No # for Untouched Talent at DMR?

[imallin]

I know sometimes the bias changes and whatnut and you can\'t come up with an accurate number, esp on a first time starter.

Did the bias or track get slower or faster for this race? Do we know anything about pleasanton on this day? This horse is like an 8-5 morning line horse in the 2nd leg of the 500k pick 4.

Any thoughts on the numberless horse?

[nicely nicely]

A couple of people have asked for a number on this horse, but one couldn\'t honestly be made.  The surrounding sprints are all different distances and there was a windshift going on, too. When you have a meet that only runs a few weeks a year, it\'s reckless to assume relationships between distances.

As a whole, the track on that day was running relatively flat variant-wise.

Good luck.

[miff]

They paid 500k in a training sale,she is royally bred, has good spacing, and won handily first out.A solid trainer and great works since her last start.I\'d say you can\'t leave her out despite her ML.

Outofthepast ran the last eighth in 11.2 against a fast bunch and figures big.

Shawklit Sundae \"warred\" in the Landaluce against a salty bunch and deserves consideration, imo.

Good luck

[beyerguy]

They have run plenty of races at the various sprint distances to establish a relationship it would seem to me.  What is your cutoff?

[nicely nicely]

This year AND last they ran 9 and 10 races respectively at 5f. Each year, only twice were these races surrounded by sprints. And, these races are mostly for maiden 2YOs.
There isn\'t a lot to go on here.

 

[beyerguy]

I understand that, but let us say you assign figures assuming the normal relationship between sprint distances and don\'t publish them.  It would be easy enough to check as they ran back in the future to see how the figs held up, would it not?  If not, you can then figure out the relationship.  This isn\'t like the Kee 4.5f races where they are using a different part of the track that isn\'t used otherwise.

[imallin]

Personally, and i know this would upset some of the guru\'s here, but i\'d prefer T Graph put in a number that would be their best guess and maybe put a squiggly line or something to indicate that its a number they aren\'t sure about.

T-graph\'s \'guess\' is better than anything i could come up with, so i\'d like to see a guess rather than a \'dunno\'

[nicely nicely]

What you are suggesting is logical, and similar to what we do in cases where we do assign a figure but mark the race for review. However, with early 2YOs you\'d expect to see development more than consistency. You\'d need overwhelming evidence to retroactively make a figure for a maiden, especially where much of the field ran poorly.

Let\'s say, for whatever reason, we couldn\'t make a figure, or assign a \'reviewable\' figure for a March 3YO turf race. A couple of months later, after 3-4 more starts for much of the field, there\'s probably more than enough evidence to go back and \'finalize\' that figure.

JB may want to elaborate, amend, or emend my comments and explain things in his own words, but that\'ll have to wait for early next week.

[miff]

How does this horse, with one start, have a sheet fig of 0.75 and a contest fig of 2.35? Thanks

[scavsiu8]

0.75+1.6=2.35=(8lbs over 115 times .2)

[miff]

Thanks

[Michael D.]

Jerry,

you have watched tens of thousands of races. you know this game as well as anyone alive. your best guess has to be better than nothing.

it\'s not about confident figs.

it\'s about a best estimate or nothing. which is better?