sweetnorthernsaint

[alm]

Every owner places his horses where they can win the biggest purses they are capable of winning.  It should be no surprise that many of the most successful 3yos race in California, year after year.  The purses are generally bigger.  I look to California first for my Derby selections because of this and those horses have come through with regularity.

Not only do I want my Derby selections to compete against the best (starting with California), I want a trainer proven capable of beating the others, based on experience.  Novice trainers need not apply for inclusion.

The SA Derby was Dan Hendricks Kentucky Derby.  It likely meant as much to him as the KY Derby means to Bob Baffert, so Brother Derek was probably as cranked as Hendricks could get him going into that race.  Baffert's horse on the other hand was very likely NOT cranked, since his goal is the KY Derby.

Baffert's two other 3 YOs likewise were probably not wound up for the SA Derby and, given the obvious pace scenario there, he decided to send them elsewhere against what he probably considered to be inferior packs of 3 YOs.

In winning both of those races, relatively easily, he not only proved the quality of the horses running in California this year, but he also got to tighten the screws on BJ and SM in the process.  These were very nice paid workouts.

Don't over think this one.  Just look at the results in the Bluegrass and the Wood and bet against Baffert at your peril.  He's been there.  He's proven he knows how to prepare them.  He's won it before and will win it again.

This year box a Baffert exacta and key a box of his three in tris and supers on top of five other choices and you may collect a set of big numbers.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

alm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Every owner places his horses where they can win
> the biggest purses they are capable of winning.
> It should be no surprise that many of the most
> successful 3yos race in California, year after
> year.  The purses are generally bigger.  I look to
> California first for my Derby selections because
> of this and those horses have come through with
> regularity.
>
> Not only do I want my Derby selections to compete
> against the best (starting with California), I
> want a trainer proven capable of beating the
> others, based on experience.  Novice trainers need
> not apply for inclusion.
>
> The SA Derby was Dan Hendricks Kentucky Derby.  It
> likely meant as much to him as the KY Derby means
> to Bob Baffert, so Brother Derek was probably as
> cranked as Hendricks could get him going into that
> race.  Baffert's horse on the other hand was very
> likely NOT cranked, since his goal is the KY
> Derby.
>
> Baffert's two other 3 YOs likewise were probably
> not wound up for the SA Derby and, given the
> obvious pace scenario there, he decided to send
> them elsewhere against what he probably considered
> to be inferior packs of 3 YOs.
>
> In winning both of those races, relatively easily,
> he not only proved the quality of the horses
> running in California this year, but he also got
> to tighten the screws on BJ and SM in the process.
>  These were very nice paid workouts.
>
> Don't over think this one.  Just look at the
> results in the Bluegrass and the Wood and bet
> against Baffert at your peril.  He's been there.
> He's proven he knows how to prepare them.  He's
> won it before and will win it again.
>
> This year box a Baffert exacta and key a box of
> his three in tris and supers on top of five other
> choices and you may collect a set of big
> numbers.

Actually the California purses are dropping vs. other circuits and last I checked they were not among the top circuits. Its still not a bad place to run a good horse, but other than Bro Derek they are all Kentucky horses anyway.

Note the Florida Derby and the Arkansas Derby were the highest purse preps.

Betting Baffert isn\'t exactly betting Kalifornia. He preps wherever. You could say hes not been especially successful in Kalifornia this year and it has nothing to do with the purse structure and quality of horses hes faced out there. Even Real Quiet and Silver Charm didn\'t do their best running out West. Its not like the horses beating them there were their betters.

 

[TGJB]

Shanahan-- my \"sarcasm\" was in response to the implication that we weren\'t careful BEFORE the BC.

[alm]

Several reactions.

A really quick survey of purses:

Allowance NW 3 at route: SA 62,000, CD 58,000 minus 12,000, Gulf 37,000
Allowance NW 2 at route: SA 58,000, CD 54,000 minus 11,000, Gulf 33,000
MSW:                     SA 50,000, CD 50,000 minus 12,000, Gulf 32,000

Southern California, for a good horse, is still the top or close to it in purses.  (By the way, the minus numbers at Churchill are the added monies that get paid only to KY breds, which makes the purses much lower there.)

My point isn\'t about where the horse is born, but where an owner will race a good horse.  He has a better shot at good purses all through the early part of a career in Southern Cal.

It doesn\'t matter that the FLA Derby or other races have purses the same size as Cal races.  Those are single incidents.  If I can\'t win the SA Derby, I can still take down more at the races leading up to it if my horse wins.

Also, and this is a big also, you don\'t have to do a lot of shipping between the 2YO and 3YO prep races down there, whereas you have to constantly ship horses back east due to weather and the brevity of meets.  Your good 2YO has a better chance of developing without having to change environments as often.

My thinking on Baffert is really simple, probably too simple to lead to success in betting the Derby this year.  He has a national perspective...how else did he end up with Silver Charm and others without it?  He knew his two shippers had a better chance to win money and maybe races while only prepping them at Keeneland and Aqueduct because the competition there set up easier than it would in Santa Anita.

Thus, he has three improving horses going to Churchill who have each made their owners important money in the easiest races Baffert could find that fit their KY Derby preparation schedules.  

Trying to parse the differences between results at Hawthorne or Gulfstream or wherever may work out, but a lot of these horses look pretty much alike other than their trainers and what I believe their trainers intentions are or were.

Novice Derby trail trainers squeeze the lemon to win the preps because that money means a great deal to them.  Guys like Baffert know where the real payoff is and only try to win preps when they have a tremendous edge.  

I may not hit my bet, but I still think this is a year he can put a couple of them in the photo.  

[shanahan]

I see, my bad...BC took a toll on us all, but it was certainly the exception - at least in my experience - with TG product...looking forward to the Derby seminar!

[TGJB]

Shanahan-- no problem.

[TGJB]

No comment on the Baffert horses, but a) owners seldom choose where their horses will run, b) neither they nor their trainers usually have an idea of the right place to run (Baffert being an exception), c) lots of other factors besides purse size (like geography and an unwillingness to ship) determine where horses run, and d) the trainers of the last 3 Derby winners were Shirrefs, Servis, and Tagg, who didn\'t have a whole lot of Derby experience between them.

[RICH]

I\'m listening to MAMBO SUN, it fits real nice.

[alm]

I\'m an owner-breeder.  I determine exactly where my horses run.  Always have.  And for some strange reason purses mean an awful lot to me.

I could be running my best horse, a Florida bred, in soft company at Calder right now, but he can win in the NY NJ area, so that\'s where he is.

I haven\'t hit the Derby winner every year, but I have bet the winner more than 40% of the time since 1960 and kind of feel that the experienced trainer has paid off for me most of the time.  (Who here picked Giacomo and his inexperienced trainer last year?  Fluke)

We make the same point about shipping. And about Baffert.

I appreciate your not wanting to comment about his horses,but they must be pretty fair to ship a few thousand miles and destroy the local fields the way they did.  He has a perfect contingent for this year\'s field, which is loaded with speed.

He can force the pace with a lightening bolt and pick up the pieces when the front end falls apart.  I\'m not saying a Baffert exacta will happen, but there\'s a good chance it can happen and at fairly good odds.

That\'s all.