Diana - Race of the Day

Silver Charm · July 29, 2005, 07:23:28 PM

Top Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf quality field upstages Jim Dandy on outstanding Saratoga Card. Selections and analysis in reverse order.

Winendynme-Ships in from west coast for top notch trainer off one week rest. Looks slower than most and only has Restricted Stakes black type on her resume. Stall company for Anduhar on flight in. Easy Toss.

Finery-Consistent Mare may go back to front end tactics after trying off the pace style in slow fractioned NY Handicap. Regardless either style will not matter.

Shadow Cast-May be doing rain dance in new security stall. Regressed badly next out like all Howard runners did who fired big over Derby weekend. Has little pace to run at. Would appear to fit better in Go for Wand but did not choose to enter.

Que Puntual-Useful sort could be carrying in three race winning streak with a little more luck. Will find todays competition a little different than what she faced at Hipodromo Downs.

Spotlight-Crack Turf Trainer enters runner who has quality tactical speed and ran career top over Saratoga surface. Got needed tightener in Eatontown but diappointing try in Calder Oaks at odds on with fronts resulted in subsequent layoff. Tricky read.

Film Maker-Comes in off very indifferent effort in New York Hdcp. Was put to heavy drive on backstretch to keep contact with slow paced herd only to come running again down strech. Cannot recommend.

Delta Princess-Found career best form under top notch trainer who has improved overall win percentage by around 8 points in new era of testing. Last was better than it looks as had to overcome major traffic problems in very deep strech to get up. Will be perfectly placed turning for home with only question being is she good enough.

Wonder Again-East Coast Queen Bee Turf Mare. Defending champ will give Diana her third career try. Closed gamely in New York but must negotiate outside post and compressed field over firm ground. One out of three aint bad.

Sand Springs-Comes from same barn as Delta Princess and has found rejuvenated career best form. Probably lone speed will be difficult to run down but not as effective at a mile and an eighth as shorter distances. Will be leading down the backstrech, at the quarter pole, the eight pole and must then hold off an onslaught of challengers.

Angara-Best Bet of the Day as the rubber band will coming off for this one. Displayed European style explosive stretch kick in Keeneland allowance win at current distance then wheeled right back with facile victory in Bewitch. Was too confidently ridden in Sheapshead and found little running roon thru entire strech. Effort in Manhatten was signficantly better time wise than New York and beaten only 1 and 3/4 by ground saving winner. Explosive burst will make the difference for future BC Filly and Mare Turf winner.

JEB · July 30, 2005, 06:57:51 AM

Great analysis!

I like Angara at a price but I think Film Maker has a big race in her. She has come back with two competitive T-Graph numbers which included some trouble last out. Motion has done well in the turf stakes at Saratoga over the last couple of years. She looks good to me in a deep field.

A longshot that is intriguing to me is Delta Princess. Bailey rides this one. Only negative is that she looks like the big figs take it out of her and it takes awhile to get back to the top but at a price, i think that it is worth a shot.

To complete my trifecta, I like Wonder Again. Very consistent mare. Seems like she always fires. Hard to knock Toner on the turf at Saratoga.

Sand Springs makes me nervous but she has not performed at her best at 9F so i am taking a shot

John

Fatso · July 30, 2005, 07:28:26 AM

I will be using 2 Keys in this race:

# 4 Shadow Cast and # 9 Spotlight with 2, 6, 8, and 10
all over the exotic.

Thanks and Goodluck!

jimbo66 · July 30, 2005, 09:54:18 AM

What is this with trainers and their insistence on scratching horses and making the racing product worse?

The Grade 1 Diana. A very prestigious race and perfect weather at Saratoga. And 30% of the field scratches, 3 out of 10, including Wonder Again.

Nobody cares about the racing product. Horses run a couple good races, then retire to stud. Great races become good races due to scratches and good races become mediocre and worse.

And nobody in the game cares because the \"patrons\" are gamblers and we will bet our money regardless of the quality of the product. Maybe they are right.......

bdhsheets · July 30, 2005, 10:14:20 AM

SC:

Should the Niarchos Family decide to bring undefeated Divine Proportions to the FM Turf, everyone is running for 2nd money. She\'ll be the shortest price of the day barring some Juvie freak.

richiebee · July 30, 2005, 10:19:14 AM

Jimbo:

Just confirms what most handicappers suspected: WA can not handle rock hard turf. Diana is still a very good wagering proposition, with all of the 7 that remain having a chance to win.

I am a little more disappointed with the turn-out for the Jimbo Dandy. With all of the 3YO contenders and pretenders that were floating around in the Spring, it seems like there should be more than 6 lining up for 1/2 million.

July 30, 2005, 11:00:27 AM

jimbo,

A lot of the rest of the 3YOs are looking at the Haskell now that AA is out. I\'d rather see AA, but that race might be more bettable now.

jimbo66 · July 30, 2005, 11:12:47 AM

You are right, Richie, the Diana is still a bettable race, which is probably mroe than you can say for the Jim Dandy.

