Established Pattern

[J-DUB]

Has Afleet Alex now established a pattern where a good race is followed by an off race. With the numbers he gets there\'s not anything wrong with it but is this something to be aware of from here on out? Is it too early to make this assumption? Are patterns like this usually developed with older horses? If this is unique to individual horses, should it be viewed as healthy or not, as a negative pattern or not?
He obviously will be running from now on against horses of his stature as he begins to face older more experienced rivals. I\'m wondering if he will need to be more consistant in his efforts to defeat the others as the pots get bigger.
Any thoughts on this?
Thanks.

[TGAB]

Has Afleet Alex now established a pattern where a good race is followed by an off race. With the numbers he gets there\'s not anything wrong with it but is this something to be aware of from here on out? Is it too early to make this assumption? Are patterns like this usually developed with older horses? If this is unique to individual horses, should it be viewed as healthy or not, as a negative pattern or not?
He obviously will be running from now on against horses of his stature as he begins to face older more experienced rivals. I\'m wondering if he will need to be more consistant in his efforts to defeat the others as the pots get bigger.
Any thoughts on this?
Thanks.

J-Dub poses quite a few questions concerning Afleet Alex\'s pattern. Here\'s what I think in response to the questions and the pattern.

J-Dub, AA has certainly established an 0X0X0X pattern this year so far, where the 0 respesents good efforts, tops in this case, and X represents not so good efforts, bounces. One interesting point is that this is totally different from his 2yo pattern wherein he established a top and stayed there. The pattern has  changed in his sophomore campaign, yet AA passes the tests we\'ve enunciated quite often for good, healthy developing 3yos. Namely:

1. He came back to his 2yo top within 2 races. Indeed he broke through to a negative!! figure 1st out this year;
2. At least every other race is a top effort;
3. Intrinsically, both the good and the bad races are getting better.

Frankly AA\'s pattern is refreshing. Big efforts, especially negative efforts, are suppose to affect horses. And indeed as we see with AA, the big efforts do have an affect. But he recovers, quickly. His tops are at a threshold that very few 3yos horses in the past have run. Bandini, Bellamy Road and Greeley\'s Galaxy put up big negative figures prior to the Derby this year, similar to AA, but they all threw big bounces in the Derby, as did AA but to a lesser degree, and they haven\'t been heard from since. Only Smarty Jones last year is somewhat comparable to AA in recent times--he got back to his big Ark Derby top in the Preakness but the string of efforts finally got to him in the Belmont. In other words even the best horses can react to a big effort and an ensuing bounce shouldn\'t be held against them. The mark of health and strength is that the horse recovers quickly and the mark of talent is that he performs at peak levels, obviously. One can see the strength emanating from AA\'s line. While the tops are coming incrementally, the \"bounces\" are getting much better.

AA\'s sophomore pattern isn\'t unusual, other than the fact that he\'s racing at an extremely high performance level. One is apt to see this type of line in younger, healthy, lightly raced horses that are still growing and developing. They\'re still defining  their boundaries and because they aren\'t fully developed; prosectively there are depths to plumb. In the introductory seminar, available online off the introduction page, we talk about Star of Cozzene, a good turf horse from years past, that exhibited a similar pattern of development.


Now I want to bring up again the seemingly out of place point above about the difference in AA\'s pattern at 2 and 3. Patterns change. As horses develop and grow, hit even higher, more strenuous, exacting performance levels, and/or get hurt, they may react differently from what they\'ve done in the past. That\'s evident here with AA. What I would expect from him down the road, presuming good health, is that eventually the good and \"bad\" efforts will even up. He\'s getting stronger and as an older horse he\'ll be able to put consistent efforts together and perhaps develop even more. The Triple Crown series is fixed in terms of the timing--3 races in 5 weeks--but as an older horse AA\'s connections will be able to pick and choose his fights, so to speak, so presumably he\'ll be given time to recover from efforts which should help him perform on a more consistent basis.  

   

[kev]

In other words, AA is and will be a bad mother @uc$er to come.

[MO]

There\'s just one little problem - the puny odds you will be asked to take. This horse will be odds on until he loses a race, and this is the worst crop of 3yo\'s in recent history. So unless you like a few other races in multi race wagers, all you can do is watch......

[J-DUB]

TGAB,
     Thanks for taking the time to give your response.

The pattern seemed unique to me because of the duplicating tops and off races...
almost identical. I understand your thought about young, developing horses and still finding their niche, so to speak. The fact that AA is not adversely affected, I see what you mean that his efforts are not extreme either way. That makes sense that there is room for improvement.
You answered my follow up question before I asked , which is, would rest between races be a variable that could eventually lead to further improvement.
One other question, based on your own previous observations, would you expect that when AA, or any horse with this pattern eventually breaks through their tops,it would be a small new top or a bigger jump up?
 Thanks in advance.

[P-Dub]

TGAB,
Do you find it more difficult for horses to run tops or pairs when racing at a distance longer than what they are used to?? For instance a horse may excel at anything up to a 1 1/8 but when running longer (such as TC races) the horse may not be able to match the previous figures. However, other horses may have the same problem so while the horse may regress so will the others. I see where some were expecting a regression from AA, but if they all regress it doesn\'t really matter.  Same thing with sprinters, some may excel at 6F but maybe 7F is too much for them despite the figure advantage. How do you handle these situations? Do you pay more attention to the figures, distance, or a combination of both?

