The cursed Sub 6.0 2yo figs

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

One of Derby1592 criteria for Derby tosses is running too fast as a 2yo, that being less than a 6.0. I\'m not sure if I subscribe to this theory, not enough data. Anyway: s next to the number = sprint, r= route; date and amount of the move. There are some omissions because of known injuries, fillies will also be out of the mix.

Came Home 4.0s x 2  7/15  7.1t

D\'Coach 5.0r  12/7  4.2t

Fonz\'s 5.0s + 5.0r  11/17  2.2t

Gold Dollar 5.3r  11/4  5.0t

Harlans Holiday 2.1r  11/4  4.3t

High Star 5.3r  11/24  2.1t

Monthir 4.2r  10/26  4.0t

Werblin 3.1s  12/26  9.0t

Mayakovsky 5.0s?  9/1  1.2t est. ran with Came Home same race

Stephentown 5.0s  11/23  4.2t

IBN AL Haitham 5.3r  9/29  3.3t

Request For Parole 3.2r  11/4  5.3t

Siphonic 4.2r  10/26  2.2t

War Native 4.2s  11/17  5.0t

There you have all the automatic tosses ;>)

bdhsheets

[derby1592]

Bdsheets,

There have been some horses (probably a longer list than the one below) that ran sub-6 figs as a 2yo but never made it to the Derby (e.g., Macho Uno). Unfortunately, I don\'t have that list.

I do have a list such horses that did actually make it into the Derby over the last 7 years: Afternoon Delights (5.25 as 2yo), Halory Hunter (6), Favorite Trick (5.75), Artax (6), Excellent Meeting (5), High Yield (5), More Than Ready (4.25), Captain Steve (3.75), AP Valentine (5.5), Songandaprayer (6), Express Tour (5) and Point Given (3.5).

As you inferred, certainly not enough data to make a strong case but enough to make you wonder. Some of these horses may have had other strong factors (pace and breeding) to explain their poor performances. However, it is a fact that no horse has yet run a 6 or lower fig as a 2yo and managed to hit the board in the Derby. The trend in recent years has been toward more of these fast 2yos but such horses have yet to make an impact on the first Saturday in May.

Good luck to all.

Chris

[MO]

Chris,

In regard to your list, of those mentioned, I tossed every horse mentioned except for Captain Steve and I think High Yield for reasons regarding breeding.

Your point about sub 6 figures as a 2yo is a noteworthy one, and one that causes me some concern regarding my pick this year, Repent.

However, I was in a similar situation in 1993 when the horse I touted for 6 months, Sea Hero entered the Derby after a 4th place finish. Part of my criteria was that every winner of the Derby had an on the board finish in his final prep. Sea Hero finished 4th in Blue Grass after a troubled trip which certainly cost him 3rd money.
I had this discussion when I was a co host of a radio show in New Mexico with a fellow handicapper from New York who went by the moniker \"The Rabbi\". We had a great back and forth about Sea Hero. After the race, \"The Rabbi\" had conceded that if Sea Hero ran 3rd in the BG, he would have picked him to win the Derby.
Which brings me to the sub 6 TG figures. In this day and age of breeding for speed as opposed to stamina, horses are running faster numbers earlier in thier lives than ever before. They may not be around as 4 yo\'s (entire Derby field of last year)but we are dealing with the now and not the later. And right now, Repent has very little competition. If he stays sound and McPeek doesn\'t get cheated again (Oh no, not that story again LOL), Repent is like Sea Hero, a mortal lock to win the 2002 Derby.
(BTW, Sea Hero paid $36.40 to win at the NM tracks in the days of seperate wagering pools. Bet my last $200 ($100 WP) on him. It was a great day. Unfortunately, Repent will be 5-2 at post time, or less.

Best wishes,
Mark