She's a, boom, boom, Twentieth century fox

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

Are patterns from the twentieth century still viable and valid today? Any opinions?

Should we now embrace the horse with 7, 8, 9, 10pt top or development from a 2yo number? Or do we say no, look somewhere else. Is the 0-2-X dead? Is it now 0-0-X, 0-0-2-X or 0-0-0-X? Do we ignore 2yo figs after a long layoff and treat the 3yo as a new horse? Should we now forget the patterns and play the horse with the best fig within \"X\" amount of days? Questions, questions, questions.

[HP]

I think they are, but there are certain trainers you have to make some allowances for and give them a little extra credit regarding bounce, etc. If this year\'s Belmont is useful for anything, maybe it starts to show where the boundaries are. It looks to me like most people bet WE and PrCit like they could just keep going, and maybe that\'s unreasonable (especially when those horses are short prices). HP

[HP]

A follow-up point. I was wondering if it\'s a coincidence (in the last six or seven Triple Crowns) that Baffert starts strong in Kentucky (the most liberal medication state), maintains it through the Preakness (Maryland\'s racing establishment is falling apart and it\'s only two weeks later) and then poops out in the Belmont (longer distance, three weeks later and New York has traditionally been one of the strictest medication-regulating states). This cycle of Baffert\'s hot 3yos has happened several times, and while I believe he is a top horseman, the pattern is, let\'s say, interesting.

Lukas\' horses tend to boom up in Kentucky out of nowhere, so they\'ve been around in the Belmont a little more in recent years.

While I would not attribute their success to medication exclusively, this is an obvious possibility, and the year-in year-out manifestation is making it harder for me to see it as a coincidence. HP

[HP]

Follow up on this one. Of course, the Triple Crown is set up to make them poop out in the Belmont regardless. If you think about the \'front end\', in Kentucky Baffert\'s horses have figures ahead of time, but Lukas has come out of the clouds more than once, and the performance of his horses in Kentucky this year were ridiculously out of line with what they were doing elsewhere. I wouldn\'t say medication is the decisive factor, but after seeing this for the past few years I\'m becoming more convinced that something\'s going on. HP

[tonyk]

Guys are looking for an edge anywhere they can get it .They have chemists working overtime to give them that edge.If you look at the sheets you can figure out who the juice guys are .I try to avoid certian races with certain trainers because of this .Lucas had a tremendous Saratoga meet last year was it because he had an edge ?, who knows where they\'ll strike next ?The next \"Shifty Sheik\" could be lurking behind any barn door.

[HP]

I\'m leery of generalizing and throwing too many stones on this, since you can talk yourself out of perfectly good bets this way. In NY, I throw out Dutrow\'s horses when it looks like they should be thrown out, and they usually get overbet and plenty of times it works out.

It\'s just a little strange that the same thing seems to be happening in the Triple Crown races almost every year now. Baffert, one two and out. Lukas, horse from nowhere, keeps going. It\'s one thing to pull this in Delaware (Lake), but with everybody\'s eyes on a race it\'s a different story. HP

[tonyk]

Funny ,Lake and Dutrow were exactly the two guys I had in mind.

[HP]

For awhile it looked like Serey. LaBoccetta seemed to be getting in on it. As far back as I can remember you can see them. Whatever happened to Peter Ferriola? As far as I can see, sometimes it creates betting opportunities, and I choose to focus on this rather than railing about stuff I can\'t do anything about. Again, in Triple Crown races things have looked a little strange for awhile, and that\'s a lot different than $20k claimers when school is in session and they\'re running on the inner dirt. HP

[tonyk]

Conversely when these guys get \"pinched \" (such as Serey ,Ferriola ,and if I\'m not mistaken one of the Klesaris\' )they are a complete toss .I notice S.Klesaris is still winning down in Delaware.I still recommend proceeding with caution with these guys ,although you make a solid point about taking shots at these races due to the gross underlay