Elliot Safdie

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Captain Stormfield wrote:

> \"Other than discussions here concerning the circumstances
> surrounding the figure, did anyone hear a controversy regarding
> the number?\"
>
> It\'s possible Safdie is referring to James Quinn\'s timely piece
> in the Derby edition of Horseplayer Magazine.  Quinn touts
> Rockport Harbor(!) as one of only four Derby contenders, and
> then in a sidebar makes the case that Bellamy Road\'s 120 is
> inflated, working off the variant for the two preceeding
> sprints Wood day.  
>
> Quinn says the \"standard\" sprint/route variant ratio is
> three-to-two, that is, a deviation of three lenghts in routes
> for every two lengths in sprints.  He says the sprint variant
> was fast 10, making the Wood variant fast 15.  And so he feels
> confident he can lop off 10 Beyer points from Survivalist\'s 92,
> causing him to run three lengths slower for his second place
> finish in the Wood(G1) than he did in his 2YO maiden win in
> October.

hmmmm Only 3 lengths? What about 6 maybe 8?. TGraph had Survivalist running a 6.1 for that October race. Regressing to nearly a 7 in his first 3YO start. Regression to a 6 in the Wood loses four lengths. Regression to an 8 would be eight lengths. That might seem unreasonable if you believed Survivalist was a two turn horse.

TGraph uses the far more reliable technique of considering the field. That doesn\'t mean its not at times problematic. It doesnt mean they weren\'t right either.
 
> I made that last part up.  Quinn only works off the winner and
> therefore delivers up this nonsense:
>
> \"Although estimating variants can be an arty process, and that
> was surely the situation here, it\'s difficult to imagine how
> the Beyer associates arrived at the lofty 120.  The projection
> technique could not have sufficed to estimate the route
> variant, as no horse in the Wood Memorial had recorded even a
> Beyer Speed Figure of 103, the equivalent Beyer par for the
> race, and Bellamy Road had not run faster than a Beyer 96.  The
> projection technique would have yielded an even faster track
> variant, thereby reducing Bellamy Road\'s speed figure below a
> Beyer 110.\"
>
> Now that I think about it, Quinn\'s logic doesn\'t rise to the
> level of \"controversy.\"  It was your Bellamania posts Safdie
> was referring to, Chuckles.

I wasn\'t implying anyone but the Wonks here read my posts and I\'m generally discounted and that bothers me to no end...lol j/k

I would need more information to try and figure out what Quinn was saying 17 lengths is undoubtedly a lot of Beyer points. Essentially it looks like hes implying the others regressed and they got the variant wrong which essentially was my position.

However, they made they sprint variant an 8 and the route variant a 10, this despite the fact that essentially four track records were set my animals that hadn\'t run track records before. The true variants were much lower in my estimation and each click there is an additional length.



Post Edited (05-11-05 00:09)

CTC,

\"I would need more information to try and figure out what Quinn was saying 17 lengths is undoubtedly a lot of Beyer points. Essentially it looks like hes implying the others regressed and they got the variant wrong which essentially was my position.\"

The pace of the Wood was essentially in line with the final time. By definition, that means the pace was fast for the class because no matter what you assign the race - anything between 110 and 120 is still very fast for the bunch of Grade 3 animals that were chasing Bellamy Road.

IMO, several horses clearly raced close enough to BR to be impacted by that pace. I played Scrappy T in the Withers for that very reason. IMO, he didn\'t regress in the Wood, he was impacted by pace.

In my studies, I have found that when a dominant front runner crushes the opposition (like BR did), it often sets a pace that is  too fast for most of the other participants. That causes them to run slower than they would otherwise run. There is no exact formula for this. IMO, the horses right on, or just off the pace, are usually impacted. However, I often even find many of the closers running subpar races. I \"think\" that\'s because the internal fractions remain fast from start to finish and when they are trying to get into contention they get used up also. That\'s not the same race development as the typical duel where the race collapses in the late middle and allows the closers to get into contention with ease.    

In any event, if you interpret the victory in terms of the margins, you wind up giving an inflated figure to the winner so you can assign figures that make sense to the rest of the field. (I hope that is clear enough).

Beyerguy suggested that the Wood figure was very inflated right after the race.  I was less sure either way because of Survivalist\'s performance. However, I think it is at least worth considering the possibility that he has been right all along.



Post Edited (05-11-05 08:40)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper wrote:

> CTC,
>
> \"I would need more information to try and figure out what Quinn
> was saying 17 lengths is undoubtedly a lot of Beyer points.
> Essentially it looks like hes implying the others regressed and
> they got the variant wrong which essentially was my position.\"
>
> The pace of the Wood was essentially in line with the final
> time.

