Probability

[bobphilo]

Michael,

Agreed, I think the discussion digressed because of confusion between the statements that a) There is equivalence of performance at the same class level at different distances, and
b) That this implies that the same horse will show this equivalency at all distances.

As to your question, I am skeptical that the TB gene pool has changed so radically in the last few decades relative to the last 300 years or so of selective breeding. Jerry's research does indicate that horses may have gotten faster overall but not for genetic reasons but, more likely, due to drugs. Moreover, he has observed this improvement in general and not limited to sprints. I have seen no evidence that the average times of sprinters have gotten better relative to the average times of routers. If so, Jerry and all the other figure makers would have seen it in his figures, the same way he saw it overall, and corrected it to restore equivalency. Otherwise the figures would lose almost all utility.  
Remember we are not just talking about sprinters getting faster, but that they are getting faster RELATIVE to routers. There is considerable physiological overlap in the factors that make both sprinters and routers better runners (stride efficiency, cardiovascular function, etc.) so it would be very unlikely to be able improve one over the other. In any case, it would take much much longer than improving one trait over an unrelated one.
Even in the unlikely event that sprinters have improved over routers, the probability is near zero that the difference is so extreme as to make an 8th place performance in a sprint better than the winning performance of a router at the same class level.
In short, even if breeders have been breeding more for speed lately:
a) There is no evidence that sprinters have become better than routers in the given time frame.
b) Even if this were so, it could not be enough to make a poor sprinter better than an excellent router.
c) It is inconceivable that figure makers would not have picked this up and adjusted their pars so as to maintain equivalency. As Jerry has said, without the equivalency of performances for each class level,  he could not even begin to make figures and I would have no faith in using them.

Hope this answers your question.

Bob

[Easy Goer]

\'If you believe those Ragozin numbers, you are saying that if Imperialism ran as \"well\" as he did in the BC (he finished 8th in the Sprint) one race earlier, he would have won the Gold Cup.\'

Not everybody liked this analogy. I thought it was great. In fact, I used the same logic at CD this year (Derby Day infield). In the first race, a horse named Northern Stag was running. I recall that he was coming off a -5 TG effort. It would have taken many a mint julep for me to believe that this NW1 would fit in well with a horse like Ghostzapper, and as I threw the figs away I could be heard muttering something about the worth of the paper they were printed on...