HAFTA ASK JERRY CAN'T ASK FRIEDMAN!

[high roller]

The Fountain of Youth (gr. II) was ugly in that you had the first-place finisher, Corinthian, lose his cool going to the gate and again in the gate, and then turn the stretch run into a roller derby jam. You had First Samurai losing the lead turning for home after setting tedious fractions of :48 1/5 and 1:12 1/5 over a fast, watered-down track. And you had five horses within 1 3/4 lengths of each other at the finish. The speed gurus no doubt will rip this race apart, especially considering the final time of 1:49 was four-fifths slower than an allowance race earlier on the card won by Sunriver. In fact, both the Fountain of Youth and the Swale Stakes (gr. II) were run slower than earlier allowance races, which could indicate that the track got slower and drier as the day went on.

[miff]

High,

I think that the slow early pace had more to do with the final time than the track slowing down.The last three eights were pretty fast.Have not heard from people who track surface changes pretty closely that there was a slowing surface at GP on 3/4.

Maybe TG will have it different.

[SoCalMan2]

I am curious about comparing fractions.  You cannot really compare First Samurai\'s fractions with any of the guys running one mile or less because they all ran a straight away and he ran his fractions into a turn.  You would expect times on a turn to be slower than on a straight away.  Also, I would think run ups could have a huge impact on fractions.  There were only two other races around the first turn that day and one of them was 1 3/16ths. Is there a way to see what the run ups were for the three two turn races to try to determine if comparing the fractions were meaningful?  I mean if FS ran his fractions from a standing start in the gate while the two others had a healthy run up, then his fractions could ahve been a helluva lot tougher than the other fractions.  Of course that is an extreme example, but we have really scant information to go on when we throw out the idea that his fractions were pedestrian when they might have actually been bruising.  Also, if the wind was different, I would think that could have a big impact.

[miff]

So Cal,

Not a bad point but the only fraction which would be impacted by a shorter run up is the first one.

[bobphilo]

Mike,

I think the slowish early fractions would have contributed to a faster final time rather than the other way around. They still finished slower than they began and if they\'d gone faster early, they would have finished even slower due to fatigue. I\'ve just done a pace analysis of the race and will post it to my Yahoo group today. It will go into more detail and you can see it there.

http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/Horses_and_Racing_Forum/
 
First Samurai got away with what seemed like an easy early lead and had he been in better form would have finished more strongly in much better time.
I think that BOTH the slow final time and slow fractions were caused by either a slow track or slow horses (or fast horses putting in a sub-par performance) - or a combination of both.

Bob
 

[bobphilo]

Mike,

Correction on the FOY pace analysis. I already posted it yesterday. It\'s on the group message board. It\'s the Santa Anita Hcp. analysis that I will post to the group today. I got the 2 cofused for a second.

Bob

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tend to think that First Samurai is this years \"Officer\". He was plenty fast at two and had a very fast Hutchenson, (Though perhaps not legitimately fast), but is showing definite longer race/two turn weakness.

Current belief is that he finishes beaten in the Bluegrass and doesnt make the Derby, A La Officer.

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike,
>
> I think the slowish early fractions would have
> contributed to a faster final time rather than the
> other way around. They still finished slower than
> they began and if they\'d gone faster early, they
> would have finished even slower due to fatigue.
> I\'ve just done a pace analysis of the race and
> will post it to my Yahoo group today. It will go
> into more detail and you can see it there.
>
>  
>  
> First Samurai got away with what seemed like an
> easy early lead and had he been in better form
> would have finished more strongly in much better
> time.
> I think that BOTH the slow final time and slow
> fractions were caused by either a slow track or
> slow horses (or fast horses putting in a sub-par
> performance) - or a combination of both.
>
> Bob
>

[miff]

Bob,

The winner got the last 3/8ths in 36 and 2/5ths.At a mile and an 1/8th for 3yr olds in early March,I do not consider that slow, but I understand your take on the slow pace overall.

Mike

[bobphilo]

Mike,

Agreed the last 3/8\'s were not bad. Sorry if I gave that impression. I just meant that they went slower late than early (they always do) due to fatigue, and if they\'d gone faster early, they would have gone slower late and probably a slower final time as well. There are extreme pace situations, sometimes seen in Europe, where they go the half in something like 50 and 3/4\'s in 1:15 and in those cases the slow pace does cause a slow final time because it\'s equinly impossible to finish fast enough for a good time. Almost never happens here.
Glad you got my point overall.

Bob

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob,
>
> The winner got the last 3/8ths in 36 and 2/5ths.At
> a mile and an 1/8th for 3yr olds in early March,I
> do not consider that slow, but I understand your
> take on the slow pace overall.
>
> Mike

[SoCalMan2]

Dear Miff,

JB and LF can answer better than me, but I think they both would agree that runups affect the final time. Just imagine a race where one horse could have a running start and the other had to start from a standstill......the horse with the running start would gain a huge advantage from the different starts.  The final time needs to be adjusted to reflect that -- and I think both LF and JB adjust final times so that varying runups over the course of the day are taken into account when they are making a variant and assigning figures. To me, that means that if runups affect the final time, they must affect the fractions.  I would agree that the first fraction is affected most and the later fractions less so, but I do think this information could be very relevant in assessing what type of fractions First Samurai ran.  On the other hand, to be honest, I think all of the discussion about what the fractions were or were not in that race are completely irrelevant to assessing the efforts of the contestants, so you can take what I write with a grain of salt.

Best,

SCM2

[miff]

So Cal,

I think we are saying the same thing.

Mike

[SoCalMan2]

Dear Mike,

My apologies, I got confused about who said what. You are correct, we do not have any argument here.  My comments were really targeted more at the original poster.

SCM2

[bobphilo]

SCM,

I think we all basically agree regarding the pace of the FOY. You made an excellent point in how one has to examine the pace of 1-turn and 2-turn races differently. Whenever I do a pace analysis comparing a 1-turn and 2-turn race, I make an adjustment for how running the first fraction into a turn affects the first split and carry it through the later fractions through the finish. If one is using pace pars, the difference between 1 and 2 turn race fractions will be reflected in the different pace pars for the 2 as well.

Bob