A Untestd Theory:Breakthru or Bunk?

[Mall]

Some recent & interesting non-weight related posts(i.e.,Marc Kramer,Derby1592,etc) got me to thinking about an untestable theory which I\'ve never seen mentioned & which I\'ve had somewhere in the back of my mind for a no. of yrs.

At varying degrees of frequency & length, it seems players sometimes experience an \"awareness\" mode of heightened alertness where patterns, betting strategy, & everything else seems crystal clear for even the most complicated & demanding of handicaping challenges. Whatever one does is uncannily right, even if it can\'t always be adequately explained, so that at times a race almost seems like a replay when it actually takes place & one almost dares to wonder about the entirely justified view that this is the most difficult of games. It seems that this state occurs more often when one is returning to the track after a hiatus or has recently made or is testing a major change in approach.

The timing may not be merely coincidence because these are also the times when one\'s mind is best able to avoid the the self-judgment & various thoughts stemming from doubt or fear of failure that seem to me to plague all horseplayers at times, again at various levels & frequency.

If there is anything to this theory, then the awareness state in question may be likened to the \"zone\" basketball players & golfers talk about, & might therefore be a state that one could take concrete steps to try to achieve. As I understand it, in sports this is done by performing drills to learn the art of \"relaxed concentration\", defined as focusing one\'s complete & undivided attention in a way that is very different than the \"trying to concentrate\" mode of a student studying to take a final exam.

It\'s said that one key is to work on being in a nonjudgmental \"here & now\", away from the interference of past errors, away also from the should & shouldn\'t have beens & the what might have beens. Another key is to deepen your interest & absorption to the pt where you literally lose yourself in what you are doing, free from overconcerns about results.

To a limited extent,I have tried to incorporate these concepts in my handicapping, but the reaction of my dopester posse to these ideas is decidedly mixed. What say ye, members of the Ask the Experts Bd.?

[nunzio]

Mall,

You are dead on.  When I have a clear
head, adequate time, and a good attitude,
the answers to all the questions ( or
at least most) become as clear as they can be.  Unfortunately, those 3 criteria are rarely met on a consistent basis.  One constant in all of this is to go to the races
solo.  Too many distractions lead to
incomplete analysis and missed opportunites.

If you ever find a way to press a button and get into the zone at will, I\'ll buy two !

Nunzio

[Phil Mandl]

Began as a thesis by Richard Bandler and John Grinder in the early 70\'s.  Who since then has created models for people to learn from the successes of people like hypnotherapist Milton Erickson and family therapist Virginia Satir to name just two.  What is NLP?  My definition is: the study of the structure of models of behaviour that work.  The \"how\" a specific behaviour is useful in a situation instead of the \"why\".  
Mall, you begin to identify some of the structure of your experience of what you and others see, hear and then feel on the days when we are in the zone at the track. And Nunzio expands this based on his experiences and to me adds useful advice about going to the track solo to help eliminate distractions. Some of my most sucessful days have included similar situations you both mention.  My days of being \"in the zone\" includes being at the paddock still needing to narrow the field down to one or two horses because I\'m generally a win bettor with an occasional exacta wager.  And based on how I see and sometimes hear the horses behaving in the paddock and during the post parade my focus and confidence in my handicapping increases.  I won\'t right now share any details of what I look for in the paddock and post parade unless someone expresses an interest in wanting to know more.  I believe pre-race analysis of horses behaviour is one of the few frontiers still to be modeled and shared in this game so others can use this as another handicapping tool. I\'m sure there are others on the BB that can add more to this discussion by detailing what they have experienced.  Lets hear from you.
Phil Mandl

[HP]

I read that book by Bonnie Ledbetter \"Body Language of Horses\" (I think that\'s the title). It was very interesting and I have had no success with it. HP

[nunzio]

