob


yes, i like to separate the traditional variant, meaning track and weather conditions, from pace, but i understand what you are saying .....

interesting point you make about double counting the effects of pace on a race (earlier).

how many times have you looked at a 95 or so beyer from a :50, 1:38, 1:49 type turf race and wonder if it has been adjusted? are the closers that were mindlessly rated ten lengths off the pace until the top of the stretch faster than that? can they go 105 under different circumstances? how about the 90-1 shot that was ridden all the way around and faded late? was his number adjusted? is he an 80 beyer animal that was just artificially bumped to a 90? it\'s all or nothing right?

adjusting for pace is not easy. it\'s also not easy for the handicapper to factor in what the figure maker did. the \'sl pace\' notation that TG gives is a big help though. beyer would be wise to start doing something similar.

....

beyerguy, you around? thoughts?

[TGJB]

Miff-- I only adjust figures when the pace is so slow that it affects the actual final time of the races, where the horses simply can\'t make up the lost time. In the case of a hot pace the final time is not affected for the entire field, we mark it so that everyone can draw their own conclusions about how it affected individual horses. Problem with hot paces is that they are subjective, and we don\'t always catch them-- with slow pace races they jump out at you because the final time comes up out of line.

Grass courses when dry are generally much faster than today\'s sandy dirt tracks, and the pace is usually slower,so it\'s more likely the time will be affected (you don\'t see many dirt races where the second half goes faster than the first, it happens frequently with grass races). Fortunately, grass horses are much more consistent and run in tighter ranges, making it easy to figure out the right way to do the race-- turf races with several horses that have turf histories are almost never a problem no matter the circumstances (pace, rain, no other grass races). Once you make the adjustments for weight and ground everything falls into place nicely, but only for those who use weight and ground and have a data base ground fine over the years.

In the end you do it off the horses. I have heard that Ragozin uses a formula for slow pace races, if he does he\'s nuts.

Europe features lots of very slow paces, to say nothing of funny distances with hills, and short meets where you might only see three races at a certain distance. It\'s a good thing grass horses run in tight ranges, otherwise Timeform would be screwed.

[bellsbendboy]

Good info, although a misprint on dirt races having faster second halfs. Also when the rails are up on turf, the pace can be very slow. BBB

[P.Eckhart]

Today, BC Turf champ Shirocco won the Prix Foy in 2:32.90 and Mandesha a 3yo filly won the Prix Vermeille in 2:29.20 over the same trip. In clock cuckoo land that\'s about a 22L or 48lb better performance by the young lassie.

Fabre mentions strong possibility Shirocco points to BC Classic after L\'Arc.

[miff]

Jerry,

Thanks. I thought forever that the pace designation was just an alert to an inordinately slow pace. I was unaware that you actually adjusted the fig because of the very slow pace (on grass only)


I\'m aware you follow track speeds closely but I\'m surprised that a premier grass course like Arlington changed speeds in one hour on 8/12.

Mike

[P.Eckhart]

\"Adjust\" is a euphamism for \"I threw the old tick tock out the window\".

Seriously, how many times does he have to say I did it off the horses? How many times? Heading toward infinity. *click*

[TGJB]

Bell-- fixed the typo. The \"slow\" splits are often due to short run-ups at certain distances at certain tracks-- from memory, the 1 1/16th inner turf without a rail at Belmont is way backed up into the chute, almost no runup.

[bobphilo]

Michael,

Accounting for the affect of pace is truly a challenge for both handicapper and figure maker. While I agree with pace handicappers that it can and does affect final time, I don't think it's effects can be quantified in a uniform linear fashion as they attempt to do. The reason for this, without getting too technical, is given in the formula for kinetic energy where KE = 1/2 MV squared, so the effects of velocity are exponential and cannot be calculated in simple linear fashion.
Beyer has also written that since the effects of pace cannot be (or are difficult) to quantify, he views extreme pace scenarios qualitatively as trip factors, such as dead rails or poor starts.
My basic approach is to deal with extreme variations from even pace, whether fast or slow, as bad trips and put a plus sign next to a horses figure, as Timeform does.
The only problem occurs when the figure maker has already adjusted the figure, which is why the TG notation for slow pace is a big help there.
I share your surprise that, given his position on the effect of extreme pace deviations, that Beyer does not include fast or slow pace notations with his figures.

Bob

[tmon]

I listened to that race the pace was very very slow. It caused the race to become a 3 furlong sprint at the end.

[jbelfior]

Whatever the case may have been in the Man O\'War with regards to pace, that was one of the most impressive finishes going long on the turf that I have seen in years.

By my calculation, CACIQUE came home in :10 4/5 on a slow turf.




Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Uncle Buck]

I swung by Bay Meadows and played the Belmont pick 4 Saturday. I singled Magnificent Song and Cacique in the 7th and 9th respectively. I played Pine Island, Bushfire and Teammate in the 8th and spread out to 7 horses in the 10th including the 10-1 winner (can\'t remember his name). Had teammate held off Pine Island it would have been a great score. As it was, it paid 710 the way I had it. Not bad for not even handicapping the card at all and just playing off the $2 program. I couldn\'t beleive that Showing Up was pounded like he was. He\'s nice but he ain\'t no Kitten\'s Joy. I thought Cacique would blow them away and I thought right. Prado is the bomb. Diving down to the rail and asking the horse for everything at the 1/4 pole was brilliant!