Derby impressions

[fasteddie]

It\'s that time of year,again! And the winner is....Dawn of War...oops! wrong Asmussen horse....Private Vow! I think he will move forward, and he loves CD.

Brother Derek, Barbaro, and SNS look like the real deal. Sinister Minister is fried, and Showing Up should wait for Pimlico. I\'m also giving A.P. Warrior a long look; should be fun!

[jbelfior]

FastEddie--


I\'m about to open a PRIVATE VOW window.



PS: Why does winning some B.S. race as a 2yo in November qualify a horse for \"loving Churchill Downs?\"



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Ill-bred]

Joe B-

Let us know if any Asmussen stable employees show up at that window! Otherwise I\'m tossing this horse.

[fasteddie]

Asmussen bases his horses there, and just look at his works; he WILL move forward. Does he win.....hmmmm. His odds? If he ends up under 20-1 that will mean somebody is hitting him; I want 30 or better!

[scottv]

While many might scoff at the idea of PVow running, remember Closing Argument from last year?  I would have picked that horse dead last.  Same with Invisible Ink in 2001.

Don\'t think PVow is a winner, but he is moving in the right direction and Asmussen is red hot in stakes races.

If you are playing a Super, don\'t leave him out of the bottom slots.

[Ill-bred]

fasteddie

I agree the longer the odds, the better. But the money almost always shows with that stable when they\'re live.

[jbelfior]

At my window, you get 35-1.


Seriously, now. What has PRIVATE VOW ever done to demonstrate he wants any part of a 1 1/4 against top 3 yos?

I understand that his pattern indicates he is certainly moving in the right direction. But you are talking about a horse with one lousy prep followed by an OK prep and that\'s it for 2006. And this gets him ready to run a lifetime top at a classic distance?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[richiebee]

To dust off some old unscientific blather--heresy on any performance figure bulletin board-- the 2 Dual Qualifiers in this years field are:

       Bro Derek and Private Vow

If you have to ask what a DQ is you are in the right place.

In honor of CTC, my current top 10, subject to change before my next post:

  1) SNS
  2) Bob and John
  3) Point Determined
  4) Jazil
 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To dust off some old unscientific blather--heresy
> on any performance figure bulletin board-- the 2
> Dual Qualifiers in this years field are:
>
>        Bro Derek and Private Vow
>
> If you have to ask what a DQ is you are in the
> right place.
>
> In honor of CTC, my current top 10, subject to
> change before my next post:
>
>   1) SNS
>   2) Bob and John
>   3) Point Determined
>   4) Jazil
>

I like your Top Ten Richie, but you\'re neglecting one very important one.

To me, the entire scenario lynches around his confrontations with the rail. I\'m astounded that none of the writers seem to be covering the rail issues. Why hasn\'t Baffert been asked about that behavior? It would be 50/50 you\'d get the truth out of Baffert, but the question should at least be posed to him. Horses running through the stretch, clear and on their way to winning don\'t usually introduce themselves to the rail. I\'d also like to know if Gomez picked Bob and John or Baffert picked Espinoza for the other guy. Inquiring minds want to know.
To me this is important, so I\'m going to ask the lead investigator in the thoroughbred media to try and look into it. Unless anyone here has that information. If you do don\'t be shy about speaking up.

p.s. I never paid any attention to dual qualifiers or dosage. In fact my first Derby winner (Strike the Gold) was tremendous value because he mysteriously didn\'t qualify on dosage...lol I bucked the trend.

[davidrex]

Don\'t think you have to worry about stable money showing up in this race.
What I\'ve been getting from Jerry for the longest time is;if an animal is in position to move forward...it really doesn\'t matter what the conditions or distance....said horse(G-d willing) will run something on or close to anticipated #.
Don\'t put too much weight on Questions we can\'t clarify...have faith in the #\'s that we can quantify.

[fasteddie]

Joe B.
I\'m convinced he was going to make a winning move in the BC had the rein not broken (40 years watching races, and I\'ve never seen that before!!) Reminds me a lot like Sea Hero; good 2 yo, awful 3yo preps, including losing to a filly on the turf at GP, ran a decent race in the Blue Grass, had Beyers\' under 100 and exploded on Derby Day. Something to consider......

[Ill-bred]

I don\'t like the horse... Just commenting on trends I\'ve noticed with that stable. They bet.