Saturday recap from a Northern California perspective

[Uncle Buck]

  TGJB said in the ROTW Overview: \"Lawyer Ron is the most likely winnah...Steppenwolfer is the value in exotics...\"

Of course I played Private Vow...

I thought Kazoo was a lock too in the Commonwealth but Richie looked like a burgler being chased by a swat team out there winging.

Sun King? What a dreadful animal...Killed me...just took all the wind out of my sails...

Great call to those who alerted the board about Gaisa in the 7th from Oaklawn. I cashed good on that race but lost it all when Kazoo spit the bit...

Lawyer Ron is a freak. The McKee kid is a freak too. I think he could potentially take out half the Derby field on the first turn. I have no idea what to make of this animal...

Lastly...I could not be happier for Garret Gomez. This kid is a Super Star...Best jock in the country hands down...

[Michael D.]

Buck .....

i think mckee is one of the keys to this years derby. i think LR is the real deal, but he did finish a bit slow yesterday (forget where he finished, that was not a good group of horses). speed galore signed up for the may 6 race... if mckee gets too close to a :45 pace (assuming neutral conditions), LR could be flatter than a pancake at the wire. they all need to be rated properly in order to win, but you have a young jock in mckee, and the odds will be low. is it possible that, for the second year in a row, we see the best three year old lose in the derby because he ran too fast early?

 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Buck .....
>
> i think mckee is one of the keys to this years
> derby. i think LR is the real deal, but he did
> finish a bit slow yesterday (forget where he
> finished, that was not a good group of horses).
> speed galore signed up for the may 6 race... if
> mckee gets too close to a :45 pace (assuming
> neutral conditions), LR could be flatter than a
> pancake at the wire. they all need to be rated
> properly in order to win, but you have a young
> jock in mckee, and the odds will be low. is it
> possible that, for the second year in a row, we
> see the best three year old lose in the derby
> because he ran too fast early?
>
>

Afleet Alex didn\'t run too fast early. He had a sick race in his run up, a big effort in his final prep and was on the wrong part of the track for too long on the big day.

On the other hand, Bellamania caught the best part of the track until very late and folded like the Big Top after the elephants are out and went on to prove his mediocrity by having a loose on the lead trip at Saratoga and quitting in the last 1/8th again. The best cleaners in Korea can\'t get his wrinkles out.

Bellamania is however a very good analytical tool for how this Derby could possibly pan out.

[TGJB]

CTC-- did Bellamy Road getting stopped on after the Derby and Travers tell you anything at all?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC-- did Bellamy Road getting stopped on after
> the Derby and Travers tell you anything at all?

If you\'re saying he was off due to infirmity/injury in his Derby and Travers due to the physical pounding he took in the Wood, I\'d have to answer: \"Yeah Jerry, its possible he knocked something amiss.\" At the time everyone said Dominguez took him in hand and was blowing kisses to the crowd. Lip readers caught him talking to Bellamy in the Wood winners circle saying:  \"You\'ll look good in a blanket of roses Bellamy...even better than Slew looked.\"

He had a cannon bone issue is what I understood. Thats supposed to be an immaturity type issue that goes away with time or treatment. Did it develop into something more? If it did, I never heard.

I don\'t know. Where is Survivalist now and has he tried two turns again? To my eye, there were a lot of horses from that card that didn\'t come back. Wheres Don Six? Medallist? Forest Danger? I\'m not altogether sure that being beat up on that rock hard and lightning fast surface is evidence they ran career tops though. Did it hurt them? Yeah, on attrition it looks like maybe it did. Was Bellamy less horse in the Derby and Travers than the Wood? Well yeah, but he  faced better horses and had to run farther. He even had it all his own way in the Travers and still couldn\'t pull it off.

Did Zito not realize something was amiss? I suppose thats possible.

[TGJB]

CTC-- it\'s not about physical pounding. The whole concept behind putting figures on a graph is that maximum exertions cause reactions.

The stuff about the other horses in that race (let alone other races) not being \"good\" is irrelevant. The question has to do with the FIGURES they ran then, before, and after.

If you think BR was the same horse Derby day as in the Wood, you\'re dreaming.

[bellsbendboy]

Happy Easter JB. When you say \"maximum exertion\" I assume that is a new top. What percentage of, (or how many) Derby winners can new top back to back culminating in a Derby win? I would not think many!

[TGJB]

Bell-- If you take a listen to the last two years\' Derby seminars (available for free now on this site), we discussed several of those kind of questions, and will again this year.