Comment + Question to TGraph

[jimbo66]

I will start with the question.  Just wondering if TGraph ever considered offering its customers a monthly subscription fee, instead of charging per track.  I am guessing there are a lot of people out there who may play multiple races during a racing day, but not necessarily all the races at a particular track.  For instance, some days I might play races at 4 tracks, other days just one track, some days many races, some days a couple races.  The nine races from any track on any race day, kind of solves some of this.  I am curious though if the \"monthly subscription\" fee has ever been considered.  I know it is a longstanding tradition for \"sheets\" and \"t-graphs\" to be $25 per.  But monthly subscription might also lock in revenue for T-Graph, while providing flexibility for its customers.

The comment is a jockey gripe, technically not something this board should be used for.  I noticed that in the redboard room, whoever did the analysis also selected Reel Legend in the feature at Belmont yesterday.  Watching that race, I almost threw my PC monitor through the window.  It is an example of another thing that makes this game so hard.  The horse had fast dirt numbers on T-Graph and was being pointed to the Belmont before his race on Preakness day.  He got a bad start in that race and encountered trouble.  Now you have Jimmy Jerkens (a sharp trainer in my book and most people\'s books), putting an established fast dirt runner, on turf, in a stakes race, well rested.  I was hoping for 5-1 or better, but took the 4-1, with one concern.  Jose Santos is the jockey.  This guy \"strangles back\" more speed runners than any jockey I have ever seen and is the worst \"name\" jockey I have seen in the past 15 years.  So, do you bet a horse you like on all counts/angles, even if the jockey who is riding is somebody you can\'t stand and think is one of the worst with a license?  I bet the horse.  Anybody watch that race?  The horse breaks on top in a paceless race.  Going into the first turn, santos is choking the horse, pulling on him so hard the horse is almost jumping in the air to escape from the chokehold.  Down the backstretch, Santos continues the chokehold for almost 3/4 of a mile.  Prado, a jockey with a brain, sees this and goes after the lead and takes it.  Santos then pulls the coup de grace and takes the horse all the way back to last entering the far turn.  Then, halfway through the stretch, the horse finally has daylight, as Prado has a 7 length lead, and the horse charges home to get beat less than a length.  

The worst ride I have seen in quite a while.  Although technically he won\'t get a strong fig from t-graph, since Santos actually stayed in the 1 path, as he strangled the horse relentlessly for almost a mile.  I would like to have seen the horse when he came back to the paddock, he probably had broken blood vessels in his eyeballs from being strangled....

Anyway, curious what others out there do when they like a horse on all counts (figure, form, distance, etc) and yet a particular jockey who they think is awful, is riding the horse.  I am guessing it is best to stay away.  Betting a different horse, and seeing the horse you think is best, win the race, would be even worse in my book.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- we are considering a new sheet notation. It will either be an eyeball with lines in it, or a window with a big hole in it.

One of the problems is that you never know what instructions the trainer gave.

We have looked at the subscription question, but a) it would require programming, b) most people don\'t want to pay a big chunk up front-- if they tap out they won\'t be using the data, and c) we have a number of pros who are taking down the max ($120) almost every day now, and for this to make financial sense we would have to be giving a discount, which would cost us quite a bit with our bigger customers.

Jimbo,

I make my best effort to discount the horses chances due to the jockey\'s riding style.

I\'m a big believer that when horses get loose in moderate early fractions they are getting optimal conditions for running their best possible figure on that day and potentially slowing things down enough to hurt some of the closers.

There\'s 3 major problems with predicting something like that.

1. It takes a lot of insights into the horses\' running styles, previous fractions, and quality of competition to know if someone might get loose.

2. Horses don\'t always run back to their recent typical style. Some show more or less speed than usual, get a bad or extra good break etc..

3. Many jocks aren\'t too sharp when it comes to taking a tactical advantage.  

I just weight the probabilities of various horses winning up or down depending on my estimate of the probabilities of various pace scenarios.

Jockey is one of the factors that contributes to that probability.

The same thing would be true of ground loss etc....  

[Michael D.]

jim,
re the santos ride: probably the worst ride i have seen since i have been watching horse racing.

[jimbo66]

Class,

Thanks for the response but I guess you don\'t understand my question.  I am not discussing riding style or pace and the ability to take tactical advantage of a pace advantage.  It has nothing to do with pace at all.

i am discussing jockey incompetence and I don\'t consider incompetence a style.  For the purposes of my question, nobody has to agree that Santos is competent.  I happen to think he is.  Like I said, the worst in the last 15 years of the \"name jockeys\", is my opinion.

