Bluegrass Stakes + 1st Saturday in May

[jimbo66]

This Saturday\'s Bluegrass Stakes could be an interesting race, despite the obvious speed bias that seems to be present, as usual, at Keenland.

Bluegrass Cat looks like the most likely winner to me.  He got down to a \"1\" last time, supposedly throwing a shoe on the turn.  The \"1\" makes him co-second fastest, tied with Strong Contender and slower than First Samurai\'s best race.  

First Samurai is certainly fast enough to win, but you can\'t like his 6 point backward move last time and expecting to return to near his best off that race is hard to take, especially at 8-5 morning line.

Strong Contender is lightly raced, got down to a \"1\" last time in only his second start, so he could be \"any kind\".  However, I don\'t like the circumstances under which he earned the \"1\", alone on the lead, loping to a 23.4 first quarter mile figure, going a mile at Gulfstream.  I know a \"figure is a figure is a figure\", but not for me.  

Bluegrass Cat has only improved 2 points off his 2 year old top and will be 3rd off the layoff, with a nice inside post to ensure stalking position.  With only that 2 point improvement from his 2 year old top, this horse could go faster.  He is already marginally fast enough to compete the 1st Saturday in May, but if he makes a forward move, which I think is coming, he could be \"one of the ones\" in 3 weeks.

At a little better than 21-1 at one offshore sports book, I will take a shot at Bleugrass Cat in the Derby futures as well.

Good luck,

Jim

[Michael D.]

Jim,


re bluegrass cat - instead of \"bluegrass stakes + 1st saturday in may\", i see this as \"bluegrass stakes OR 1st saturday in May\". remember last year when pletcher brought in bandini fully cranked? remember the derby?

i don\'t bet many of these kee dirt races. i can never figure out which of the speedballs is about to explode. if i had to bet this one, i guess i would side with BC. his style fits the track, and he is pretty fast. also draws nice here, with stalker/closer types on either side. if he does happen to explode though, i\'m not sure i want to be keying on him three weeks from now.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

Good point.  I bought into the Bandini race last and the negative 4, thinking he that as a \"pletcher horse\", he could run back in 3 weeks and not bounce.

I think there is a difference between the two though and it is the 2 year old  foundation and figures this year.  Bluegrass Cat had a \"3\" last year and has already ran down to a \"1\" this year, which is steady improvement.  If he moves forward very much tomorrow (say 3 points or more), then I would not be happy with my futures bet.  But he only moves forward a point or two, he is not as likely to bounce and still could have a small forward move.

Bandini had almost no 2 year old foundation, if I remember, then Jerry gave him slow figures before the Bluegrass stakes (although Beyer had him faster, as did Rags, if I remember right).  Then Bandini had something like a 6 point forward move in the Bluegrass STakes.

In looking closer at the race tomorrow, I guess it won\'t be such a good betting race.  Even though you have a 9 horse field, too many throwouts.  We could see First Samurai at even money,  Bluegrass Cat 2-1 and Strong Hero 3-1.  The price horse that could be interesting is the Baffert horse, ridden by Gomez.  Keenland has been awful with the speed bias this week already and I would bet dollars to donuts that the Baffert horse sets the fractions.  he won\'t get \"loose\" since the three top contenders all have some speed as well, but Gomez/Baffert will be cuttting out the fractions, and the way that track has played this week, that is the place to be.

Jim