Florida Derby

[jimbo66]

Time for the \"serious\" Derby preps to start.

Looks like the Florida Derby is going to be an excellent betting race.  A full field, and a heavy favorite, 3rd or 4th fastest, breaking from an outside post with a short run into the first turn.  Undefeated, but 3 turf races and one sloppy track win.  

The contenders, in my order of preference.

Sunriver - Have to worry about the bounce, after the big fig last time, getting down to a \"2\".  But you get Pletcher, Velasquez, the fastest horse in the race, a  decent post position and tactical speed.  All this, plus better than 5-1 is likely.  8\\7-8 points of development since his two year old top means he may not run much faster in the near term, but a repeat of the \"2\" with a decent trip, might be enough to win.

Flashy Bull - Not sure the price on this horse will be as good as Sunriver, but he draws well and has speed.  Should get a nice trip.  Got down to a 2.75 last time, which is only 3+ points of development from his 2 year old top.  Could move forward again and if he does move up a couple points, he could be one to consider in the Derby in 5 weeks, assuming the connections don\'t try to squeeze one more prep into him.

Saint Augustus - Normally, I would try to beat a horse like this, who earned a big figure in a 4 horse race, against no competition.  But I think this one might be worth looking at.  He also has tactical speed and is trained by pletcher, both positives.  Will also be a price, which is good.  And finally, the \"3\" got him back to his 2 year old top.  He could have another forward move.  Of course the \"other side of that coin\" is that he bounced badly last time he ran the \"3\".  definitely an exotics use for me, but probably not my key horse.

Rehoboth ran his \"3\" with a trouble line, so he is usable at a price, but I don\'t like the trainer much.   Can\'t blame anybody for using Sharp Humor off the big number sprinting in the Hutcheson, but I have seen the horse run a few times and he doesn\'t look like a two turn horse to me.  depending on price, will probably use in the 2nd or 3rd slot though.

To me, the value is in hoping Barbican goes off around even money and betting against him.  Probably will key Sunriver, with the other horses above.

Good luck.

Jim

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jimbo,

Good analysis!! Were you using TG Figs only here to assess who\'s fastest? I\'ve seen other sites that have Barbaro Fastest on Beyers. I have not printed anything yet so I don\'t know. Was just curious.

Thanks !!!

NC Tony

[jimbo66]

yes, I was basing my analysis off the Tgraph figs.  Beyer has barbaro faster, which in theory, makes this a good betting race for t-graph users.  If it doesn\'t work out, we blame Jerry.......

[Uncle Buck]

Sun River ran his arse off in that \"2\" figure allowance. Velasquez was pumped up after the race too, pounded on SR\'s neck as if to say \"gosh kid...you ran your eyeballs out.\"

As I remember he raced another horse hard to the 1/4 pole then held off another nearing the wire. It was a very impressive effort...

That said...I think he bleeds out and runs an \"X\"

[shanahan]

for me, I\'m still sticking with Flashy Bull to put it together.  for all the aforementioned reasons, watching his races, he sticks out to me as getting better each out.

[big18741]

In January prior to the Holy Bull- Mclaughlin said he would use the three Fla races as preps for Flashy Bull even though the purses were tempting,and that the five weeks in between now and Churchill wouldn\'t be a problem.Felt that a lot of horses will have run their best races before the Derby.

I think he\'d be happy with a small forward move from the 2.75 and then shoot for something in the area of a TG 0 which puts him in the ballpark to take down the Derby if things fell right.

He lost ground in each of his last three races while stalking from outside posts.He won\'t have that problem Saturday,but he\'ll likely have to wait for running room in behind horses since Sharp Humor figures to clear off in front of him.Might be a bit of an education for him,and I\'ve seen days at Gulfstream where the rail isn\'t the best place to be.

Don\'t know what to do with SunRiver.He needs earnings-its a million dollar pot-and its Pletcher.I bet on Pletcher he bounces.I bet against and he\'ll run the 0 then be nowhere at Churchill.I think I\'ll watch with an eye on betting Flashy Bull at a nice fat price on Derby Day.

I can\'t conceive of Frank Gomez winning a million dollar race and I won\'t bet Barbaro.

[marcus]

I\'m taking Doc Cheney - he could easily move forward 2 to 3 pts at this juncture , w/ starting gate right before the club house turn ,  if he can get to the inside early and be rated just off the pace setters DC could pick up at least another point in ground in relation to others . Alot of people don\'t like this type of pattern in this situation , but he figures to improve on saturday though I am looking for a BIG Price  . Rehobith is heavily raced and is another one who could improve off a pair and last was  buried  . I\'m thinking The FLA Derby is not an open and shut case at all , Flashy Bull looks like the real thing in here but there seem\'s to be alot of horses with fragile lines who are off tops ...  

[Michael D.]

hey Jim ....

not the best fla derby field i\'ve seen ......  i looked and looked for a decent longshot to beat the favorites, but found none. sunriver looks good. connections, nice post, top fig, decent timing, and odds should be ok. if i bet it, i guess he\'s the one. good luck.

[jimbo66]

Hi Michael,

Agreed that this isn\'t the best Fla Derby field.  About this time last year, you were holding a fistfull of futures tickets for the Derby on Noble Causeway.  Who is it this year?  

It is still early, but it is tough to find a derby horse that I like.  Plenty to bet against, but none to bet on.  Discreet Cat is 5-1 co-favorite in British books.  Bet against.  I don\'t like Brother Derek.  His preps remind me of Point Given, no competition, not challenged.  You don\'t beat 19 on the first saturday in May without learning how to fight.  Lawyer Ron has nice figures, distance pedigree seems shabby, but do distance pedigrees matter any more in the Derby?  I want to see SweetSouthernSain\'t figure in the Gotham, but he might be interesting as a longshot.  Bluegrass Cat and Barbaro are over-rated, at least based on their figures.  

Wide open.  As usual...  Although I have to admit that last year\'s Wood had me thinking that bellamy road was the real thing.  This year I won\'t bite  No favorites in the Derby!