But Wonder AGain was a loss to that race. She was the type of horse you could make a stand one way or another on. Either she believed she needed soft ground and you throw her out and get value, or you believe she was the best horse in the race today and you were going to get 4-1.

The Jim Dandy is an awful race (still surprised it was the ROTW).

I think you said in an earlier post you like King of Jazz a little bit. Good luck with him, I wouldn\'t bet him for fifth. I used him in the big race in Canada, but that race (in hindsight) was not a graded stakes race. The filly fell apart completely after a mile, the favorite was injured/retired, the winner came back against a horses that wouldn\'t compete in an nx1 at Saratoaga, and amazingly LOST, supposedly because of pace...... I think Michael posted this a while back, but he was right, time to buy canadian breds, if those horses went for a million bucks (even a million canadian is fine......)

Flower Alley is obviously the most likely winner, I guess if NC goes off at 4-1 or higher, he might be worth a play. Zito has been changing his style to fire fresh off the layoff now.

The turf course has been friendly to frontrunners and horses on the inside. Makes Sand Springs look tougher today than she otherwise might. Every wise guy I know likes Angara as their \"price play\". I think she goes off favored.....

richiebee · July 30, 2005, 12:09:51 PM

Jimbo:

Agreed Sand Springs has pace advantage, and was not hurt by the scratch of Finery. Sand Springs has paired 3s in her last two races, but Film Maker, Angara, Delta Princess, and Que Puntual have all run 1s or 2s on the turf this season. SS should have no opposition on the front end, but has blown large leads in the past.

Still wide open race and hard for me to differentiate. I see the entire field between 5/2 and 12/1. I will spread wildly in this race in P3s, P4s and doubles.

Sand Springs won the Lake Placid at 9 marks (I couldn\'t resist) in 03. Since then she has raced 9f at least 4 times without success. Of course its possible she\'s a new mare for Bill Mott, but he\'s had her for 4 previous races and ran her at a flat mile 3 of those times...

Silver Charm · July 30, 2005, 01:18:44 PM

bdsheets Divine Proportions spent last night in my bed and she assured me she is not coming to the BC and after the beating I just took there I will not be going either.

jimbo66 · July 31, 2005, 09:14:22 AM

Richie,

See what I mean about how this race was killed by the scratches.

Two days ago, somebody posts this as \"the race of the year\".

They scratch the defending champ, the other speed and one other horse and Sand Springs lopes along on a speed favoring turf course in 48 and change. Race over.

Then you get five horses in the Jim Dandy and Flower Alley at 1-2.

Yesterday\'s Jim Dandy was one more example of how awful this year\'s group of 3 year olds are. The races are never competitive. The margins from horse to horse in the Preakness, Belmont and Jim Dandy are incredible. Where is the completition?

All those negative 2\'s, negative 5\'s etc.etc. and now the best 3 year olds in the country are Surf Cat and Flower Alley (I am talking about at a route).

That is not good.

Anybody know who is runnning in the haskell? Is this going to be another Jim Dandy?

Silver Charm · July 31, 2005, 10:47:09 AM

The scratches out of the Delaware Stakes yesterday were ridiculous. What looked like a good betting opportunity, when I downloaded it, turned into an unbettable race with so many scratches. There were only four horses left when there were about dozen entrants.

Where did all the rest of them go? We need some kind of rule unless its approved by the Vet there is a fine or penalty. People show up expecting to see things. There needs to be accountability.

Roman Ruler will be in the Haskell and this would be a good win for the Fog City guys who have sunk a lot of money into the game with minimal success.

With their guy on the premises \"Team Trained by Bob Baffert\" (Moss and Mayne) will be absolutely besides themselves.

I\'ll be searching for the mute button.

richiebee · July 31, 2005, 10:51:28 AM

Jimbo:

The scratch of Wonder Again meant that Sand Springs was 2/1 instead of 4/1...

Where are all the 3YOs? One point I have made consistently is that alot of them were burned up in the winter/ spring chasing the Derby. I will paraphrase/ quote Bobby Frankel once again: the purse of the Ky Derby should be much higher, millions of dollars of horses each year are ruined chasing it.

Think Bailey ever rides for Zito again? JD said Noble Causeway didn\'t feel good warming up, NZ says he walked fine back at the barn.

jbelfior · August 01, 2005, 05:43:35 AM

Silver Charm--

Absolutely the worst thing I have ever seen as far as a race being decimated by scratches. And for what reason?

I loved STAGE CALL going in and raced to Monmouth Park only to see that more than 3/4 of the field had scratched from a stakes race where the turf was listed as firm.

I ended up betting STAGE CALL anyway as he drifted to 5-1 only to watch the Kiaran McGlaughlin dog waltz around the track and SC fly home for 2nd. Full field gets me 20-1 and probably all the money.

Good Luck,
Joe B.