TG delivers 47-1 Gravesend winner

[Kasept]

Thx to TG for 47-1 Banjo Picker today in the Gravesend. The shipper with oddball connections totally figured in the mix today off his series of consistent efforts and wouldn\'t have been obvious, to me, otherwise...

Missed the boffo exotics, but the Banjo pickin\' left me grinnin\' when the PA-bred gutted out the win..


Steve

[richiebee]

Congrats, Kasept.

The cynical side of me was thinking, watching the 47/1 bomb outgame the 45/1 bomb in the Gravesend, that NYRA could make good use of the 185,000 some odd dollars which make up the carryover pool...like to meet the dark week payroll.

[shanahan]

the analysis naturally picked a different horse.  Jerry - any more thought to putting the author on the analysis?

[Mall]

Looking back, since it wasn\'t one of my races yesterday, I see the play, but have this question: why not 17-1 Acclimate and/or, if applicable, how did you decide between the two. Congrats on a nice score.

[Kasept]

Mall..

You\'re right, and I absolutely included the 4! Boxed the winner with Acclimate (4), Saay Mi Name (5) and Presidentialaffair (7), and played Banjo straight as the price soared...

Didn\'t write about it last night as I was still stunned, but it was quite a day as I went 5/6 in the \"6\". Man of Danger beat me in the 8th as I tanked with Kohut and Runningforpresident.. Uggh. To have the 47-1 horse in the feature and miss the megascore on a Levine with FTL was tough to take. And let me say that the word \"consolation\" is inappropriate for how it feels to botch one of these.

My play was posted for anyone to use on my Derby Trail site yesterday morning:
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/DerbyTrail/message/1200

I\'ve never been so close on a \"6\" before...

Steve

[TGJB]

Shanahan-- there is no way that horse can be considered an obvious play, and this once again points out the advantage of learning how to use the data yourself. But since you brought it up, has anyone been taking the analysis for Hawthorne over the last week or so? Nick has been going nuts-- after the bomb in the stake last week, he put up a 2 by 1 double play that came back $400, and the next day had $25 and $65 horses on the same card.

[shanahan]

I have not looked at the analysis for Hawthorne, but that is most impressive.  I think I use the analysis differently than most.  I rely on it simply for those times I don\'t have the time to properly handicap a card via the # info, but am at the track or watching for fun...and I have had terrible luck with it compounded by looking at the figs AFTER the fact and wondering how in the world the author would choose \"X\", or overlook \"Y\".  

[TGJB]

Shanahan-- in those situations, feel free to ask here what the thinking was. We\'re not going to discuss races before the fact (except ROTW), and anyone can redboard. But this would be a good chance to have handicapping discussions about races where we were on the record before the fact.

Just keep in mind that the three of us who do the analysis (Nick and Alan, and myself occasionally) disagree a LOT. The picks are not just about the data-- they are about the handicapping styles of those that use the data.

[shanahan]

will definitely take your advice, and join the discussions as well.  thank you.  I am so confused about what to think @ all the talk on drugs (I don\'t pretend to know who uses a particular vet) I may just sit out the annual trip down to GP next month...

[marcus]

Nice going - Sabatini looked like a very reasonable and rational play . I\'m guessing Banjo Picker ran a 3 or 4 + pt top ...