Phil,

I absolutely would like to hear your thoughts on paddock & post parade analysis.  Lets face
it, if you don\'t feel good on a particlular
day, and it shows, its unreasonable for
anyone to expect you to perform at your best.
Horses are no different.  The obvious negative signs of sweating & being unruly
with the handlers but there are others.  
A dull coat, listless walking with their head down are more subtle.  Scared horses (when you can see the whites of their eyes) are
vulnerable as well.  The biggest positive sign I continually see is a horse that
breaks off from the post parade with its
neck bowed so its chin is about touching its chest and when he gets into stride he gradually raises his head & extentends his
front legs effortlessly.  When horses
break off from a walk to a jog following the post parade, I like to see a horse walk as
long as possible before beginning to jog
and try to note any \"herky-jerky\" movements when they make the transisition.  If its not smooth, there is a good chance they are sore.


Nunzio

[MO]

Agree that going to the track solo is best idea for eliminating distractions. Your advice on paddock inspection is critical to ones success. I\'ll bet you have Joe Takish\'s video and Trillis Parker\'s book \"Horses Talk, It pays to listen\". Very informative stuff.
What can you offer on paddock inspection for simulcast players? Thanks.

Mark

[Mall]

Very interesting & informative posts all.

(1)Nunzio: I am of 2 minds re your suggestion to go solo. I\'ve had some documented success that way. On the other hand, if your\'re part of the right group, you can learn from each other, such as the time someone stopped me from betting on a horse which was probably lame. However,a major problem arises when it comes  to the complicated task of \"culling\" a member for any no. of reasons, including lack of skill. Four of my posse spent the last BC with the gang who hit the $3 mill BC pk6 at GP, & I was mightly impressed with the way they worked together. Also noteworthy is the incredible sucess of the teams in Hong Kong reported in the Mar. issue of Wired, which I\'m told will be available online 3/12.

(2)Derby1592: It\'s apparent you have considered & know a great deal re this issue & I\'m wondering if bet size & other factors play a role. I\'ve always subscribed to the theory that everyone has a \"comfort level\" for prime plays, which may be consistent with the idea that to a certain extent success may be inversely related to concern over outcomes. Perhaps another relevant example this time of yr. is if you have a large no. of novice friends who will be anxiously awaiting your Derby pick & you know that the only thing they will understand is whether or not they had a winner.

(3)Phil Mandl: Like HP, I\'ve read the Ledbetter book. I\'ve also viewed the tape & read Tkach\'s(sp) stuff, although I\'ve not signed up for his \"day at the races\" plan. Still, with one notable exception, I still don\'t get it. The exception is in a way related to the interesting article in the most recent Blood-Horse re whether on some level great horses \"know\" they are special. The charisma or whatever you call that I saw in Victory Ride before her mdn race was quite literally breathtaking, & this is coming from a guy whose skill level in this area is close to zero. I am absolutely convinced she wld have won the BC & 3 yr old filly honors if she wasn\'t injured. More to the pt,I for one am very interested in learning what you have to say about observing horses in the paddock.

[charlie]

i read this article in wired last weekend. outside of the massive handle and numerous attempts to devise computer driven models, the thing that was most startling was the \"130 factors\" which were arbitrarily relied upon to construct a morning line. moreover, the happy valley race course only has supposedly 1,200 horses stabled in the area. does anybody know why the hong kong jockey club won\'t have more dates, either there or in sha tin?

