"Luck of the Draw"

[jimbo66]

For those of us that want bet against some of these favorites, the draw could not have gone any better.

1.  Ouija Board draws post 13 out of 14.  I won\'t rehash what I wrote before about the race, but now the outside draw is one more obstacle for this horse.  Film Maker, Wend and Wonder Again drew well.

2.  Lost in the Fog\'s position doesn\'t seem bad at first glance, drawing 7 of 10.  However, if you look at a couple things, you will see it might be.  Attila\'s Storm drew post 2 and Pat Valenzuela was named.  That horse will fly out of the gate, especially with PVal up.  Silver Train and Battle Won drew 3 and 4.  I don\'t think ST has the gas to run early with LITF, but he might.  BW does have that gas.  Wildcat Heir, another contender, also drew inside LITF.

3.  Leriodes finally runs out of luck and draws post 12.  Sand Springs, the likely pacesetter draws inside and Artie Schiller, a top contender, drew real well down at 2.  I know the Widener at a mile is supposed to be OK for outside posts, but we\'ll see.  I am sure Frankel would have preferred middle in.

4.  Classic and Saint Liam draws 13 of 14, with the 1 1/4 race that starts on the turn.  Big disadvantage and it probably offsets some of the \"fig advantage\" the horse has.  Of course the horse has tactical speed in a race without much in it, but he doesn\'t figure to get the soft \"favorite\'s trp\" that GZ got last year in the Classic.  RHT drew the rail.  I think the draw confirms that these two will be closer in post time odds than the offshore books are showing.

Interesting, interesting.  

[scottv]

Ouija Board was hurt the most by the draw.

Leroy has stalked before and has enough speed to get over before the first turn.

Bailey won with Cigar in the outside post in 1995 at Belmont and there is no reason he can\'t do it again with Liam.  If this race was run at Lone Star with these posts, RHT would be the legitimate favorite and Liam would have no chance.
But this course gives Liam as good a chance with any SINCE bailey is on board.

Taste of Paradise, I think, drew bad.  LIFog\'s main problem is that he will race four wide most likely around the turn.  Imperialism, with a closing kick, drew well and has a shot to come in the money.

Distaff will have lots of pace up front, closer\'s race to lose.

Comments welcome as post position has everything to do with final opinions.

[miff]

I think LITF drew perfect. Leroi and St. Liam drew awful,imo, and will have to be \"used\" to get position.Ouija Board will probably break and settle anyway so I don\'t think the post is too bad given her style and the maybe softish going.

[jimbo66]

scottv,

There is only 1 turn in the Mile race.  There is no \"first turn\".

Disagree very strongly with your view on the 1 1/4 disadvantage being greater at Lonestar than at Belmont.

Cigar was tons the best when he won.  

Belmont \"regulars\" will tell you that you don\'t want an outside draw with a speed horse going 1 1/4.  For closers it doesn\'t matter, since they will just drop back and cross over.  Unbridled won from post 14 in this race I believe.  

SL is the best horse, but the draw levels the field a little bit.  

Agree on distaff, since Stellar Jayne and Ashado drew side by side, down inside, with speed right outside them as well.  Society Selection might actually get pace to run at. If she does, she has a shot.

Leroides has been 1w/1w for his last 9 races or something like that.  Maybe he saves ground again, but I would guess not. Since he only has ONE figure that makes him superior to everybody else, any ground loss could be important.  Of course if runs back to his Atto mile, he wins.  But his other races only make him \"one of the contenders\", in which case trip matters.  I don\'t think you want 7-5 if you need a great trip to win.  The question is whether he runs back to his Atto Mile or not.  Because he \"might\", he has to be on my multi-race tickets.  Whereas Ouija Board and LITF don\'t have any races that make them the overwhelming choice, I think they are more vulnerable.

What to do with Ashado as the favorite is the toughest call for me, in deciding how to use favorites.

Linesmaker may have gotten it wrong when he went for Shakespeare as the favorite.  Seems like a Euro should be the choice.  Azamour on good ground and Bago on soft ground.

[Michael D.]

just quickly:

- film maker and wend benefited big time from the draw. WA did pretty well. some of the other good ones have a problem.

- leroid did well. he\'s a big horse with a long stride. he will have to be used a bit out of the gate, but his danger was getting stuck inside and getting bothered at the start. he has closers/stalkers on either side of him, and he should break running with a bit of room on either side. he will sit just off SS, probably get a 2w trip.

- ashado and velazquez from post three. might be the slowest horse ever to win over $5 mio.

- the euros all fared well in the turf. no excuses.

- bit o gold, starcraft, and SL drew outside. they would all prefer to stalk just off the pace. with a lot of stalker types entered, they will now be forced to be nudged a bit out of the gate to avoid too much ground loss. stevens and RHT got lucky, and if prado wants the lead with suave, he probably gets it pretty easily. ground loss is always an issue, but it\'s going to be HUGE in this race.

Great news all around!  

I guess I\'m going to have to get involved in the Classic.  

[BitPlayer]

Do you think may be Battle Won and/or Silver Train will try to get the Squirtle Suirt trip rather than sending?

A further issue for LITF is that I think Lifestyle may be sent to his outside, forcing LITF to either run between horses or take dirt in the face.

[jbelfior]

CH---


As a big pace guy, you have to be looking at a more kindly scenario for FLOWER ALLEY, yes???



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jbelfior]

If we are going to have visions of sprint bombers dancing in our head,is ATTILAS STORM this year\'s THUNDERELLO???



Good Luck,
Joe B.

Joe,

Yes.

Even though I think being rank and dueling with his rabbit hurt him in the JCGC, I think he ran poorly there. That was a fast pace for 10F, but it wasn\'t a fast pace for 8F and he was already done by then. Naturally, the key is whether he can recover his best form. I think that if there was anything wrong, Pletcher would stop on him. TP has turned horses around off a dull effort before. He just did it with Ashado and last year Speightstown looked a little dull coming in. He\'s not as good as St Liam, but given a decent pace scenario and a bad draw by St Liam I think he\'s usable at a big price. I put a small bet on him in the future pools at 25-1. I wouldn\'t be shocked if doesn\'t do much running, but I couldn\'t pass that price up.

[scottv]

As far as Turf races go, the key is just how good the inside part of the track is compared to the outer portion.  If Leroy can get to the 3path at the first turn, or only turn, then he his ability to run his \"A\" race may be much better than others.  Artie definitely drew well.  I don\'t like the Euro\'s here so I am leaning to Leroy and Singletary, maybe funfair as well.

Turf.  Lots of pace sets this up for the Euro\'s and Better Talk Now.

F/M Turf.  Luas Line drew well.  Anybody\'s race, great exotics play.


Classic--  Bailey is the only reason I give Liam a shot still.  Yes, normally I would toss this horse.  But this a weak race compared to other years.  there\'s not much speed here, so Liam could stalk 3 wide.  As usualy, Classic is very hard to handicap.  I think Super Frolic drew well maybe third place?

Distaff--- I like closers in this one.

Sprint---  Not sure what to make of this.  Doesn\'t look like much speed but that is usually when there is a breakneck around the first turn.  I am leaning to taking Tparadise.

[kev]

He does have rest into the race and has a big last number.