Belmont rundown pre post draw

[big18741]

I\'m likely to go back for more Bob and John money.

Tossing his Derby-hoping he gets back to his Wood #.Baffert doesn\'t usually chase these kind of races if he isn\'t live-4 bullet works have me thinking the colt is sound and ready to fire.Don\'t know about the distance,but he\'ll be in position trip wise to win the race between the 6f and 1 mile mark where Belmonts are almost always won.Hoping for 6-1-win play and using over five others.

Bluegrass Cat-want to toss but can\'t.30-1 at Churchill with a perfect trip and ride by Dominguez-now will be 3-1? with JR.Should handle the distance with AP on the bottom-loves the surface.Hoping for a bounce off the Derby effort and he hasn\'t really fired two big efforts back to back yet,but he does have 5 weeks between races and should get a decent trip with his tactical speed.

Deputy Glitters-don\'t like Glitterman on the bottom-suspect at the distance.Buried Derby and a good TB race.Great rider change,long on the tote,and running style keep him in the underneath mix if the track is fast.Excellent work yesterday over the strip.

Hemingways Key-finally got back to his 2yo top-inching forward for Zito-his horses seem to perk up when they train at Saratoga-Nick is usually around the board in this race-Rose saves ground-don\'t know about the distance,but with a post and double digit odds I have to use.

Sunriver-hoping for a 12 post so I can chuck him.Probably a new top? in the Pan and only 3 weeks rest,but he still appears tough to budge off the board.Don\'t want to use him at his odds,but hard to toss.

Sacred Light-slow,but I\'m using anyway.This race always finds clunk up horses that hit the tri or super at odds.Good connections-Victor 1st time up-Hofmans wouldn\'t waste him here-I think a check isn\'t impossible with a good post.

Probably tossing the rest:

Steppenwolfer(wiseguy horse)and Jazil slow and overbet clunk up horses-these types never win this race unless the pace is insane(Editors Note) Outside posts and I get rid of both.

OH So Awesome-somewhere between My Memoirs and Dr Greenfield which probably isn\'t good enough.Like the trainer-don\'t like the rider.

High Finance-no two year old bottom-no two turns-he\'s not Bernardini and this isn\'t the Preakness distance.Don\'t know how fast he ran in his last two-don\'t care.His father was a nutjob-doubt this one will take to the rate and relax needed to succeed here with Double Galore sitting on his flank.

Double Galore-A similar looking Nolans Cat hit the tri here last year,but that was from off the pace.This one will get chewed up near the front-empty late

Platinum Couple-think he needs more than blinkers

[Kasept]

Liked everything up until the Steppenwolfer/Jazil segment..

\"These types\" will be 12-15 lengths closer to the leaders here than in their races at shorter distances.. 6f in 1:13 is slightly different than 6f in 1:10.

Peitz and Kieran have a handle on where they are with this pair and both will be striding out when the rest are shortening to baby steps. The biggest knock I have on \'Wolfer is Albarado, who could screw up a wet dream. The Lows would undoubtedly love to get stallion credentials with their Aptitude colt, and Peitz has been judicious as can be asking his charge for his biggest effort. It comes Saturday.

And Jazil is just plain plucky..

Leaving for Elmont later today..

Hope some of you caught last week\'s \"At the Races\" with John Nerud.. Listen on the Archives.. http://www.attheracesandbeyond.com/schedule_2006_June.html

McLaughlin, Nack and much more today, Thurs, Fri.. Sirius 125, 4-7pm EST or through the website: http://www.attheracesandbeyond.com


Steve
http://www.derbytrail.com

[ezgoer89]

big18741 Wrote:
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Don\'t know about the distance,but he\'ll be in position
trip wise to win the race between the 6f and 1
mile mark where Belmonts are almost always
won.

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Isn\'t this notion becoming a perpetuated myth like \"The
Euros don\'t run well in the BC when the weather is hot?\"

Go to the Belmont website and watch the videos of Birdstone,
Sarava, Lemon Drop Kid, Victory Gallop, Colonial Affair and
Touch Gold (plus watch Strike the Gold come from the clouds
to lose by a nose), none of whom is making a big move at the
3/4 or 1/2 mile pole. I don\'t think you want to be 15 lengths
out on the turn, but you can certainly win this race with a
move down the stretch.

For every Risen Star, Point Given, Easy Goer, and Afleet Alex,
there is a horse making a move down the stretch.

[big18741]

Steve

Like you on the show-enjoy the guests very much-but JJ and his partner are weak on interviews-they don\'t seem to ask the right questions.Just some constructive criticism.

I think with High Finance and Double Galore-the pace will be 1:12 or so maybe even a tick faster-1:11 and change.They won\'t want to go that fast,but neither looks like the rating type IMO.They sort of compromise each other.

[big18741]

Other than Victory Gallop who was 7 lengths back after 6 furlongs-every other winner in the last thirteen years was within 4 lengths or less thru 6f\'s if I\'m not mistaken.

[ezgoer89]

big18741 Wrote:
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> Other than Victory Gallop who was 7 lengths back
> after 6 furlongs-every other winner in the last
> thirteen years was within 4 lengths or less thru
> 6f\'s if I\'m not mistaken.

The DRF has no call on the chart at the 6f mark for a 12f race.

Birdstone was five lengths behind after 8f and three and a half lengths out after 10f.  

Lemon Drop Kid was 8th by five lengths after 8f.

Editor\'s Note was 5th by five and a half lengths after 8f.  

Colonial Affair was 5th by four lengths after 8f.

Strike The Gold was 7th by seven and a half lengths after 8f and lost by a head (I know this is 15 years ago, but still).

I don\'t think you want to be far far back on the turn, but you don\'t need to make a winning move 4f to 6f from the wire.

[richiebee]

...I was wondering what Saturday\'s feature at Belmont was. If the lack of \"belmont buzz\" on this board is any indication, and the long term wet weather forecast is accurate, NYRA could unfortunately be in for a disappointing day on Saturday.

   There is usually a solid undercard, and with a 12 horse Belmont, there should be some good betting opportunities.

   My early impressions:

   Bluegrass Cat: Rider\'s fitness a question at 12 marks? Did the rider return from injury too quickly to ride in this spot?

   Sunriver: A Belmont placing makes for some valuable Goulash. Bejarano at top of his game right now.

   B and J: What to make of the California colts in this years Triple Crown races? Jock has ridden the big oval very well over the last few weeks. Gomez and Baffert assure this colt, who should be 10/1 or above, will go off half of that.

   Hemingways Key: Notebook at 12 marks?

   Jazil: A colt who likes to take himself back early no matter what the pace is. Any attempt to put him closer early could backfire badly IMO.

   Deputy Glitters: Fascinating possibility (slim) that Albertrani could saddle 2 different longshot Triple Crown winners.

   Others: Tri and Super only.

[TGJB]

EZ-- on top of which, the ones you mention at the end won by a pole. If you\'re that much better you\'re not just going to be making the lead with 100 yards to go.

Which is not to say closing is an advantage, just that running style doesn\'t make much difference.