[Phil Mandl]

I read and still have both books mentioned The Body Language of Horses by Bonnie Ledbetter and Horses Talk It Pays to Listen by Parker. I still pull them out to read over again both are good introductory books on this subject. They are what got me started on using pre-race inspection as one part of my overall handicapping.  In addition to my uncle \"breaking me in\" when he was working as a groom for Rokeby and Greentree in the late 70\'s and early 80\'s.  
I Haven\'t heard of the seminar or tape by Tkach so if anyone has more info where I can get these please let me know.
Here are some (not all) general guidelines of what I look for in the Paddock.
Some Positives and contrasting negative body language:
-A dappled coat, which I\'ll describe as an exagerated positive indicator of a horses overall physical and mental health better than just a shiny coat.  I describe it as looking like rings ratiating from within a horses skin along with a gleeming coat.
-Deliberate firm steps when walking or prancing,  I want to see a horse firmly place each hoof down on the ground placing weight on all fours.  You can often hear these deliberate firm steps as they walk or prance.  To me this says the horse is sound. By contrast many horses especially when prancing appear to hardly be placing their body weight onto their feet as they move that\'s not to say horses that move softly are unsound as each horse is an individual.
-When a horse is standing still I want to see good erect confirmation, straight legs with toes pointed forward instead of turned slightly in or out.  I love to see a horse stomping the ground a few times during saddling or when in the stall. They will usually do this with the front feet and to me this is the horse saying \"lets get on with it\".
-Another \"lets get on with it\" sign is when I see a horse nudging/pushing the groom in the paddock with their head.  It looks like the horse is pushing on the groom to get going.  The same behaviour I also like to see during the post parade the horse nudging, pushing along the lead pony saying I want to race today.  By contrast you can sometimes see horses almost hiding beside the groom or trying to drape his neck over a lead pony for comfort or reassurance.
-The typical bowed neck with alert ears and eyes.  I\'ve seen many horses that do not bow their necks win many many races again they are individuals however a bowed neck goes along with the nudging and pushing foward of the groom and lead pony.  I want to see an alert horse with ears straight up paying attention to the goings on with ears turning to hear the sounds of people and other horses.
-A demonstration of dominance over the other horses when walking past each other in the paddock.  Horses are pack animals with a definate hierarchy.  Two Horses walking past each other one with neck bowed looking forward with intense eyes and ears erect another almost shying away with the head dropping looking at but not looking directly at the other horse.  Which would you want to have money on?
Some negatives:
-A horse barely lifting the feet or shuffling or sliding the feet when walking.  If a horse moves like that in the paddock how well will they move on the track?
-A horse whinning.  Many young horse will do this in the paddock.  To me this says \"I don\'t want to be here I want to go back to my barn, I want my mommy\". This is often accompanied with other eratic behaviour like rearing up or signs of fear like seeing the whites of the eyes. The horse is scared and they do demonstrate it.  This kind of a horse can settle down and run well the key is if the erratic behaviour continues to the post.
There\'s lots more to this topic and I can go on but I have to do some work now.

I will say that there is a caveat I have to face up to and that\'s because I grew up in Queens going to the races at Belmont and Aqueduct and now live in Saratoga county wagering mostly on the NY circuit.  Many classy horses at the top tracks will demonstrate many positive signs especially in the graded stakes races, so you often can\'t eliminate many of the horses based on body language. At the lesser tracks I believe paddock and post parade inspection can be very useful and a powerful tool.  I really have got to get over to the Finger Lakes more often
Phil Mandl

[Mall]

His articles used to be on handicapping.com, which no longer exists and/or has been taken over by, get this, gambleinparadise.com, where you click on Article Archives, pick Takach as the author, & you will find 10 articles on physicality, as well many other articles, from someone who appears to be more prolific than even the undersigned!

[Mall]

I don\'t know the ans to your specific Q, but have to disagree that the 130 factors are being used arbitrarily, assuming the article is correct that some of these groups are able to overcome a 19% take, pay individual programmers upwards of $1 mill, & still net $50 mill. The $50k starting salary for making bets didn\'t sound all that bad either.

One thing which has been called into question since the article is the claim the HK racing is \"scrupulously honest.\" A few days after the issue hit the stands 2 top HK jocks & some illegal bookmakers were suspended for alleged race-fixing,not entirely unsurprising given the massive sums involved.

[DrewJ]

You can read every article he has written at itsdata.com under free articles it is updated weekly...