Beware of California Favorites!

[Delmar Deb]

First of all, whatever trouble BD had going wide on the first turn could have been avoided if Solis had used his horse after he broke from the gate like a quarter horse (look at the aerial view for confirmation) instead of deciding to take back.  But even if he had done this, I don\'t believe it would have made any difference in the outcome.

Watching 4 and 5 horse stakes races in California does one thing for you...it makes you very leary of betting any favorite who has had it all their own way whether on the lead or circling the field (usually 3-wide at most) to accumulate their wins.  

Gary Stevens talks about Point Given being hopelessly wide all the way in his Derby, and no matter how great he may have been in California, going wide for the entire Derby is like being on another planet.  He ran in small fields that he overwhelmed with his size and ability, not a great training ground for what he was to face.

When Officer went to Belmont for the Juvenile BC and ran against Johannesburg, I kept picturing the race tapes of Johannesburg barrelling out of a pack of 15 or more horses while going uphill at the finish.  Could Officer compete against this?  I think not!

Finally, look at the size of the fields that Barbaro faced - including the incredible feat of winning the Florida Derby from the 10 hole going 1 1/8 at Gulfstream - and compare that to BD\'s record.  In fact, the largest field BD faced was a race he lost.

Twenty years ago, I used to say the same things about the eastern handicap horses who came west to run in our stampedes.  Either way, in handicapping the race, I will always take a horse likely to run back to his \"1\" earned in a large field over another who posted his \"1\" in a small field - particularly in California.

And this from a native Californian no less!  

[Silver Charm]

debbie,

good point, but the Solis ride was brutal. this was one of the more predictable patterns going into the derby. good guy, hard worker just not in the same league as gary, chris or pval, still......

the east-west debate never gets settled until they do on it the playing field. the best horse won and barbaro wasn\'t from the east or west but rather another planet with that perfromance.

[richiebee]

For years my regional bias has prevented me from embracing California horses in the Derby. The last time I liked left coasters was actually in 1980, when I thought Rumbo and Jaklin Klugman could take it to a pair of bad favorites, Plugged Nickle and Rockhill Native, which they did; unfortunately, they ran 2nd and 3rd behind Genuine Risk.

This year it was almost like I bet the Derby like a March Madness pool. I thought the Cal horses were from the strongest \"conference\". The performances of 2 of the \"teams\" when they left the conference, Bob and John and Sinister Minister, were winning ones. My wiseguy angle was to toss out the \"top seed\", Brother Derek.

Another tough year. Another \"maiden\" trainer winning the Derby (a very deserving one). Another non effort by a brace of horses from a  Derby training legend (Baffert) (amazing that Zito went from 5 entrants in 05 to none in 06, a bad year of recruiting).

Also tough from a numbers standpoint, with 7 or 8 of the 20 runners seemingly capable of running a number fast enough to win.

I hope we have a Triple Crown candidate coming out of Baltimore. Racing (and New York racing) could use the boost

 

[Dana666]

Well, I don\'t think anyone can or should take anything away from Barbaro; however, and I said this in an earlier post before the derby, taking Brother Derek out of his style was a losing proposition. No one can say he would have beaten Barbaro, but his style would have played VERY WELL into the race flow and track bias that day. The track favored outside speed/stalkers and BD would have had the perfect trip. That being said, I\'ve seen Solis do this a thousand times in races, and he often gets away with it because he usually rides the superior horse in small fields in California, not the case in the derby. I guess only the Preakness will tell for sure if BD is really legit, provided he goes in that race. I\'ll never for the life of me understand why trainers and riders always want to SLOW horses down when the fastest horse wins the race. Do they sit down before the race and say, \"now, how do we get our colt to run slower? He\'s always running so fast, and we can\'t have that!\" Sometimes horses are just so much smarter than people.

[ronwar]

I think if BD got the same trip Barbaro got he would have been impressive to.  

[P-Dub]

Delmar Deb Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First of all, whatever trouble BD had going wide
> on the first turn could have been avoided if Solis
> had used his horse after he broke from the gate
> like a quarter horse (look at the aerial view for
> confirmation) instead of deciding to take back.
> But even if he had done this, I don\'t believe it
> would have made any difference in the outcome.

For Brother Derek to finish 4th with the trip he had, I would say that was still impressive whether or not Solis gave him a questionable ride. You\'re entitled to your opinion,  but you have no way of knowing whether a more competent ride would have made no difference.
>
> Watching 4 and 5 horse stakes races in California
> does one thing for you...it makes you very leary
> of betting any favorite who has had it all their
> own way whether on the lead or circling the field
> (usually 3-wide at most) to accumulate their wins.

Real Quiet ran against short fields in his preps, it didn\'t keep him from coming within a nose of a Triple Crown.

 
> Gary Stevens talks about Point Given being
> hopelessly wide all the way in his Derby, and no
> matter how great he may have been in California,
> going wide for the entire Derby is like being on
> another planet.  He ran in small fields that he
> overwhelmed with his size and ability, not a great
> training ground for what he was to face.

Then how do you explain Point Given winning 2/3 of the Triple Crown??


>
> When Officer went to Belmont for the Juvenile BC
> and ran against Johannesburg, I kept picturing the
> race tapes of Johannesburg barrelling out of a
> pack of 15 or more horses while going uphill at
> the finish.  Could Officer compete against this?
> I think not!

That had nothing to do with Officer running poorly.  He was strictly a bet against that day whether or not Johannesburg was in the race or not.
>
> Finally, look at the size of the fields that
> Barbaro faced - including the incredible feat of
> winning the Florida Derby from the 10 hole going 1
> 1/8 at Gulfstream - and compare that to BD\'s
> record.  In fact, the largest field BD faced was a
> race he lost.

The largest field you are referring to was when he was a 2YO. I would think he is a completely different horse now. Lots of good horses have run poorly in a Breeders Cup Juvenile.
>
> Twenty years ago, I used to say the same things
> about the eastern handicap horses who came west to
> run in our stampedes.  Either way, in handicapping
> the race, I will always take a horse likely to run
> back to his \"1\" earned in a large field over
> another who posted his \"1\" in a small field -
> particularly in California.

How then do you explain Broad Brush winning the Big Cap around 20 yrs or so ago??
>

We can hypothesize all day about why something may have happened. Barbaro got a great trip and was a most deserving winner. That shouldn\'t take away anything from Brother Derek or minimize his talents.  One race doesn\'t make a career, lets see what happens throughout the year before we dismiss BD as a horse who benefitted from short fields.

[JJP]

\"Real Quiet ran against short fields in his preps; it didn\'t keep him from coming within a nose of a Triple Crown.\"

But he wasn\'t helped by the short fields.  Indian Charlie was the one who benefitted from being lone speed in the SA Derby.  Real Quiet was forced to close into the slow pace IC set, and ran a great race at SA.  Indian Charlie won the race but had the perfect trip.  Real Quiet, to trip handicappers, ran the superior race.  And he verified that when they met up again in Louisville.

[P-Dub]

Wouldn\'t short fields help him close while facing less traffic?? The premise didn\'t specifically state front runners, it was horses in general and the point was that they have easy trips. Also the implied message is that they aren\'t prepared to face large fields. Its a generalization that doesn\'t always have merit.  Brother Derek didn\'t lose because he ran against smaller fields in Cal.