Deja Vu and other ramblings

[STB]

Private purchase involving Baffert, wins Derby prep in huge performance, public writes it off as a fraud, deja vu all over again?

Meadowlands harness Thursday night, race 2. 19-1 winner. 11-1 shot 2nd, show spot goes to 58-1 piece. 1/9 shot - yes, one-to-nine shot - outta the money. Exacta comes back $80 for $2, tri $360 for a buck. You have to applaud that kind of chutzpah, no? They JUST busted a bunch of people down there for race-fixing. Yeah. I got your bust right here, pal.

Get an excited email from a friend yesterday. He likes Storm Treasure for the gimmicks in the Blue Grass. He calls me ten minutes before the race today, wants to know if I liked the horse at all. He talks me into believing the thing can run in there. I play him in tri\'s. My friend plays him underneath the faves in exactas. At the last second he calls back into Brisbet and puts him underneath Sinister Minister. Plus $10 to place. My tris go nowhere, because they all involve Zito.

This was an overreaction to Sun King - Sun King!! For Chrissakes, is there no justice in the world!! - beating me the race before. At the eight pole I was counting my money on Kazoo. Yes he looked gassed but when you need a guy to drag your horse kicking and screaming through a final furlong he wants no part of, you can do a lot worse than Migliore for my money. After we got run over I figured, why try to fight city hall, obviously there\'s no stopping Nicky at this point. The worst part is I didn\'t even like the horse.

Went over to OTB yesterday, mostly just to have a few beers and to forget about a lousy week. After a few pints of Bass Ale I decide to make one play. Mott horse in GP 9th looks like a cinch, she\'s real short but I liked a couple of prices to run underneath. Keyed Mott over the #6 for a $20 exacta (got hammered late, went from $54 to $41 last couple of minutes) and $2 tri keying Mott over the 6 and a couple others. The Mott horse airs, my exacta horse is in the mix for 2nd but then fades...long story longer, I catch the tri, or so I think, until I look at my ticket and see I got one that has the 6 keyed on top. Either I called it out wrong or he punched it wrong, but I should have checked. Then they put up the unofficial order and they got the 4 in third, which makes me feel better...until they correct the mistake and take out the 4 and put up the 6. $334 tri, not life altering but a nice little bankroll churner for a guy like me.

Lawyer Ron didn\'t look all that rateable today, to me. He rated for part of one race, so I\'m figuring him part of the up-front crowd in the Derby, and it looks like that\'s going to be quite a crowd. LR, SNS, Barbaro, BD, SM, other I\'m probably forgetting. Thinking you want something from the back. A couple of those types that look OK at this point might be Point Determined and Sunriver. The Blue Grass results, and their effect on the graded earnings list, may force the latter into running in the Lexington next week. Pletcher didn\'t really sound like he wants to run him again, but it might be the best thing for him. But who knows. Since my moon appears to be in piss-on-the-seat mode in all facets of life at the moment, it\'s probably best to disregard my current Derby thoughts.

[davidrex]

my thoughts are with you this morning. wish I could fix things by saying just the right words...but we both know thats not possible
one thing I will say is ;if chuckles could put into words the same kind of feelings you invoked in your piece...maybe I would stop and read his utterings w/more frequency.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

davidrex Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> my thoughts are with you this morning. wish I
> could fix things by saying just the right
> words...but we both know thats not possible
> one thing I will say is ;if chuckles could put
> into words the same kind of feelings you invoked
> in your piece...maybe I would stop and read his
> utterings w/more frequency.

How? All my stories have happy endings. I was on Sun King.

[asfufh]

Article about the \"funny\" Meadowlands payoff.:
http://www.harnesslink.com/www/Article.cgi?ID=36702

[miff]

Chuck,

KE is now definite for the Derby and tell the truth you bet on Zito@Kee as opposed to Sun King.


Richiebee,

The semi-suck up by Stepenwolffer was his best effort to date.He didn\'t hang at all. The pace on that surface yesterday was very fast and S-WOLF made a pretty long sustained run from way back.

Jean Luc is the ultimate \"passenger\" and has been for a while. Pat Kelly is a real oldschool kinda loyal guy who obviously could ride someone better when he\'s got a shot.

Mike

[richiebee]

Miff:

   Pat\'s father TJ is one of the classiest people I\'ve ever met... I mean anywhere, not just on the racetrack.

   I guess if the Schiffs wanted a different rider, they would speak up.

