80% of Spring time 3yr olds regress

[miff]

TGJB,

Last week you came out roaring(and condescending) when I suggested that you had the Blue Grass way too fast.You wise cracked that \"sure it\'s very likely that 6 out of seven 3yr spring three olds didn\'t pair in spring\"The BG, over time will prove way off as I suspected.

The real question is how did app 80% of the 3yr spring crop regress yesterday.Please don\'t waste your time with bounce or detention barns or hot pace(CA was fairly close all the way and survived), I\'d prefer no explanation at all.

How about the Wood and BG figs were too fast and horses aint gettin faster.

[jimbo66]

I am not piling on Jerry and don\'t necessarily agree with all of Miff\'s comments, but there are several things about the Derby yesterday that are not explainable.

You, as well as Beyer and Ragozin all \"dissed\" the California horses this year, saying they were slower than everybody else and all the other circuits.  The California races were the only ones where you didn\'t assign \"super high\" figs to.  (For the record, I was completely in agreement with this after watching those races and thus am not pointing the finger, just discussing a point).  The California horses filled out 4 of the top 6 slots in the Derby yesterday.  

High Limit had one of the best looking T-Graph patterns in this race and was your \"value of the race\".  A lot of posters on this board (myself included), thought he had no shot,  based on other factors like pace and seasoning.  He ran last.

T-Graph continues to espouse \"well rested\" horses in the Derby with light campaigns.  Bellamy Road had 2 preps, finished 7th, High Limit had 2 preps, finished last.  Giacomo had a 2 year old foundation, 3 preps, wins the race.  Afleet Alex had the best 2 year old foundation, 3 preps, comes in a close 3rd.  Five weeks rest for High Fly and Noble Causeway, both with pretty nice T-Graph figures and pattersn, nowhere at the finish.  

I think that a lot of what happened in this year\'s race points to the fact that traditional \"T-Graph\" tenents and principles don\'t hold up well in the Derby.  It is a race unlike any other and should be handicapped as such.  

That said, I could have handicapped a year and a half and not had this race right.....

[BitPlayer]

miff -

I\'m sure TGJB can defend himself, but I\'ll point out that yesterday\'s backward moves by a large percentage of the field aren\'t surprising if you\'ve been reading this board.  The stats Derby 1592 posted a couple of weeks ago showed that 90% of the horses who had run big new tops in their last prep went on to run \"Off\" or \"X\" races in the Derby.  For all other horses, the percentage was still 65%.

Also, if you downgrade the Blue Grass, you have to downgrade Closing Argument.

[dlf]

Jimbo, how about this for an explanation:

California, I believe, began doing the new and improved drug-testing before any of the other racing jurisdictions (i.e NYRA got a late start at AQU, and is only going full steam ahead with detention barns, etc. with the start of the Belmont meet. Florida and Louisiana didn\'t change a thing, as far as I know.)

In other words, California has been \"clean\" for most of the year, and because of it, the horses were running slower numbers. On the other hand the Florida, Louisiana and New York runners were not getting tested, their trainers knew it, and juiced them. So quite naturally, uh, should I say unnaturally, these horses ran higher figures than their West Coast counterparts.

Then we arrive at the Kentucky Derby with a level playing field. The West Coast horses run to their ability, and all the others crash and burn when their drugs are taken away.  I know this sounds damn conspiratorial, but it seems plausible. It certainly explains how all the speed figure gurus could have been so \"wrong\".

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The results are just as logical upon Bounce and Pace.

The fact is the East Coast horses all threw tops last Prep. Bobby Frankel said it was an issue and it appears he was right. The Derby1592 and Mall team played the bounce. Sounds like TGJB played the Bounce. They weren\'t factoring the supertest. It was a Bounce and Pace result. They ran way too fast early. Bellmania and CA are pretty good horses to finish like they did.

By the way Pletchers horse didn\'t bounce in the Three Chimney\'s



Post Edited (05-08-05 11:12)

[davidrex]

     Actually there was quite a bit of traditional sheet play involved in the outcome.

     It was assumed by many that this year we could handicap by giving the trainers preference over the lines....horses being touted that either never advanced or had no bottom.flower alley...andromeda...going wild...high fly...high limit{frankel hoss comes out running and maintains its #}...wilko.

     horses that peaked too soon and /or lacked a bottom....greelys...bandini...bellamy...noble

     sun king had the signature 0-x-2 and won\'t be a bet for up to 2 months



     Buzzards bay was the only line you might be aligned against because of the new age trainer syndrome.But his line is a winning one albeit a tad slow.

     closing arg. & afleet a. were the traditional line that sheet players wager on.

     Giacomo was blessed the first Sat. in May...the only piece of the puzzle that makes this game so damn frustrating.

