7th big a

[twoshoes]

In my opinion it looked worse on the pan than it did head on. The winner shifted in as he went by and tightened things up for Ramon momentarily. The Pletcher horse ran on after looking like a dead piece mid stretch. It\'s not clear it cost Ramon anything. It speaks volumes that Dominguez did not claim foul. Also,just because they didn\'t post an inquiry does not mean they didn\'t look at it. But I agree with those who have said that perhaps something so visually obvious on the pan merits the Stewards posting an inquiry, even if it\'s a short duration and perhaps without blinking numbers just to let the customers know it was reviewed.

From DRF Chart

LIQUOR CABINET (IRE) raced close up along the inside while in hand, came wide  for the drive, lugged in in the stretch and drew clear under a drive. MANCHURIAN  contested the pace along the inside and dug in gamely on the rail in the  stretch. LIEUTENANT DANZ raced with the pace while three wide, was steadied  while between rivals in the stretch and weakened in the final furlong.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie,

Now you know why I moved and stayed south in North Carolina. That level of intelligence came from that fine Jesuit Education in the bronx!!

Good luck with the snow. Don\'t hurt your back (in all seriousness).

NC Tony

[bobphilo]

Tony,

As a fellow Bronx boy who grew in your old neighborhood (Belmont Ave), I can tell you that this snow is murderous. To bad I didn\'t get the advice you gave to Rich in time. I ended up hurting my back shoveling today.

Bob

[P-Dub]

I hope you guys didn\'t watch the golf this weekend, what terrible weather we\'re getting here in No Cal.

[BitPlayer]

Richiebee -

The difference between our approaches is basically the difference between the runs-based stats and the TG-figure-based stats that TG presents for trainers.  Since my handicapping approach is to try to figure out the range in which each horse will run, use that to establish an odds line building in some level of profit for me, and then compare that with the odds offered by the tote, the TG-figure-based approach seems to fit my needs better.

One issue with the runs-based approach is that the data you compile reflects field sizes and (if you are looking at ROI) betting patterns.  If either of those has changed between the time your data was collected and the time you are using the data to handicap a race, you\'ll be misled.  On the other hand, if form cycles have changed (possibly due to use of steroids or other medications), we\'ll both be misled.

A further issue with the data-gathering approach you propose (other than it being a lot of work) is that the pattern the winner has is not necessarily the pattern noted on its TG sheet.  Many horses fail to fall into one of TG\'s narrowly-defined patterns becaue of layoffs or distance or surface changes (in which case I think TG gives you the stats that would apply absent these changes).  If you want to include those winners in your data set, you have to define even more patterns.

[richiebee]

Bit:

   I am sure that the Thoro Patterns are troubling and distracting to the long term TG users who have grown accustomed to identifying lucrative patterns over the years. Certainly there are TG purists out there who probably ignore the TPs altogether. Others probably are offended that TG would try to put what they have taken years to recognize into a simple, short linear formula.

   One of my fascinations with the TG product is that an experienced horseplayer or an owner or trainer should be able to pick up the product, and within hours be able to determine who the fastest animals in a given race are, but the identification of winning or favorable patterns is a skill which would appear to evolve over years of experience.

   Interesting that you mention TG based v \"Run based\" trainer stats. In certain instances one will provide a favorable outlook for a horse or its trainer while the other will not be so positive.

   TG can not be blamed for putting as much information on the page as space will allow. Of all of what TGJB calls the \"ancillary\" data, I think the info presented on a trainer\'s experience with first and second time starters is most informative and unique. However, I am certain there are those long term TG users who are ignoring all of the ancillary matter and focusing strictly on the numerical grid which is at the core of the product.

[shanahan]

I find that the actual horses in a race with an identifiable pattern is quite low reading the TG info...but then again, I only use TQ, not the full sheets.  Comments?

[richiebee]

Shanahan:

    I guess a real wise guy would say that the \"lack of an identifiable pattern\" is, in itself, a pattern.

   

[TGJB]

Shanahan-- I have problems seeing patterns using TQ myself, and I know several other very good handicappers who were weaned on full sheets and say the same thing-- you can\'t see the timing as well. But it was the only way to save space.

[bobphilo]

In looking for patterns, the \"expression, \"in the eye of the beholder\" comes to mind. The ancients thought they saw the gods and other astrological figures in the random patterns of the stary sky. If you\'l recall the matematician in \"A Beautiful Mind\", he could detect secret messages in newspaper articles. at first he was correct but then starting seeing all kinds of patterns and messages that existed only in his own mind.
Not to say there aren\'t real patterns, but given the multitude of events, one can often see just what one is expecting to see.
As Hamlet said, \"a man can smile and smile and stll be a villian\". Something can occur several times and still not be a pattern.

Bob

[shanahan]

I hear ya Bob and TGJB...the things I spot easily are horses that pair up - they run 2 good ones and move forward (young horses) or they run good/bad/good/bad - those are easy.  What I look for and CAN spot with TQ are the slow, steady ones who progress just a point or two and keep doing it...kind of what we are all looking for right now!  

This is why I applaud not only the ROTW, but also the \"create a card\" concept...nothing worse than  a full field of 12 horses running between 13-15 pts between them (Oaklawn early races).

Have you guys wondered what the hell is going on running Round Pond on Thursday?  And Brilliant/Jostled on the same Thursday card?  Whoever scheduled this and ignored weekend racing needs a calendar.