Free Sheets to the Wind

[richiebee]

RICH:
 Great offer from TG in April, but I haven\'t bet Laurel in about 15 years. Not the General Fritchie or the Barbara George. Free sheets are great, but will easily resist the temptation to bet at a facility located on the future home of a real estate development.

 I turn my attention to the race of the week no one really cares about, the Excelsior Breeders race at Park Ozone. The race attracts my attention because NYRA media star Funny Cide will be an overbet and hopefully beaten favorite.

From the rail:

LIQUOR CABINET has run a good winter campaign, with his last 3 races all coming back TG 2. I think he would need to move forward to win, but I think that his improvement and new consistency may have been a product of cold weather and the inner dirt, and look for some regression crossing to the main. Interesting that LC was able to defeat the ill fated Manchurian carrying five pounds more than that rival, but couldn\'t go by him in their next race when he carried only 1 pound more than Manchurian.

COLITA has equalled his career best (0) in two of three races since undergoing surgery for an entrapped epiglottis. 0/3 over the AQ main, but posted a 0 here as a 4YO. Pletcher barn has been impressive this winter, winning at a 30+% clip on the Inner Track and nearly at a 30% clip at the Gulf. More than 50% of Pletcher\'s Inner Dirt runners were in the exacta.

WATCHMON am still waiting to bet him in his turf debut. Trust your Uncle Richie on this one.

FUNNY CIDE as a 4Y0 put together an amazing TG campaign, posting a negative TG in 8 of his 10 starts; he won 3 of 10 of those races. He has yet to win in 6 races as a 5 and 6 year old. He will be talked about as the main pace in the race even though he has not had a clear lead in any of his starts since the Belmont Stakes 3 years ago. I have always contended that Barclay Tagg has done a poor job of getting FC to relax both in AM works and in his races; FC simply seems to overpower exercise riders and jockeys. This horse has thrown 2 good races in over the AQ main, winning this race in 04 (TG neg 0.2), and finishing a
very close second to Empire Maker in the Wood (TG 1.2), but he is winless in 17 months, will be 8/5, and as my friend Charlie once said \"I don\'t schlep to work 5 days a week to bet a favorite on Saturday.\"

WEST VIRGINIA peaked in the summer of his 4Y0 year pairing negative 0.2s. WV has won 2 0f 4 at the AQ main, but his best TG over the course (2.3) would not be fast enough to win. 9 marks is his favorite distance, but he is 1/9 in 05-06 and may be overbet due to the presence of Brass Hat in his last two running lines.

GO NOW has not been a factor in his graded stake tries.

EVENING ATTIRE has broken extremely poorly in his last 3 starts, costing him any chance to win on the inner. When an older horse develops a gate problem such as this I believe it is a problem beyond equipment changes and extra morning gate work; the old bastard may be saying \"enough already\". Fascinating that according to TG, Pat Kelly\'s overall win percentage over his last 1286 starts is 8%; in 144 stakes races during that period he has won at a 14% clip.

YOUR BLUFFING from Sweetnorthernsaint\'s trainer, is the fastest horse in the race, posting negative TGs in his last four races, all at Laurel. Hasn\'t shown early speed in any race, so will be curious to see what Dominquez can do with him into the first turn from post 8. Trainer Trombetta has very favorable stats: 26% strike rate in last 90 days, 24% strike rate in Stakes, and a 42% strike rate with Dominguez (71 starts). Carries 115 tomorrow after carrying 125, 122, 120 and 124 in his last 4 starts. At 4/1 ML looks to be the one to bet off the TGs, but the biggest question will be positioning into the first turn. Have to kind of wish Trombetta brought up a Maryland rider for chance at higher odds; this one could end up second favorite.

INFINITE GLORY not as fast, not as classy and way outside.

OVERVIEW: Look to beat the overhyped Funny Cide. Your Bluffing, the new face from Laurel, is fastest horse for a hot trainer and could be 4/1. Colita (3/1)has run a good one over this track and gets a good post. Would want odds of 8/1 or above on the NY bred West Virginia off his 1/9 slate in the last two years.