Eddington Retired - Roman Ruler Scratched

[jimbo66]

Chuckles,

You are chiming in again on figures that you don\'t know, use or seem to understand.  

Northwest Hill came into the first race off of three straight \"4\'s\".  I have no idea what he ran that day, but he seemed to run his race. In any case, I can\'t imagine he ran much faster or slower than that.

1 hour later, Commentator ran the same distance over 3 seconds faster.  

You couldn\'t ask for a better chance to get a handle on the Commentator race than to have a race run at the same distance, about an hour earlier, with a horse in the race who is running consistent figures and who ran his race.

I have no idea what the figure for Commentator will be, but it certainly isn\'t the \"0\" that HP suggested and for you to come to the conclusion that for that one race, the track became lightning quick suddenly, is just off base again.

It is pretty obvious you don\'t use the T-Graph product, which is your prerogative, but then why post about the figures T-Graph assigns?  I don\'t get it.

Jerry, have you done the commentator figure yet?  Significantly faster than a \"0\"?

[TGJB]

I haven\'t done the figure yet, and don\'t know whether anything like rain showers or sealing/unsealing came into play. But while Beyer isn\'t accurate to a tight degree and they have some circuit to circuit problems (less than before), they seldom make big mistakes-- he\'s a pragmatist, where Ragozin is a fundamentalist. The 121 means he ran something in the GZ/Bellamy Road area.

Hopefully this won\'t cook the horse, since I have both financial and rooting interests in the success of Distorted Humor. If I were managing him (anybody listening?), I would give him lots of time, and run him next in a GI. We know he runs well fresh.

I will also add that for whatever reason, there have been a number of Zito horses over the last few years that were one and done, unless given lots of rest (Birdstone). He completely changed his training style to become something of a layoff trainer, and he needs to change his management style to go with it.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

My point is that the number on that day is going to be inherently questionable, no matter what figure is assigned. The reasons are the reasons TGJB mentioned. The track was a huge variable. Remember how quickly that track changed on Belmont day? They are live and breath at times.

Zito is clearly handling Commentator with kid gloves, something troubles him about the hourse and thats something to consider in trying to figure the race, at least in my opinion. Distorted Humor is a horse that was fast and he\'s gotten some fast ones. Commentator is quick but regardless of how you score that Optional Claiming race we\'ve already seen him come unglued under the pressure of real horses. The race I wanna see is a match race: Commentator vs. Bellamania. Who caves first?  regardless of quick track, back figures.

\"If I were managing him (anybody listening?), I would give him lots of time, and run him next in a GI. We know he runs well fresh. \"

They all run well fresh when they\'re 1-5 and lay over their competition.

I think the Forego is a Grade 1. That might be a decent spot, but I\'m not sure of the date. I wouldn\'t want to go into a Grade 1 off a layoff of more than 2 months though. Horses rarely win Grade 1 races off a layoff of more than 2 months unless they are clearly better than the competition. That\'s pretty rare.

Even if they freshen him up a bit, I wouldn\'t bet on this horse duplicating that figure against Grade 1 horses. As well as he ran the other day, it doesn\'t get too much easier than that trip. He won\'t have it that easy against Forest Danger or horses like that.

CTC,

I don\'t know if there was anything done to the track between the first and second race. It did change later in the day because of some rain. Either way, the horses that finished behind him have some decent figures and it appears they ran fairly consistent with their normal level. Based on those numbers I had projected a Beyer of 124 (Beyer made it a 121) and that was fairly consistent with the first race. Either way it was really fast. There\'s little doubt about that. It\'s just a matter of what exact figure you assign. This wasn\'t a day like Wood Memorial day where there wasn\'t much to work with in the feature race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The track was under a lot of maintenance and the turf was good so there was recent significant water. I didn\'t notice rain early, but the time and fractional times and the number of horses on them make it quizzical. I think it was a good race. It was what, less than a click from the track record? I just dont think he ran as fast as he has been and is gonna be scored. When he lines up in a Grade I with the better horses a 7 mark one timer shouldn\'t scare anyone, pretty much conceding its going to be scored very fast.

Also its a shame about Oratory. That Peter Pan looked to be a big race and when he skipped the Belmont you had to think they were doing the right thing by the horse. Now this, what rotten luck for the connections. He seemed to have potential.