MO,
You\'re right from a win bet perspective, but another way to bet is a cold exacta. If I feel an odds on horse can\'t lose, I\'ll check the exacta prices. How many times have you seen a 10-1 horse against an odds on horse pay those same odds for the exacta? You get the same 10-1 odds but its against everyone but the fav. The Met Mile write-up is a recent example of this.

He had a fast 3YO debut.

He got sick.

He ran his race.

In the Derby, he hung - most likley due to moving into the fast pace a tad prematurely. His mile time was quick. I\'d say he even ran a decent figure for 1 1/8 and simply got tired from all the effort in the last 1/8 like many others that got used too hard.  

He ran his race.

In the Belmont his competition was so weak he was able to improve his position between the 1 mile and 1 1/4 mile point without any effort at all. He was only asked to run for 1/4 of a mile (and he flew home).

IMO, he has been the model of consistency at 3 that he was at 2 except for being sick in his 2nd start. That could have been a legit bounce in the 2nd start off a layoff given a very fast debut.

[davidrex]

     Agree w/ c.h.   the derby visually looked like a bounce..but so much has been said of the rail and the fact he seemed to get tired when Rose swung him inside in deep stretch...opinion not fact.
     The arithmetic done on previuos thread [if correct] leads me to believe we won\'t be seeing Alex after Breeders Cup...only way to keep them OFF the farm is to juice the purses to Dubai levels...6 million dollar pots...go easy on the scales...local sponsorship for tracks attempting to lure the champions...artificial insemination to allow horse to run and reproduce simultaneously...6months in New York-6 months in Fla!

             PARTYpokerON!

[spa]

Alex\'s 2 year record speaks to x, o ........NO all 2\'s.  I can\'t see the results of the Triple Crown races as x , o ........

[TGAB]

J-Dub and P-Dub put forth some more questions concerning my response to J-Dub\'s initial question. Here goes.

First off J-Dub you say \"...I see what you mean that his efforts are not extreme either way.\" What I am saying is that AA is performing in manner which is not unusual--he\'s reacting to tops, recovering quickly, and improving. I said the pattern is not unusual \"...other than the fact that he\'s racing at an extremely high performance level.\" Let\'s not forget that qualifier because he is performing at EXTREME performance levels.

The second questions is: \"One other question, based on your own previous observations, would you expect that when AA, or any horse with this pattern eventually breaks through their tops,it would be a small new top or a bigger jump up?\"

The rule is that 3yos are not fully grown and thus are eligible to improve as they mature. But there are caveats, exceptions to this rule. One, the horse may be an early developer in which case it matures quickly and runs its top figures as a 2yo or 3yo. Examining the TG sire profiles can provide hints along this line. The horse population in North America improves on average 7 points from 2 through 5+--look at the TGI, Thoro-Graph Index for all horses, included in each hard copy set, ROTW and posted on the intro page. If a particular sire shows a markedly narrower range of development among its progeny, and a relatively fast 2yo TGI, he probably gets early developers and there\'s a good chance you\'ve seen just about their best at 3. Funny Cide typifies an early developer. Second, not all horses come back to their previous performance levels for reasons which we know not. Maybe it\'s early development, maybe an injury, disinterest. Who knows? But it happens.

Since the pattern is positive I would expect more development. I would look at the sire profile to see how much the typical foal develops as it ages. Northern Afleet progeny show a relatively small number of age 5 and up starts, 75. Notwithstanding that, the progeny improve 8-1/4 points from 2 through 5 & up. AA has developed 5-1/4 points so far, so I foresee more development from him. But once horses starting pushing the performance envelope, development is likelier to come in smaller increments. It\'s hard to gauge just how much more forward the horse can or will go. Suffice to say it\'s not the pattern, per say, but the genetics and pure talent that determines how much a horse will develop. A healthy pattern makes the prospect of improvment more likely, but doesn\'t determine the scope of improvement.    

P-Dub questions: \"Do you find it more difficult for horses to run tops or pairs when racing at a distance longer than what they are used to??...How do you handle these situations? Do you pay more attention to the figures, distance, or a combination of both?\"

In the words of Otis Blackwell--first I look at the purse, only kidding. But seriously I look at the figures first. Now I do happen to believe that particular distances may provide better scenarios for horses to run optimal performances. But I\'m not sure how important that is. Trips, trouble, talent, weight, post, current condition, trainer and jockey competance and other horses are all factors which enter into the handicapping equation. TG sire and dam profiles point to the prospective strengths of their runners and what distances might be best for them. But ultimately the horse determines its preferences. A good, fast 6F horse is much more likely to beat a 7F specialist if the latter isn\'t that fast to begin with. To reiterate, first I look at the figures. I\'m much more likely to consider pedigree is first circumstances--1st route, 1st turf, perhaps 1st sprint even or extreme distance switches, 6F to 10F, etc. It seems intuitive to think that unusual distances increase the difficulty of horses pairing or running new tops, but in practice it\'s difficult to gauge and therefore just not that useful to dwell on.      
 

[J-DUB]

Alan,
    Thanks for your perspective.