Senza Aglio

[NoCarolinaTony]

Alan,


During the seminar last week you mentioned that if there ever was a time for this horse to jump up and improve today(Last Friday) was the day. As I recall his pattern was repeated recent figs (don\'t have sheet in front of me)but no where near the best fig for the race.

As it turns out the Fav (best Fig Horse) bolts on the turn leaving it a wide open affair with Senza Aglio running on late and winning at 16-1 to win by 4 lenghts.

Can you explain to me again why you said that. What about that horses pattern lead you to that conclusion. I really think this is one of those area\'s I need to improve upon in my skills in sheet reading as I missed out on a big score that day.

Thanks,

NC Tony

[TGAB]

Tony,

Attached are the shhets as they appeared for 9/2/5 5th race. You\'ll see that Senza Aglio is 2nd slowest of those that have run and by a pretty good margin. Shade The Cat and Najib are 2 points faster, and Bold Love, Slam and Coastal are 4 to 5 points faster on thier best day. Asmussen also had Doc Hook a 1st timer and his 1st timers were running well , especially with Bailey up as he was here.

I\'d like to tell you it\'s a subtle read but that\'s not the case. Senza Aglio came out with a pair of 13s, not a bad debut and the 2nd reinforced that effort. He threw in a clunker stretching out in mud but immediately came back to it taking a regular turn in Fla no less and then paired the 13 again going a mile. After a rest he ran back at Sar 13 days prior to the 9/2/5 race. He ran 13-3/4 which for intent in purposes is another 13, so he paired again.

The yin of the pattern is that he keeps banging out 13s so when he appears on track he runs his race. Except for excuse-laden off race, he\'s banged out the number every time. Now off the layoff he essentially comes right back to it for an okay layoff trainer. The fact that he hasn\'t regressed is a good sign.
 
The yang is that he hasn\'t developed a lick since he started, not a good sign, but the pattern is solid if stagnant.

The kicker here is trainer Toner is very good 2nd off the layoff and if Senza Aglio was able to run 13s in November he\'s certainly capable of running better 10 months later, especially as a 3yo. Now he was slow relatively speaking, which accounts for the odds, but pattern-wise he looked to run and he did.  
   
 

[NoCarolinaTony]

Alan,

Thank you for the explanation. This is exactly what we should be looking for in \"open races\". I finally see what you are saying here!! It\'s a valuable lesson to learn hear on how to gain better insight into becomming a better sheet reader and will now include this type of thought process for the future. Sometime it takes a second pass to finally get it.

Thanks,
Tony