Muskrat Ramble

[richiebee]

Surprised nobody is excited about what Ed Fountaine calls the \"Muskrat Ramble\" a/k/a New York Showcase Day, which this year is \"powered by Dodge\".

Saw an interesting PP in the DRF today at the Meadowlands (not interesting to me from a wagering standpoint). In race 8 may I present Two Step Kid, a T Pletch trainee who will be making his first NA start.

In his debut as a 2YO at the end of 03, he broke his maiden at Lingfield (all weather surface). The comment says that his time of 1:11.2 for 6f set a new 2YO track record.

As a 3YO, he won once, a $155,000 ungraded, er.. ungrouped hcp at 6f on the turf. He beat 19(!) other colts that day and was 14/1. In subsequent races, he was a 5/1 favorite in a 19(!) horse field, a 7/2 favorite in a 15(!) horse field, and went off at 9/1 in a 28(!!!)horse field. Talk about value opportunities.

Will watch with interest, but not wager, on this 5f dirt race. Two Step Kid is by Gone West out of a Northern Dancer mare and will receive Lasix for the first time.

NC Tony-- Jethro Bodine (who was not educated by the Jesuits) continued his ciphering: In October (114 races) the average win mutuel at Oak Tree was $12.11. (Kee 17.96, Bel 14.77). Is what you are calling value simply a function of the size of fields? Jethro\'s next assignment might be to study field size v. percent of winning faves

[P.Eckhart]

20 runner sprint handicaps are not \'value opportunities\' they are bookmaker benefits, that is why they are all sponsored by bookmakers

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie,

I\'m an exacta/tri/Super/Pick4/pic3 player (lesser on that last one). I usinng the \"E-Manuel\" approach as well to accumlate payout data for the KEE meet so far. What I have seen is even when odd\'s on horses win, the tri\'s and supers have been very generous. I \"Had\" the numbers in a $35K and $80K and $6K super that weekend with only one out of place. Even though I won a few dollars, I walked away saying woulda coulda shoulda.  Yes they are tough to hit, but damn they can pay a few bills.....They had a pick four last weekend over $180K.

NYRA just has too many sharp Bettors who know how to spread is really my point. SoCal does as well. Thats why you need to \"consider\" alternatives to find wagering value.

NC Tony

[miff]

NC Tony said:



\"NYRA just has too many sharp Bettors who know how to spread is really my point. SoCal does as well. Thats why you need to \"consider\" alternatives to find wagering value\"


Yo, Ex NY Tony,

You are dead right on NY.There are guys still \"quasi\" batch betting making it very difficult to find hidden value and score.Within the past two years I have gotten somewhat involved in So Cal and find they are not that sharp and tend to overbet some bad chalk. With the large pools in So Cal there\'s a shot to score big also.

I can\'t step out at Keeneland as it seems impossible to zero in with the courses so slow and dull.