California goes totally poly in 2007

[asfufh]

\"I don\'t want to pretend that the injury would not have happened if there had been Polytrack (at Pimlico), but racing can no longer get along with saying that\'s all part of horse racing,\" said Craig Fravel, the executive vice president of the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club. \"I think our actions in California will show the way for a lot of people around the country.\"

http://sports.excite.com/news/05262006/v3846.html

[richiebee]

Will be interested to see if this is the cure for California\'s horse shortage.

Everyone knows that Polyestertrack will have an immediate positive effect on attendance and handle.

Are the California trainers who are pointing towards the Triple Crown going to prep for those races training and racing over Poly?

Hate to be so skeptical about revolutionary change to racing and handicapping, but school is still out IMO on whether Poly will enhance the well being of racehorses specifically and racing in general.

Must say a great selling job by those who will profit from further proliferation of artificial racing surfaces.

For those keeping score, Cal tracks, Keeneland and Woodbine will all be Polyesterized by the end of 07. Maybe this will be a windfall for NYRA, as they will draw more breeders/owners/trainers who want to race on natural surfaces, and bettors who prefer traditional surfaces to rubber ones.

[miff]

Richiebee,

Not sure that Polys--t will have \"an immediate positive effect on attendance and handle\". I believe it will have an initial negative effect on handle at least in the short term.Hoping that NYRA will hold out but no telling who will be in control when that discussion gets serious.

Interesting statistic that 19 broke down in NY from Jan 06 until now.In three consecutive racing days during the innertube meet,a total of four NYB 3yr old 25K maiden claiming filly snails broke down.If memory serves none of them ever broke 20 on TG.

Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

asfufh Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"I don\'t want to pretend that the injury would not
> have happened if there had been Polytrack (at
> Pimlico), but racing can no longer get along with
> saying that\'s all part of horse racing,\" said
> Craig Fravel, the executive vice president of the
> Del Mar Thoroughbred Club. \"I think our actions in
> California will show the way for a lot of people
> around the country.\"
>
>

Fine, let them install it. Why is another issue entirely. Because Barbaro came unglued at Pimlico? Old Hilltop is not a bad track.

Oh, and though they may install it, don\'t count upon the bettors wagering upon it. Turfway is on its own. Keeneland and the Krazy Kalifornians to follow. Theres still NYRA, Churchill, Illinois and most of the Atlantic Coast tracks for Real Fans and Devotees of the Glorious Sport of Horse Racing to wager upon.

Goodbye Kalifornia, Hello Simulcasting.

[richiebee]

Mike:

    Was absolutely being sarcastic when I said Polydrek would increase handle and attendance.

    The Polydrekization of racing will not affect my wagering all that much. I would say that bets I make on racing outside of New York account for less than 2% of what I push through the machines, and most of that would be live appearances at MTH and some Fair Grounds wagers.

    If Polydrek came to the NYRA tracks, they probably lose me altogether. The only place Poly might have a place at NYRA is if they try an experiment and run over Poly instead of the Inner Dirt (some people would say that the Inner surface is also synthetic) for a couple of winters

    The other problems facing the Game are much larger than the surface on which the Game is played. The lack of growth in the fan base is a problem. Another aspect of racing as it is which bothers me is that breeders and pinhookers are doing better than most successful owners and trainers; the reason that this bothers me is that young animals will be asked to show bursts of speed before they are ready; this will result in additional medication being administered to 2YOs. The proliferation of cosmetic surgeries which make crooked yearlings look \"straighter\" will also I believe be part of the problem.

    There are of course racetrack ownership issues. There\'s Mr. Stronach, who I think will eventually leave the racetrack ownership business altogether. You might convince me that he would liquidate all and hold on to the Shoppes at GP and try to acquire NYRA (Didn\'t he put a brand new surface down at Santa? And now he\'s being told he has to replace it?). But if the construction of the Aqueduct Casino continues at its present pace, Magna may not even be interested.

    I am going to try to get some stats. In the last 20 years, how many racetracks conducted racing? How many races were run at these tracks? Next question: Number of foals born each year over the last 20 years? Question 3: How many of these foals ever make the races?