I really wasn\'t discussing Pace because I dont\' think Pace was really a factor in the Wood. To me the whole issue was track effect and regression. But, when a horse gets it all his own way you get real nice energy expenditure fractional times like we saw in the Wood. Sure it looked good. The conditions were Ideal.

>By definition, that means the pace was fast for the class
> because no matter what you assign the race - anything between
> 110 and 120 is still very fast for the bunch of Grade 3 animals
> that were chasing Bellamy Road.

Agreed a final figure of 110 was probably outside of the ability of Bellamanias Wood competitiors.


> IMO, several horses clearly raced close enough to BR to be
> impacted by that pace. I played Scrappy T in the Withers for
> that very reason.

Like I said, I didn\'t think Pace was a predominant issue in the Wood. Bellamania had it all his own way, as he prefers, and Going Wild was not ready to show up. Going Wild hasn\'t been right, but he did out hustle Bellamania from outside in the Derby. Personally I don\'t believe its because Bellamania rated. Scrappy T was impeded by Bellamania right out of the gate in the Wood and had his saddle slip four marks into the race. I hammered Scrappy in the Withers, but it wasn\'t because I thought he needed the lead or ran his race in the Wood.

Any horse can look good having it all his own way. Sometimes thats on the lead, sometimes its from off a blistering pace.

> In any event, if you interpret the victory in terms of the
> margins, you wind up giving an inflated figure to the winner so
> you can assign figures that make sense to the rest of the
> field.

I agree with the foregoing, if you\'re basing projecting the final figure off another \"need the lead\" type who needs the front end or X\'s.  Scrappy and Survivalist however are not that type of horse.

 
> Beyerguy suggested that the Wood figure was very inflated right
> after the race.  I was less sure either way because of
> Survivalist\'s performance. However, I think it is at least
> worth considering the possibility that he has been right all
> along.

If Bellamania had run from off the pace and exploded late on a card with 3 two turn races there would be no issue. Theres not much of an issue now. We don\'t have to factor Bellamania from here in. Maybe the Travers, where he might be the bet if it looks like he gets a free running chance for the front.

CTC,

\"Like I said, I didn\'t think Pace was a predominant issue in the Wood. Bellamania had it all his own way,\"

The pace was no factor for BR because he was running well within his normal range. However, IMO it was a factor for several of the inferior horses that were trying to keep up with him. A loaf in the park for BR is a speed duel for Scrappy T. :-)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Personally I think it possible that Scrappy could win a match race with Bellamania. I think it likely he can outfoot him if he wants to. Going into the Wood Scrappy had never run any half faster than 46:4 but he was right on Bellamania in .46 and 1.09.4 fractions and that was with a less than ideal start and a slipped saddle.

As far as Bellamania running within his normal range. His normal range may be fast enough to get the lead on whatever speed the surface hes running on is. Sometimes he gets the lead in .46 on a blistering track. Sometimes he runs a .46 and doesnt get the lead and may in fact be running harder while in arrears. Scrappy and Survivalist did not lose the Wood because they were outpaced. They lost to a good horse loose on a wicked surface they were not right  for the race.

[jimbo66]

CtC,

If you really believe that Scrappy would win a match race with Bellamy Road, you should be taking out a second mortgage on your house to bet the Preakness, because loading up on Scrappy at the 30-1 he might be, could be a windfall for you.

Scrappy would be 8-1 against Bellamy in a match race.......  And not playable at that price...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Thats debatable.

Lets say the Match race is 8.5 marks at Monmouth Park and Scrappy breaks inside. My belief is Bellamania is a head case and ran on the best part of the Track Derby day. He\'s got a nice long gawky stride when left alone. He  is 17 hands. Not left alone its another matter. The Derby was not a bad effort, but I do believe he ran the golden path.

[JJP]

While I\'m not in the \"bias doesn\'t exist\" camp, I don\'t believe there\'s enough evidence to conclude that it was an outside track at CD on Saturday.  A number of horses won with basically 2 path trips and Wildcat Shoes went :43 4/5 on the rail and still won.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The Chart says Wildcat was in the 3 path:

Wildcat Shoes: pace,3path, gamely, under pressure,held sway

TGraph calls it 2wide.

Whats really interesting is that he was on the lead and chose to run in that path though having the rail option. Incidentally he ran rail type trips in his two prior races.

They were definitely staying clear of the rail. The rest of it is evidence upon swings and visual interpretation.

Wide was good. That and bounce cost Alex the Derby.

[JJP]

Well the chart is wrong.  If he was in the two path I wouldn\'t draw any conclusion that its an outside track.  I would consider a 2 path track to be neutral.