Chaos

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The mighty Bluegrass Cat goes down to the improving horse that finished second to him in the prior race. Johnny V. \"opts\" for Florida, when you have to suspect he wins if he stays in New York.

Bob and John goes down to defeat at even money, albeit in a tougher race. Then theres Brother Derek.

They take turns beating First Samurai and then those that beat him are defeated in their next.

Then theres Lawyer Ron. You had to like that pace alteration in the last but has he faced much? Or maybe look at it another way, \"Is there much out there yet?\"

Early Top Ten

Sweetnorthernsaint
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron

you can fill in the rest

[richiebee]

Chuckles:

  Good to see you are up early trying to sort out the Derby.

  What to make of Ache-illes of Troy? Reported on this board that trainer Paragallo said he grabbed a quarter. Fountaine in the New York Post says that the state vet saw no visible injury. Jockey Dominquez,in DRF, says that Acheilles was sore in his right foreleg.

  Chuckles, get back to work. You need to do better than identify the probable favorites for the Wood, SA Derby and Ark Derby. Where is the intrigue?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles:
>
>   Good to see you are up early trying to sort out
> the Derby.

Hell yes I was up early. I had to sneak into the Red Board Room to try and figure out what happened yesterday before TGraph closed access for the day. After a big T.C. prep day its like a kid waking on Christmas and I can\'t sleep. The difference is this Santa takes all the presents home if you\'re not up soon enough.

Also, Santa only lets you open 3 presents, but luckily the Gotham was a ROTW gift so we\'re good on the days 4 big races from different tracks.

>
>   What to make of Ache-illes of Troy? Reported on
> this board that trainer Paragallo said he grabbed
> a quarter. Fountaine in the New York Post says
> that the state vet saw no visible injury. Jockey
> Dominquez,in DRF, says that Acheilles was sore in
> his right foreleg.

Agree theres been conflicting info on that. I don\'t know what to make of it. I lost my bets on that race, but I was NOT enamored with a trainer change. Maybe Pederson snuck in and sabotaged Achilles.

>
>   Chuckles, get back to work. You need to do
> better than identify the probable favorites for
> the Wood, SA Derby and Ark Derby. Where is the
> intrigue?

Heck, they\'ll make Pletcher the Wood favorite. He\'s gonna run Bluegrass and Keyman there.

Brother Derek deserves to be the S.A. Derby Favorite, but I may bet Bob and John or Point Determined. Not sure yet.

Lawyer Ron will hammer the Ark unless some new blood arrives and he may hammer whoever arrives. Don\'t think I\'ll buck him.

[JEB]

Do not forget Corinthian. I think that he is heading to the Wood and will take a fair amount of money, also

John

[bobphilo]

Had to be impressed with Lawyer Ron\'s Rebel win. People started giving up on him when his Southwest figure was lower but that was due to him being sent hard early there. He showed he can rate beautifully in the Rebel and that very wide move where he blew away the field on the turn and still had enough to win going away by 3 instead of tiring and actually otkicked the good closer Steppenwolfer was a damn good race. This guy was my Derby pick early and my main concern was whether he could rate and come from off the pace, which he\'ll need to do in the Derby and he passed that test with flying colors.
I agree with your top 3 Derby picks except I\'d put LR on top with Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint as next 2. I think the main question now has switched from whether LR has the ability, to will he hold his form after 3 hard races and more to come.

Bob

[Uncle Buck]

Chuckles. Get off my SNS bandwagon dude! No room for smart guys on this bandwagon! Only dead money like me...:-)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles. Get off my SNS bandwagon dude! No room
> for smart guys on this bandwagon! Only dead money
> like me...:-)

lol

I liked him since you pointed him out back in January. I think he wins yesterday if they go 9 marks and that was with a significant tactical disadvantage. He\'s the wiseguy horse NOW. He was only 4-1 yesterday. Like Now was all out and bearing across at the end. Keyed Entry was at his distance limit in my opinion. Keyman could steal off on the front end if the Wood if they let him, but your horse was a very good early call and I hope you catch that future. Right now, I like him best. Lawyer Ron would move up if he faced anyone, but all we have are figs to judge him on. Good figs are the top tool, but running against good company horses with good figs gives you a smaller margin of error.

Looks like Red Raymond stepped up to the plate in this race too. With a clean trip and equal weights maybe he can pounce on Lawyer Ron.

[big18741]

Was there any reason at all for Mckee to keep banging away on Lawyer Ron in the stretch yesterday?No there wasn\'t.I think the whole deal for Holthus is to win these Oaklawn races and worry about the Derby later.

Nice change in tactics yesterday for LR due to the rail being bad and Holthus wanting Mckee to get off the inside and into the 3 or 4 path where it was best.That versatility is useful in a race like the derby,but only if LR isn\'t cooked by May and I\'m guessing he will be.

[Michael D.]

lawyer ron just inhaled a field around the turn at OP under a hand ride, then gets whipped hard in the final 1/16 and the jock gets ridiculed. sound familiar?

a bit early to comapre this guy to AA, but he might have inherited the same large heart that the courageous one had. outstanding stamina sources on bottom for both.

[marcus]

 Lawyer Ron\'s bounce 2 races back should bode well for the soundness issue and his ability to be running new tops in Triple Crown races and BC  + I\'m guessing he didn\'t get back again all the way yesterday either but I don\'t necesarily see any negatives or signs of deterioration if that is the case .  

[basket777]

in the rebel did anyone see the horse that came in 4th?  look at that pattern. paired 6\'s i\'m sure a move forward  what next.   could be something over time

[NoCarolinaTony]

I Just watched the replay, he took 3 wraps upper stretch and 3 more wraps in deep stretch. Not sure he needed the last three wraps. Maybe he began to loaf some.

Anyway he did look very good.


NC Tony