Betting the Belmont

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

How you wager upon the Belmont will probably boil down to your personal view of the Kentucky Derby. If you believe that the Derby was a fairly run race upon a fair and balanced track and that the best horses won you will probably be betting the horses that finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the Derby. Unfortunately, even if that hypothesis is correct, those are precisely the horses the crowd is going to back for the very same reasons.

On the other hand if you believe the Derby was not a fair representation and the results closer to anamoly then the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers may not be as strong a wager as would otherwise appear. Gasp, Shriek...\"An Anamoly\"? What the heck is he talking about? Those top four horses were golden. Or were they?

The favorite will be Bluegrass Cat. At 3-1 he is about a PUSH and thats if one can really expect his Derby race. Will he be 3-1? Guessing he will, maybe a little shorter 5-2 perhaps.

Bluegrass Cat
Steppenwolfer
Jazil

Also coming out of the Derby are horsese that had excuses. Those horses are

Bob and John
Deputy Glitters

And then you have the horse they desperately wanted in the Derby that didn\'t make it

Sunriver

Guessing you can make up your Belmont Super if you pick correctly out of those mentioned. Certainly not implying that I have the answer yet. I\'m not.

The best bred horses in the Belmont? No doubt its Steppewolfer and Sunriver.

[jett]

Sunrivers full sister,Ashado, seemed to be most effective at a mile and an eighth.Why is everyone speculating that Sunriver will relish a mile and a half?--Jett

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jett Wrote:
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> Sunrivers full sister,Ashado, seemed to be most
> effective at a mile and an eighth.Why is everyone
> speculating that Sunriver will relish a mile and a
> half?--Jett

Have to agree she looked best at 9 Poles, but they don\'t ask fillies and mares to run distances anymore. 9 Poles is a marathon with the fairer equine gender.

That said, she did win the CCA Oaks at 3. That was a 10 furlong test, though it is true Storm Flag Flying ran her down at 10 poles too.

Sunriver is not bred ideally for 12 Poles, however, his breeding to find the reserves to run on at 12 poles tops most of the field significantly.

[bellsbendboy]

I think the best bred horse for the distance is BOB and JOHN. His dam is a SW and the family includes Capote, Exceller et al.  I think B&J will be favored and if you get past him you get the money.  BBB

[jett]

As of 3:30 Steppenwolfer is the 9-2 fave.BGCat at 6-1.--Jett

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> I think the best bred horse for the distance is
> BOB and JOHN. His dam is a SW and the family
> includes Capote, Exceller et al.  I think B&J
> will be favored and if you get past him you get
> the money.  BBB

1. Is that track quick right now or what? What to expect in the 8th? Maybe a track record?

2. Asmussen is on a rocket ride. Is it him or is it White Mercedes? If its the latter, best keep a close eye upon Pletcher and Ass here in.

3. Seeking the Gold ain\'t a bad sire at all. He\'s not in the Stamina league of a Vaguely Noble though. Still, agree that Bob and John should play a large role.

[marcus]

i\'m going w/ dg to run a new top today , I like b+j to run back - but not all the way . cat figures within a point of his top +gives round , stpnwlfr about the same as that .  in the 13th race , rab also looks  interesting - lucky 13 ...

[J-DUB]

      CtC,
           I like your Derby runner scenario the best but for a different reason. I think they are among the ones most likely to actually finish the 1 1/2 miles. Throw out the numbers in this race and use those who can run that far period. In no particular order:

        Bluegrass Cat
        Steppenwolfer
        Jazil
        Deputy Glitters
        Bob and John