Even More Evidence?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Rafael Bejarano, who rode Scrappy T in the Wood, said the saddle slipped on him down the backside.

\"Rafael told me at the five-eighths pole the saddle got to wobbling and he couldn\'t ride him,\'\' Bailes said. \"Instead of 18 lengths maybe we would\'ve got beat 10 or 11 lengths, who knows? I believe it cost us second. By no means were we going to beat the winner.\'\'

http://www.drf.com/news/article/64492.html

hmmmm Scrappy stopped like he was heart shot? 8 lengths instead of 18? Thats four points on TGraph......thats what i\'ve been saying. Four to five points too many for Bellamy. It was a a field collapse on the most wicked of surfaces by that point on the card. Thats right, the 50% Grade 1 pair for three year olds was out the window in the Wood. Oh well, I\'ve tried to tell you. You\'re on your own.

I know what it is...you all are basing this superhorse theory on the Hallandale race and the way he handled Cherokee Chase and Captain Lindsay.



Post Edited (04-28-05 11:55)

[TGJB]

CTC-- okay, that\'s twice. What \"superhorse theory\", and whose theory is it?

[gvido]

A delusion in his mind only.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry, I\'ll concede you haven\'t called him a superhorse.

It was gvido. I\'m just trying to help him. I want him to cash this year. It will make him happy.

To win the Derby, you have to get involved. You have to take stands against hyped animals like Holy Bull and Arazi and I guess even Easy Goer. I think the horse coming in with all the hype this year is Bellamy. Zito is even singing some Bellamy praise songs now. Even your numbers add to the hype. Lets be candid, you have him scored as the fastest three year old ever! My god, he\'s right there with Ghostsprinter and Saint Elmo\'s Fire. Beyer has annoited him \"head and withers\" above the rest. Crist has sung odes to him. Haskin is riding the fence: \"He may be the second coming. He may not\". I guess I was doing a Haskin with a contemplated saver. I\'m moving against that now for a number of reasons. We\'ll have to view the odds they set, but beating him seems to be the smart play, both value and handicapping wise.

DRF readers are favoring Afleet Alex by a very narrow margin, so its possible Bellamy wont be as dominant a wagering factor as I thought he would. Theres gonna be a lot of sheets exotic money hooked up on him though and beating him out of the money is where its at. I\'m hyping that result.

[TGJB]

CTC-- I know a little bit about how to beat the Derby, and since at least 92 or so my opinions have been a matter of public record before the fact. You did go on record before the race last year and hit it, but it should be noted that the horse you liked was the favorite, which kind of works against your \"overhyped\" theory.

Look, your handicapping posts are fine, but go easy on the self indulgent stuff, and especially the intentionally annoying stuff. Again, the only one who gets to act like a baby around here is me.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol...ok I\'m just getting my game face on is all.

I did take your fig horse last year. I do know your pattern reads. I watched your video enough to wear it out.

FYI I did not consider Smarty\'s O-2-X possibility as very probable. He had only moved 3.3 points off his two year old top. He had a solid foundation and he caught a wet track on his two point regression> I attributed the slight regression as much to the track as a form issue. His subsequent same wet track effort in the Derby and return to top in the Preakness tended to validate that view in my eyes.

I\'m scared of your \"Killer B\'s\" this year, but despite their trainers, I\'m taking a stand against them. (Still deliberating Bandini) If you\'re right about Bandini how can he not crash and burn? If you\'re right about Bellamy isn\'t he in a tough spot? This is the tough stuff.