3 YO NEG Top Study

[NoCarolinaTony]

P E.

That was point exactly when I started this string. It\'s amazing what you can do with data and draw conclusions from it. Right, Wrong, or  indifferent intnetioned or un-intentioned one will draw conclusions if time after time you get a similar result, but each instance is a case study in and of itself. It takes dicipline to not get sucked into  data trends and draw absolute conclusions when in the end it\'s just data, and no trend exists at all.

Same goes for Track Bias. No Bias exists if even one horse ran well on the  so called biased part of the track (ie inside  of the track on derby day for example) because quite a few did run well and some even won on the rail. It may not have been ideal, but it was not an absolute either.

NC Tony

[TGJB]

P. Eck-- define \"profitable level stake system\".

[NoCarolinaTony]

TGJB

After seeing yesterdays disaster. I retract everything I said. It\'s absolutely dangerous to push horses to run so fast so early.

I had to admit I cried yesterday!!

NC Tony

[BitPlayer]

The points made by P. Eckhart about the 3yo negative top study are interesting.  I think you could also argue for rules throwing out the Derby when it\'s the subsequent start (because it produces an unusually high proportionate number of off and X races) and for throwing out cases where a horse is stretched out after earning the negative top.

How did you come up with the parameters for the study?  Why, for example, start at -1?

[TGJB]

We used neg 1 because it was clear that at that level horses started reacting differently, and because if we used a bigger number the sample size would be a good deal smaller. Since we did the study there have been at least 2 more 3yos that have run that fast (one being Barbaro), and the score is now 33 examples, no new tops, 3 pairs (one on 77 days rest), the rest worse, with Too Much Bling getting his chance this weekend, on 2 months rest. Compare this (10% combined new tops and pairs) to any group of 3yos hitting a new top that\'s slower-- the Thoro-Patterns give you some examples.