2006 Kentucky Derby Pros and Cons

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its called Pari Mutual wagering for a reason. It means \"among ourselves\" and we don\'t have to share the same opinion. If we did it would make for a very boring event.

What follows helps me focus and put into thought impressions that strike me at a gutteral level. It helps me, if it helps inform others fine, but take what I say with a grain of salt and don\'t let your own strong opinions be swayed. This is my personal view, Pro, Con or both for all the entries in the field. That said my mind could even change before the race. I am still looking at it and it is clearly one of the most interesting and difficult Kentucky Derbies I have ever handicapped. If you win this Derby I believe you can proclaim: \"I won the toughest Derby of them all.\" I hope I can join you in that announcement.

Now the field:

1. Jazil...This one is a bit of an enigma to me. He most certainly will not pull the same trip he got in the Wood and that alone will be difficult for him to overcome. Its also possible he got a wet track jump in the Wood, but he was a good horse vs. Corinthian prior to that, which tends to indicate he ran his race in the Wood. To my eye he\'s much more competitive than Giacomo was last year and if the hot pace develops he certainly could hit the exotics. I probably will play him (Even this depends upon the early race results) very minimally in 2nd and in 3rd and 4th only within the tougher exotics. The knock against him is that Scanlon\'s Song also closed in the Wood. Hunch is the Wood close was illusory and trip added.

2. Steppenwolfer...A horse whose sire liked the track and who has run well with trouble. If the pace meltdown occurs you have to factor him. I think theres better perfecta horses, but he could wind up as high as 2nd for me.

3. Keyed Entry...Depending on the track and his pace decision he could hit the exotics. Currently 4th is as high as I can remotely see him and he could cave.

4. Sinister Minister...Freak or Geek? Keeneland is so notorious for producing one run busts. No position taken.

5. Point Determined...I don\'t think as highly of Brother Derek and A.P. Warrior as others. If I don\'t how can this horse really be that highly regarded to plunge significant money upon? He\'s still eligible for a NW2X. He doesn\'t look like his daddy either. He could do it. I won\'t rule him out. But for some reason, I\'m not afraid of him amd he won\'t take my best intended wagers.

6. Showing Up, I\'m still studying this horse. Barclay Tagg is no Todd Pletcher, Dale Romans or Dick Dutrow. The mere fact that he apparently is going to run speaks volumes. The slow Lexington time doesn\'t bother me in the least. I also am gaining the highest regard for Lael Stables. Apparently horsemanship matters to them. He will be on my ticket, deliberating where and how heavily.

7. Bob and John...I believe this horse has more ability and a better pattern than most do. One of my perfecta box horses. He could win.

8. Barbaro...Working great. Big horse. Still think his best was bias aided, but I will use him minimally under and over my key.

9. Sharp Humor...I will let this one beat me. He\'s gonna be 40-1. If he can get the lead, I suppose that moves him up. Caveat note how slow he came home in the Swale when he had to battle for the lead.

10. A.P.Warrior...you can\'t bet them all. You have to draw some lines somewhere, mine dares him to cross it.

11. Sweetnorthernsaint...I clearly like this horse and will have him atop perfectas, just not sure hes my key.

12. Private Vow, not sure what everyone sees in this horse. To me he appears a bit headstrong and prone to fade when things don\'t go his way. Too Slow too.

to be continued...

Following the Rest of the Field

 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

13. Bluegrass Cat...Out of a full sister to Accellerator. Said mare has already dropped a good horse in Lord of the Game. That one was by Saint Ballado however. This time you\'ve got Storm Cat on the top side. Thought he was in the B League as a 2YO, clearly has not demonstrated hes a top flight 3YO either in results or performance figures. If you play him, you\'re projecting a big forward move over a strip he doesn\'t appear to be handling. Tall Order.

14. Deputy Glitters...If you like Bluegrass Cat you have to love this guy. Clearly has come loose upon slop surfaces. He could catch a piece.

15. Seaside Retreat...Lemons Forever just proved real horses sometimes do run at Turfway. Doubt this one is in the same league.

16. Cause to Believe...I\'m not sure one can identify where the Cause is upon which to Believe. He just as easily could be referred to as the \"Faith Horse\". Have faith he\'ll close as effectively at real ground as he did upon those lightning Northern Kalifornia tracks. Have faith the Illinois Derby was a fluke. Have faith he\'s really not a work horse and that he\'s not showing a disinclination for the Churchill Surface. I will say this, if you genuinely Believe in this horse, you should look real hard at the stretch run of the Kalifornia Derby and ask yourself one question: \"Do I feel lucky?\"

17. Lawyer Ron...I\'ve read opinions that outside is good for him. I don\'t see it quite that way. His confrontation with Brother Derek is going to be interesting. I think hes a good horse, but the conditions will have me downgrading him. Mininal use with my key. I am worried about him.

18. Brother Derek...I sure dont see him getting to the lead from that post with these. If it happens I suppose his stock moves WAY up. I don\'t think he\'s quick enough to do it, but thats an individual call for the bettor.

19. Storm Treasure...This one is my clunk up special. Don\'t see him winning, but think he\'s a much better bet than Private Vow for an exotics bomb.

20. Flashy Bull...I bet him in the Florida Derby. Once bitten twice shy. Besides I\'m convinced Jazil is a better horse.

[tmcdevitt]

So, the pick is...........

[richiebee]

...to be revealed some time after 6:04 PM (LOL)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol

I have to see the track first. Probably won\'t know for sure until the 8th is run.

I\'m leaning SoS or Sinister Minister.

If the track comes up dull, I could change that entirely though.

[miff]

Chuck,

Filly division went 2/5 faster yesterday than todays colt Ist race.Winner wired towards inside also today,interesting so far, but just one race.

Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Filly division went 2/5 faster yesterday than
> todays colt Ist race.Winner wired towards inside
> also today,interesting so far, but just one race.
>
> Mike


Yeah, the two year olds are a little tough to gage. Maybe the girls are even a bit more precocious. Wire to wire doesn\'t concern me. They were the two choices and a long odds closer didnt finish far back.