     A personal thanx to Jimbo66 for reminding me that the day offered many betting possibilities....helped me get over the dejection of a/a being bet exactly as everyone pointed out to me.

             PARTYpokerON!

[miff]

Bit,

You forget BG runners Bandini(19th) High Limit(20th)regressed bad in the BG, but paired somehow and Sun King 15th(empty in the BG but moved forward)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That Bluegrass was a good race. The finishing positions in the Derby for High Limit and Bandini have nothing to do with the quality of their previous race. The Derby was a meltdown for them. The issue is why? Bandini has bounce and washout to explain it.

For Frankel its perplexing. Maybe he didn\'t like the track or got hurt. who knows.

Sun king finished even with Closing A. who almost won the Derby. Closing prolly needed a race in the bluegrass and was down inside early where it wasnt good.

Sun King just hasn\'t looked effective in any race at two turns now and sometimes you gotta read the writing on the wall.



Post Edited (05-08-05 11:35)

[miff]

CtC,

I\'m not questioning the BG as a race. The figs awarded to several runners were out of whack with racing reality, starting with Bandini and including Sun King and High Limit.

The derby results prove nothing I agree, except maybe that HL did not pair in the BG and SK did not move forward.Any long time sheet player who did NOT have SK cycling forward yesterday (not win but run well) must be reading different figs than I.

Both performances yesterday (SK and HL) lead me to believe the BG figs were too fast and misleading at best.Bandini washed out, was too soon back and regressed, not unexpected.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff wrote:

> CtC,
>
> I\'m not questioning the BG as a race. The figs awarded to
> several runners were out of whack with racing reality, starting
> with Bandini and including Sun King and High Limit.

There were two monumentally tough races to figure coming into this Derby: The Bluegrass and Wood. It will be some time before we can confirm those races (If ever).

My evolving perception was High Limit indeed did run a 1 in the Bluegrass and maybe a better 1 than at first appeared. He chased a burner of a speed horse. He got near the rail late and he jumped tracks. He almost went down at one point. The question was whether he could get to the lead or rate. No Classic horse is gonna outfoot Spanish Chestnut. That horse is a monster and should be pointed to the Met Mile, but prolly needs a break. Bandini on aided bias was probably not that much better than High Limit and Sun King on aided bias was probably not that close to Closing Argument. Bandini\'s top to me was not a 7 point top. It was a 5 point top. Still it was too much.

Bellamania ran a good Derby all things considered. Does that confirm the Negative 5 wood?  Maybe, but maybe it also indicates the Wood didn\'t take as much out of him as Bandini\'s Bluegrass because the Wood wasnt as large a top. He certainly regressed. The question is did he regress on bounce or on pace?

Sun King is looking shaky around the second turn if you discount the Bluegrass a couple points on aiding bias is his Derby finish at 10 marks that difficult to digest?

This could all be wrong. My wagers didn\'t come close to that Derby. Giacomo, Closing and Buzzard were all gonna beat my tickets out if they finished anywhere but 4th. Fantastic for review, never seen a race like that before.

[miff]

From a betting angle, I will throw out the Derby for many runners. What is the most difficult thing to figure is why:

Sun King
Nobel Causeway
Greater Good
Flower Alley
And Hero
GG
Wilco
Coin Silver

All off the pace closers, did not make any run late into a harness like 53.1 final half.All healthy 3yr spring olds and no pairs. How come? It wasn\'t possible in the BG, so why is it now possible in the DERBY.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff wrote:

> All off the pace closers, did not make any run late into a
> harness like 53.1 final half.All healthy 3yr spring olds and no
> pairs. How come? It wasn\'t possible in the BG, so why is it now
> possible in the DERBY.

Bit of an enigma. Speculative reasons proposed:

> Sun King - Distance Limitation
> Nobel Causeway - Distance Limitation
> Greater Good - Cycling poorly, head case, washed out again
> Flower Alley - Distance limitation
> And Hero - too slow to close into that wicked pace. A non factor from here in

> GG - Bounce
> Wilco - Distance limitation, hoof issues, still off form
> Coin Silver - Wet Track Specialist/Bounce

If Bandini is healthy he is going to win big races down this road.

It was just the mother of all odd results.

[bloodline bob]

It\'s correct to point out that everyone of them had strikes against them going in:

1)The hot pace that fried the leaders was predictable and predicted.  It happens more often than not in this race.
2)The lack of seasoning for many was widely understood (except by TGJB. I think its clear that the TGJB theory that everything has changed and the trainers somehow train different now is just plain wrong).
3)Many were doubtful to get the trip on pedigree.

So what happened? It all came true. Twenty horses were asked the question turning for home and for the above reasons NONE of them had an answer.

Somebocdy had to win.

And please it had nothing to do with drugs.