    My guesses: Less tracks, less races. As many or more foals, but a smaller percentage of them making it to the races. I\'ll report back.

    I think what bothers me is if that all the money in the T-Bred business is being made on the Green Monkeys and the home-run pinhooks, the end user, the owners who purchase racing stock, will end up with lots of expensive stock which will never be capable of winning out purse-wise on the track.

    Today\'s brainstorm: Honey Ryder, a big favorite in the Sheepshead Bay Hcp today at Bel, is 0 for 5 over Belmont turf courses, including a 5th place finish last year in the Sheepshead Bay (DRF says that race was run over Widener Turf Course last year??). A vulnerable highweighted favorite at odds of 6/5 or so? We shall see.

   

[miff]

Richiebee said:


\"Was absolutely being sarcastic when I said Polydrek would increase handle and attendance.\"


Rich,

My gut was that you were kidding.Re California, they have been dealing with short fields for some time.They do not have enough circuits to draw from like New York.Polys--t is their last hope to salvage field size, nothing more.

The most important thing is, as usual, Racetrack operators never even considered how there traditional customers might react to this dramatic switch to an unknown quantity. A decent sized group of NY players have the ear of NYRA re polys--t, but who knows who will end up owning NY racing.

Management knows they can stop/slowdown some breakdowns with extra surface maintenance and super testing for the magic bullet, et al.The ongoing cost of such an undertaking is what stops them and makes them champion this new surface.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

A few small bets on horses running on Polydust should be enough to convince serious horse bettors that the stuff is not wagerable.

Turfway Park only offered one National Race of Note, The Lanes End/Jim Beam, whatever its current incarnation is. Which is the last good horse to come out of that race and make a serious impact upon the Division? Don\'t Say Balto Star, he didn\'t.

Could be Hansel. Guess Birdstone would have to be mentioned here.

Though its generally not a stellar race, this year\'s Poly Version of the Lanes End was comical for the lack of quality. Perchance the trainers are already voting with their entries.  

Let them run on Polydust, but don\'t expect us to bet upon it.

The horses here break down
and the sky is grey
I\'ve been betting NYRA
on a winter\'s day

They\'d be safe and warm
If they raced in L.A
They\'re Kalifornia Dreamin\'
on such a winter\'s day

I stopped by to see the clerk
and cashed again today
then, I got down on my knees
and I began to pray

you know the bettors like the cold
and that they\'re gonna stay.
Kalifornia Dreamin\'
on such a winter\'s day

The horses here break down
and the sky is grey
At NYRA theres no Poly
and its the bestest way

If polydust was here too
They could leave today
They\'re Kalifornia Dreamin\'
on such a winter\'s day




richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike:
>
>     Was absolutely being sarcastic when I said
> Polydrek would increase handle and attendance.
>
>     The Polydrekization of racing will not affect
> my wagering all that much. I would say that bets I
> make on racing outside of New York account for
> less than 2% of what I push through the machines,
> and most of that would be live appearances at MTH
> and some Fair Grounds wagers.
>
>     If Polydrek came to the NYRA tracks, they
> probably lose me altogether. The only place Poly
> might have a place at NYRA is if they try an
> experiment and run over Poly instead of the Inner
> Dirt (some people would say that the Inner surface
> is also synthetic) for a couple of winters
>
>     The other problems facing the Game are much
> larger than the surface on which the Game is
> played. The lack of growth in the fan base is a
> problem. Another aspect of racing as it is which
> bothers me is that breeders and pinhookers are
> doing better than most successful owners and
> trainers; the reason that this bothers me is that
> young animals will be asked to show bursts of
> speed before they are ready; this will result in
> additional medication being administered to 2YOs.
> The proliferation of cosmetic surgeries which make
> crooked yearlings look \"straighter\" will also I
> believe be part of the problem.
>
>     There are of course racetrack ownership
> issues. There\'s Mr. Stronach, who I think will
> eventually leave the racetrack ownership business
> altogether. You might convince me that he would
> liquidate all and hold on to the Shoppes at GP and
> try to acquire NYRA (Didn\'t he put a brand new
> surface down at Santa? And now he\'s being told he
> has to replace it?). But if the construction of
> the Aqueduct Casino continues at its present pace,
> Magna may not even be interested.
>
>     I am going to try to get some stats. In the
> last 20 years, how many racetracks conducted
> racing? How many races were run at these tracks?
> Next question: Number of foals born each year over
> the last 20 years? Question 3: How many of these
> foals ever make the races?
>
>     My guesses: Less tracks, less races. As many
> or more foals, but a smaller percentage of them
> making it to the races. I\'ll report back.
>
>     I think what bothers me is if that all the
> money in the T-Bred business is being made on the
> Green Monkeys and the home-run pinhooks, the end
> user, the owners who purchase racing stock, will
> end up with lots of expensive stock which will
> never be capable of winning out purse-wise on the
> track.
>
>     Today\'s brainstorm: Honey Ryder, a big
> favorite in the Sheepshead Bay Hcp today at Bel,
> is 0 for 5 over Belmont turf courses, including a
> 5th place finish last year in the Sheepshead Bay
> (DRF says that race was run over Widener Turf
> Course last year??). A vulnerable highweighted
> favorite at odds of 6/5 or so? We shall see.
>
>

[imallin]

I watched that roundtable discussion that TVG had w the president of Turfway, Darrel Vienna, Bruce Headley and the guy from Del Mar (name escapes me).

Anyway, all the Del Mar guy kept saying was, \"Well, the track is safer than a regular track\"

He kept bringing up the \'safety\' issue. No matter what Vienna or Headley said, the del mar guy just was like a broken record, \"safety, safety, safety\"

Now, i know there is no one i can think of who is NOT for safety, but i believe that he\'s harping on an issue that no one can argue with.

How can you argue with a guy who says, \"yeah, but polytrack is safer\"

What do you say to that? You either have to say, \"its not safer\" or \"i don\'t care about safety\" There\'s no other argument you can really use.

I will say this.....as far as i know, tracks hardly ever do something that\'s NOT going to generate handle.  Polytrack is a project that is not designed to increase betting...although, Turfway has shown profits since installing it.

Personally, i did wager some on Turfway. I just wanted to become familiar with polytack because i know its the wave of the future.

California is notorious for speed favoring tracks....with the installation of Polytrack, i can\'t imagine it will be MORE speed favoring. The races currently at Hollywood are very hard to bet. Its almost impossible to gain ground. Once horses establish position they just maintain that all the way. The only way a closer wins if there\'s an absolute cut throat duel AND the horses are bad. I\'ve seen cutthroat duels where the top 2 horses go all the way around the track and both hit the tri or super.

To increase the soundness of horses at Hollywood, they should just make all races 2 furlongs.....no need running the extra 4F because whoever has the lead after 2 wins anyway, why burn the horses up running an extra 4 when the running positions aren\'t going to change.

As a handicapper, i\'d like it better if not all 3 major so cal tracks did the same thing...that way i can play against polytrack horses who look great on paper when they go back to the conventional surface.

[marcus]

Nice post rb - so if i understand correctly , this is the equivelent racing punting on third down ? Seems like alot of money to spend ( on the poly tracks ) just to be able to make excuses in advance ( for racing ) though . I\'m going to guess a way will be found to pass the cost of installing the new tracks on somehow . One thing fairly amazing to me that I take away from reading your post is - with all the talk and grandstanding about tradition in the sport recently , we have the poly issue  ...

In the Sheepheads Bay , I\'m looking at a couple of horse\'s to beat the fav today - 2nd off lay off Angara looks most interesting and Noble Stella gets a little weight and could surprise a few people if her form can come back to a race after  2 cycle\'s of circling out . I\'m doing the Bris qualifier today and maybe if I don\'t bet any of those races , they\'ll all come in ...

[Blind Switch]

With all your posts, when do you have time to handicap and wager?

\"I like cigars, but I take them out of my mouth once in a while\" -Groucho