[miff]

Rich,

If she gets where big sis Riskaverse is, they\'ll change.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> KE is now definite for the Derby and tell the
> truth you bet on Zito@Kee as opposed to Sun King.

Miff, I didn\'t have Little Cliff in my Bluegrass bet at all. But yes, I considered the Zito Factor as well as the fact that I\'ve always believed Sun King is suited for 7 and 8 poles. I just wish Spanish Chestnut had broke better.

>
>
> Richiebee,
>
> The semi-suck up by Stepenwolffer was his best
> effort to date.He didn\'t hang at all. The pace on
> that surface yesterday was very fast and S-WOLF
> made a pretty long sustained run from way back.

Depending upon what they do up front Derby Day, Steppenwolfer is one of those that has me looking over my shoulder. Theres a couple including Jazil, Sunriver and Point Determined. My guess is Like Now will pass on the Derby, but even without him you\'ve got:

Sinister Minister
Sharp Humor
Keyed Entry
First Samurai (apparently)
Bluegrass Cat (apparently)
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Barbaro
Sweetnorthernsaint (some say he will be right on it, though I have a different view.)

Then theres Wanna Runner. I think Baffert could send him. I believe that Winstar Derby or whatever he won was graded.

At this point I think Sinister Minister has the most speed and its gonna be a question of can someone run with him. Speculating, but Pletcher may run hard at him with Keyed Entry to try and find a way for Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver to rally. Its going to be tremendously intriguing figuring out the tactics. But we really can\'t get a grasp upon them until the field is set.

Right now, the biggest current event to my mind is \"How fast did Sinister Minister run?\". If you believe any of the three favorits paired behind him then he just ran a Bellamy Road Wood number or better. If you think the favorites all faltered then its not as fast, but its obviously still a big big race. If Storm Treasure equaled his top of 4 with adding weight, that puts Sinister in the Neg. 2 to 3 range per my reckoning and potentially the fastest horse going into the Derby.

I\'m speculating of course. I wonder what Parcell Beyer is gonna make of it. Anyone have an opinion on that?


>
> Jean Luc is the ultimate \"passenger\" and has been
> for a while. Pat Kelly is a real oldschool kinda
> loyal guy who obviously could ride someone better
> when he\'s got a shot.
>
> Mike

[big18741]

Sinister Minister 116 beyer

Lawyer Ron 98

[miff]

Chuck,

I agree with your speed list except for Barbaro.One other note on your plodder comment.There is data I glance at that shows internals(measures acceleration). Barbero is not a plodder at all, but his explosiveness is much better on grass so far.I watched him train in So Florida and he has a little high action up front but Matz has done everything right, so far.My concern is the 5 weeks because with all the potential early speed, I wouldn\'t want a horse too fresh and chasing early.

Also remember that it is human nature to be impressed by the LAST thing you saw when forming an opinion.Several weeks ago, Barbaro was the rage, last week it was Brother Derek and yesterday Lawyer Ron.Sinister Minister will get a big fig  but his dead send running style is not Derby-like,imo.

I think this will be one of the best betting derbies ever, especially if they all run.I hope Discreet Cat will show up too, assuming the arabs can afford the price of gasoline/fuel to transport him.

[miff]

If the Beyers are right and Jerry agrees, the TG fig is app neg.4ish for Sinister Minister.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> I agree with your speed list except for
> Barbaro.One other note on your plodder
> comment.There is data I glance at that shows
> internals(measures acceleration). Barbero is not a
> plodder at all, but his explosiveness is much
> better on grass so far.I watched him train in So
> Florida and he has a little high action up front
> but Matz has done everything right, so far.My
> concern is the 5 weeks because with all the
> potential early speed, I wouldn\'t want a horse too
> fresh and chasing early.
>
> Also remember that it is human nature to be
> impressed by the LAST thing you saw when forming
> an opinion.Several weeks ago, Barbaro was the
> rage, last week it was Brother Derek and yesterday
> Lawyer Ron.Sinister Minister will get a big fig
> but his dead send running style is not
> Derby-like,imo.
>
> I think this will be one of the best betting
> derbies ever, especially if they all run.I hope
> Discreet Cat will show up too, assuming the arabs
> can afford the price of gasoline/fuel to transport
> him.

Just to clarify, the point was not that Barbaro is a plodder. He is very forwardly placed. He has a high cruise speed, like they said of Bellamy Road, but he has not shown the late race energy you like to see heading into the Derby. The point being the 13 hole with five speed horses inside of him would be a scenario i would not want to see if I was holding a ticket upon Barbaro.