Louisiana Derby, Again...

[TGJB]

...and again.

One of the things you do as a figure maker is to see what other correction could work (obviously, for the whole field-- and that\'s aside from the question of other races). Take a look, tell me what else would work better--  or at all.

The only person that thinks the La Derby figure is wrong is millennium3 and he offered no reason to dispute it. It was M3 against the world on that one.

[jimbo66]

I don\'t think the La Derby figure is wrong, but you cannot really dispute the fact that horses coming out of that race have been \"bet againsts\".  

I guess some don\'t think there is such a thing as a \"key race\" or \"negative key race\", but it would seem that the La Derby fits the latter.  High Limit hasn\'t won since (I will you give you that the Bluegrass race was probably fast), Kansas City Boy was awful, Vicarage was awful until this past weekend, Storm Surge (not run well since), Scipion (did he run again?)

Jerry, in a related topic, I saw your post about High Limit and his figure being not so bad in the race Sunday after you adjust for ground loss and such, but take a step back and look at this horse.  Isn\'t it time to \"cut bait\" on him?  He earned a \"1\" as a two year old.  He goes to a high profile barn like Frankel\'s, and doesn\'t run a lick in the Derby, gets trounced in the Preakness, and now comes in 3rd in a five horse race at Delaware, losing to a horse that ran the day before and then shipped.   I know he was your Derby pick and Preakness pick and either you or Allan picked him again this week in the ROTW, but it seems that chasing horses like this is a way to go the poor house.  For whatever reason he has not progressed from 2 to 3. Even if you give him the two \"pairups\", healthy 3 year olds don\'t run 5 races at 3 without getting a new top.  

It would seem it is time to give up on this horse.  Anyway, Chuckles likes the horse, so I am probably wrong and he will win the BC Classic.........

[TGJB]

On the key race question, I don\'t believe that simply being associated with an event makes a horse better or worse. (The line I used on Post Time was, \"I was a decent schoolyard basketball player who had occasion to play with some much better players. Afterwards, unfortunately, I was still just a decent schoolyard player\"). But most of those horses just weren\'t running that fast, and didn\'t figure to win even if they ran their race in later spots (with the exception of Vicarage, who has a history of cycling to and from big efforts, and again, CH, leave it alone).

HL is a tough question. At this point he looks like an early developer. My guess is that he will get around a 2 or so here (that gives SK his zero), before adjusting for the OP, so in effect he may have run back to his top. By now he should have broken through, so that ain\'t great. I doubt I\'ll be playing him next time at level weights against top 3yos-- they have been developing, and he has not, so running bak to his top won\'t do it. But if he is ever going to break through, next time is probably his last shot as a 3yo, so I won\'t be throwing him out at a price if a 2 point move makes him a winner.

[bdhsheets]

As a 2yo, High Limit was cranked to the max under Tony Dutrow. It\'s a small miracle that Frankel has been able to get him to his top. I sincerely doubt there\'s any development left with this horse. Didn\'t the connections turn down big $$$ for HL?

In a similar vain, Baffert has become stupid with Sort It Out. He\'s only been able to get him back to his top once in 4 or 5 races since the purchase from Rich Violette.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bdhsheets Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As a 2yo, High Limit was cranked to the max under
> Tony Dutrow. It\'s a small miracle that Frankel has
> been able to get him to his top. I sincerely doubt
> there\'s any development left with this horse.
> Didn\'t the connections turn down big $$$ for HL?
>
> In a similar vain, Baffert has become stupid with
> Sort It Out. He\'s only been able to get him back
> to his top once in 4 or 5 races since the purchase
> from Rich Violette.
>


I make a thousand connection errors, but I think he got this horse from Allan Iwinski. I\'m sure I mispelled it. He had won the Whirlaway is my recollection and that man didn\'t just fall off the turnip truck.

[bdhsheets]

Sorry on the connection error and Iwinski makes it worse. Purchasing a horse from any move up trainer is buying a pile of fool\'s gold.