Start at the Beginning/ Juvie Fillies

[richiebee]

Last year in this race I took a strong position with Dance Away Capote, the only one of Graham Motion\'s 3 BC entrants who really didn\'t fire.

This year, the New York based fillies (Adieu, Folklore and Sensation) look fastest, in addition to having a home field advantage. They also all seem to project to be near the lead, where they would be joined by She Says It Best, Knight\'s Templar and Diamond Omi.

If a quick pace develops, who will pounce?

Two that have drawn my attention are coming out of the Arlington Lassie.. the winner of the Lassie, Original Spin is a 2/2 lifetime Ill bred by Distorted Humor. Looking at DH\'s TG sire stats, his 2YO TGI compares favorably with other stallions with runners in this race and he is a prolific sire of 2YO SWs.

2nd to Original Spin (and favored) in the Lassie was D Wayne\'s \"other\" filly, Ex Caelis. She has progressed with each race as the distances have increased. A February foal by FuPeg out of a Nijinsky mare, she is bred to go longer than she will probably ever be asked to race. Looking at FuPeg\'s Sire Profile, he has sired 22 2YO winners from 89 starters (25% strike rate).

These fillies each should be away from the gate at odds of 15/1 or more.

Of the 3 NY fillies who I have seen race, Folklore (her dad Tiznow won the BC Classic at Belmont) has impressed the most. Can she be reserved off the lead or will she be anxious to engage Sensation, the other stretch out sprinter?

The likely favorite, Adieu, is a bet against for me even though she is 2/2 at Bel and 4/5 overall. From a TG standpoint, she hasn\'t shown much forward progress between July and October.

[Upper Nile]

If you want more to like about Original Spin, Take a look at the 2 yo. TG numbers for Original Spins\' stakes winning full brother, Humor at Last.  The numbers for her short two races career has me interested in her.  Came out running a good fig 1x out.  Just right in my book for a 2yo filly.  Not slow and not ridiculusly fast as to hurt.  Then she moves forward 3 3/4 points down to a number that again should not hurt, and to me puts her in a spot to contend needing only another not-so-big forward move.  Original Sin is unlike Knight\'s Templar, Ex Calelis, Diamond Omi and Foklore who to me have improved too much in too short a time. She has already run as fast as one of the co-favorites Adieu. Another who will take $$$ Sensation bounced off her big fig first out and although she has now gotten back to her top the 2 races in between went from a big X to another big X.  She says it Best, any opinions about her pattern?