This year like I said in my 5/5 post all the horses everyone liked had the pre-derby jump up pattern which historically has not worked. Of all the negative #\'s I liked AA the best because his previous race before the jump up was a toss due to being sick.

We were all a victim of pace and the pre-derby jump up pattern!

If you read American Turf Monthly they have a grid on historical derby traits. Interesting fact was all derby winners have that prior prep coming home the last quarter in under 25.1. Take a look -  Giacamo was one of the few who had that last quarter in under 25.1!

CTC - Does the California #\'s have to be revised? Were they too slow?

Chuckles_the_Clown2: I\'m not competent to discuss California numbers. Thats a question for TGraph. Hossgnats friend addressed that issue with some acumen in my opinion. When 3YO\'s are really improving, rain washed them out in California and that certainly could be a factor in all this, however, that Derby appeared to be slow.

The Preakness and Belmont will shed more lite on the running of that Derby.

miff: I checked 4 solid fig sources(beside TG) and they ALL had the California races in line with TG\'s figs.Could they all be wrong? Anything is possibe, but not very likely.