My general question is that we probably each have our views of jockey ability and views on certain jockeys that we may believe have a very low skill level.  In cases where the horse you \"love\" for multiple reasons, is ridden by the jockey you view as incompetent, how do you handle it?  The answer can be a few things I guess.  1)  Ignore the jockey angle and hope you get a good ride.  2)  Skip the race, because you refuse to allow yourself to wager money on an incompetent rider or 3)  Demand a higher price to allow for the incompetence.

If you didn\'t see the race Class, please watch it.  I am not one of the \"OTB guys\" who after every race, blame the jockey for the loss.  I blame a jockey about once a month.  OFten, factors beyond a jockey\'s control, make a ride look bad, while it was just bad luck or happenstance.  But I have seen the Santos \"chokehold\" and incompetence many many times.  I really can\'t believe he gets quality mounts.

[jimbo66]

Thanks Michael.  I thought maybe it was me.  I really felt it was the worst ride I have seen also.  

The \"punchline\" for me was how I bet the race.  I bet win on Santos, as previously mentioned.  I was down to two horses for my exacta box.  Either the European import or the horse Prado rode.  Prado\'s horse looked OK on T-Graph, but at 1 1/4, I worried about the breeding a little bit.  Plus, the turf had give in it, and I tend to think the European horses have an advantage over the softer turf, since they run on it more often.  So, I boxed the European horse instead, with Santos.  The reason I call it a \"punchline\" is that Jamie Spencer rode the European horse.  For those that remember, Spencer put together a littany of rides in last year\'s Breeders CUp that qualified as the all time worst collective group of race rides in a major event.  I remember saying after the Powerscourt ride that I would never bet him again.........

Jimbo,

I didn\'t see the race, but I\'ll take a look. The point I was trying to make via the backdoor was that I don\'t think it\'s all or nothing. If I love the horse but hate the jockey, I downgrade the horse\'s chances. That\'s all.

It just so happens that the biggest flaw I find in jocks is that some don\'t take advantage of pace scenarios that are being handed to them. Santos often doesn\'t. Other flaws are treated similarly.

If I know a guy is too dumb to recognize a dead rail I\'ll downgrade the horse\'s chances relative to someone with similar figures and a rider that\'s more sensitive to that kind of stuff.    

[gatodelsol]

Take Door #3 - Demand a higher price for incompetent jocks.  I would need at least 10-1 to bet Santos.  Besides not having any idea how to judge the pace, he tends to make the Eddie Maple swoop move on the turn more often than not.

[cubfan0316]

dont you think after 5000 mounts that these pee brained midgets would know if there crawlin or not? or just maybe their ......

[richiebee]

Funny that some people who wanted to limit posts on this board to \"TG issues\" are now using it to express jockey angst.

The day before Santos\' magical mystery tour on Reel Legend, he rode in a four horse race at Belmont (Race 7). It was an off the turf event, and there were 3 main track only animals and Santos\' mount at 9/1. \"Pepalito\" opened up a quick 3 length advantage and was never threatened (the other riders were Castellano, Prado and Coa). The top jocks, like the top trainers, have a failure rate in excess of 70%, which makes the game interesting.

Someone mentioned that if Lost in the Fog \"runs the table\" he should be named Horse of the Year. IMO he will not have beaten enough quality competition (especially up until now) to deserve this honor. He would, however, be Eclipse award winning sprinter. If Afleet Alex wins one of his summer 3YO races and beats older in the BC Classic, AA is Horse of the Year and should also be top 3YO. Note: LITF is not BC eligible and would have to \"buy in\".

[richiebee]

Jimbo, sorry I took a mild swipe at you.

I did not see your disclaimer (\"technically, something this board should not be used for\").

[colt]

jimbo,

I watched the race and came away with a different view – Santos rode a DECENT race!  It was not a great ride, but it was FAR from being a BAD RIDE as you stated.  RL, who broke on-top was extremely PUMPED-UP form the get-go – Santos was forced to put the ham-lock on a pumped-up RL to settled him down...RL then shuffled himself back when confronted by challengers to his outside...Santos then went to work to get RL back into contention – Santos took the inside path and finished a NON-THREATENING, but good second to the winner...RL was not GETTING to the WINNER (the final margin is MISLEADING)...Santos was able to salvage a GOOD second...considering that RL wanted to RUN-OFF in the early stages...I would like to think that after 20+ years in the game I can spot a bad ride...This was not one of them....

[jimbo66]

Colt,

I am sorry, but after 20+ years in the game, if you don\'t think that was a bad ride, you are either biased because you like Santos or you had the winner/exacta.  

That was an awful awful ride.  Ask 10 people who saw the race or the replay, even those without action on the horse, it was a disaster.  Strangling a horse for a mile in a paceless race where you have the rail advantage and a horse with tactical speed, then taking him back to last to come running late, is ridiculous.