Zero -- Two

[SoCalMan2]

In Jimbo66\'s post on the thread about comparing sheets, he mentioned how he sees a \"0-2\" and feels a horse is going to \"X.\"  

I know Jimbo66 was not focusing on patterns but trying to illustrate something else, but I wanted to get some clarity on the famous \"0-2-X.\"  I always thought that the \"0-2-X\" was not a theory for predicting an \"X\" but rather intended to predict a new top.  In other words, you tend to see \"0-2-X-NEW ZERO.\"  

Have I understood correctly the theory on \"0-2-X?\"  I do not apply strict rules to my sheet reading and look at each sheet individually to determine how I think the pattern will influence today\'s number, so this is something I am weak on.  While it seems to me that there are certainly times where a \"0-2\" will lead to an \"X\" (especially with an older cheap animal or where the \"0\" was an insane or unsupported new top), there are other times where a \"0-2\" can be a very positive pattern.  For example, a 3 year old who was 8-5-8-4 as a 2 year old comes back at 3 and a 4-2-4 with nice spacing, I would play such an \"0-2\" to make a new top and certainly run no worse than the \"2\" with a very high likelihood of pairing up the \"0\" if the new top does not come. Of course, the odds you are getting can always influence what you end up doing, but I would not be confident that such a horse would be \"X\"-ing.  

If, and this is a big if, I am correct that a \"0-2-X\" is supposed to portend a new and better top, has anybody developed any sort of theory as to why this is?  Is the idea that the small bounce off the top indicates that the top is a real, well-supported top and should not be that hard a top to improve further on?  I would still be leery of a \"0-2-X\" if it showed up on a 7 year old claimer.  These guys often move in cycles and all you are seeing in a \"0-2-X\" is the down slope off a peak. Often, the period of the cycle may be determined more by time than it will be by hitting the opposite side of the cycle.

[miff]

So Cal,

From reading and studying the sheets(mainly TG) for 20 years, the 0-2-X pattern/theory is nothing more than random , imo. For every X off an 0-2 pattern you will find pairs, tops, offs.

This supposed pattern fails to show a horse(for ex.) that is held late or winning easily giving it the \"2\" which, often, is not necessarily an indication of an X in the next start.

For the dogma guys, don\'t bother pointing out a sample of 0-2-X or I\'ll post 20 non samples.Without question the most reliable pattern I have found on TG is the CIRCLE pattern which when present is a great opportunity to step out and make a good score.

[TGJB]

SoCal-- historically, sheets theory was that a top followed by a 2 point backward move was likely to result in an \"X\", and that there was a good chance for a good race following that, at a price, due to the public taking the X too seriously. Even that was too simplistic-- X\'s are much more significant on some horses than others (like ones that seldom run them, or stake horses). But nowadays horses bounce much less (and less often) than they used to, due to better sportsmedicine, and a lot of those old patterns have to be viewed in a different light. That\'s why we only went back a few years with the Thoro-Patterns-- we could have increased sample size by going back farther, but that would have been doing the apples/orange thing you-know-who is so fond of. (And by the way, most discussion of patterns from several years ago, whether on tapes or anywhere else, is outdated at this point).

Bottom line, the right way to approach these questions is to realize it\'s all percentages, and that there are a lot of complicating factors. That\'s exactly what the Thoro-Patterns are for-- a new top followed by a 2 point backward move (0-2) would be top-off, an 0-2-X top-off-X. When you are trying to decide what to do with (for example) a May 3yo coming off an 0-2-X, look at the TP percentages, keeping in mind the distinctions I made in my original discussion of the TPs (hopefully available somewgere on this site). If the top is a 6 point new top after 15 races, that\'s not the same as a 2 point top with a previous paired top after a six race career. Etc., etc.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So Cal,
>
.Without question the most reliable pattern
> I have found on TG is the CIRCLE pattern which
> when present is a great opportunity to step out
> and make a good score.

You mean the progressive cycling back semi circle pattern correct? Where the horses top is competitive, he hasn\'t run it in a while but his recent efforts are progressing towards it.

Those plays can get you very nice odds at times.

[miff]

CTC,

This pattern is sometimes \'hidden\" and I have been very lucky with it.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yeah, I know what your saying. One of my favorite plays in that regard is the buried Turf effort by a non turf horse.

He sucks on the Turf and perhaps hasnt faired particularly well in dirt starts after turf, but his last race (on Turf) though uncompetitive and looking poor vs. the dirt figures of his competitiors was his best or near best Turf effort ever. Many times that signals the cycling back and is not apparent because Turf numbers are generally slower. It\'s an odds angle.



was his best effort miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC,
>
> This pattern is sometimes \'hidden\" and I have been
> very lucky with it.

[SoCalMan2]

Thank you for the response.  It seems like you are confirming that rote application of 0-2-X is not applicable, and each horse needs to be examined individually. This provides me comfort that I am not missing out on anything here.

As to the circle pattern discussed by others, agreed.  

One of the things that I think make the products we use (whichever they are) so good is that they give you the whole (or most) of a horse\'s career on a graph.  Sometimes the very best prices come up when the 10 lines of text you get on the form look weak, but, when you can get a good perspective from the horse\'s career on a graph, you know that the lines on the page are deceiving.  Just love when that happens