Strong Contender and Achilles

[richiebee]

Good DRF article by J. Privman discussing J Ward\'s decision to prep Strong Contender on the Polytrack surface in the Lane\'s End. Ward leaves open the possibility of \"needing to run another race\" (ie needing graded earnings if SC is not first or second in Lanes End) before the Derby. This would probably be the Lexington Stakes (run 1 week after the Bluegrass and 2 weeks before the Derby) which has in the past served as a court of last resort for colts who are short of the necessary graded earnings to make the Derby.

IMO SC, who is in very good hands, will not be 100% cranked for the Lane\'s End. He has never been 2 turns and depending on the quality of the competition could be a vulnerable favorite Saturday in a race that I will not be betting.

If SC wins the Lane\'s End, I guess it is possible that Ward could send him directly to Churchill, and as Privman notes, handicappers will be faced with the first Derby contender to have last raced over Polytrack.

Privman also says Achilles is headed to Hot Springs for the Arkansas Derby. The saga continues. Achilles 3 lifetime wins have come over the Inner Dirt and he must now prove he is capable on other surfaces (see last years private purchase by Baffert, Sort it Out, who showed lots of \"Inner Fortitude\" but not much ability on any other surface).

I do not know if graded earnings will be a factor this year because I do not know if more than 20 animals will look to be in the Derby. In any case both SC and Achilles are behind the 8 ball as far as graded earnings are concerned.