Saturday Beyers

[BitPlayer]

According to the online DRF, Afleet Alex got a 108, and Bandini got a 103.

[Silver Charm]

Bellamy Roads 120 looks a little imposing doesn\'t it.

[MO]

Maybe  its just me but it seems tro me everytime a Zito trained horse runs a big number like Bellamy Road did, he bounces to the moon next time out. Sun King. Birdstone. The Cliffs Edge are 3 that come to mind.



Post Edited (04-18-05 08:10)

[SoCalMan2]

Interesting theory, MO, but wouldn\'t that have applied to Bellamy Road in the Wood? I mean hadn\'t he already run a big jump up top going into the Wood?  Maybe my recollection is off.

[MO]

I don\'t have his TG figs. But I had heard he ran a neg 4 in Wood? Please correct me if I am wrong. Based on Beyers his wood was a huge jump.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB said he was not releasing Bellamy\'s Wood number because he wanted to retain material for the Derby/Oaks presentation. I wouldn\'t release numbers if I was him either. It\'s a business. He\'s hinted at negative 4 or thereabouts though, which is good enough for strategy purposes. Negative 3, Negative 5 until Afleet Alex\'s race it didn\'t really matter on pure speed. Bellamy was clearly tops, but suddenly, at least to me, it appears to be an issue. A Beyer of 120 is huge too though. I know Easy Goer and Sunday Silence earned similar Beyers and at the time I\'m certain Their TFigs were not Negative 4. I agree with TGJB though, horses have gotten faster and there is a disconnect with previous comparisons between Beyers and TFigs.

Beyer doesnt win his bets on the Kentucky Derby though so its pretty clear where you defer. This is a tough one. Even if Bellamy ran a legitimate negative 4 theres a lot of factors to consider in the next race.

Bellamy Road is owned by George Steinbrenner, the tyrannical owner of the New York Yankees. The Yankees are having a horrible start to their baseball season. My inclination is to go with Bellamy Road as the Yankees go. George has issued a pep talk ultimatum to the team. If George can inspire them to over .500 ball by May 7th go with Bellamy Road...If he can\'t encourage them past that .500 mark on Derby Day play against George and his bad Karma.

I see the bad moon arising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin'.
I see bad times in May.

Don't go to the lead, that's right,
Well, it's bound to be a fight,
There's a bad moon on the rise.

I hear hurricanes ablowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers over flowing.
I hear the hooves of rage and ruin.

Don't go to the lead, that's right,
Well, it's bound to take your life,
There's a bad moon on the rise.

Hope you got your things together.
Hope you are quite prepared to fly.
Looks like you're in for nasty weather.
One eye is taken for an eye.

[SoCalMan2]

I haven\'t seen Bellamy Road\'s sheet since the day of the Wood.  According to hearsay on this site, he ran a -4 in the Wood.  What I am saying is that in the allowance race he won in Florida before shipping up for the Wood, I thought he ran a zero and that zero was a big new top for him.  Then if you look at him and Sun King (two 3 y.o.s that ran zero as their debut fig for Zito), one bounced 5 points and the other jumped up to a new top by 4 points.  I could really be wrong here as I am doing it from memory and based on hearsay from the site.  If I am right, though, then Bellamy Road should have figured to bounce in the Wood and throw in a clunker under your theory.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

MO wrote

>I don\'t have his TG figs. But I had heard >he ran a neg 4 in Wood? Please correct me >if I am wrong. Based on Beyers his wood >was a huge jump.

Bellamy per Beyer:

120
96
___
72
82
81

Two consecutive 24 point forward moves. 38 points of improvement from his 2yr old top.

Per TGraph:

-4
-0.1
______

11
5.2
5.2

forward moves of 5.3 and 3.3 points from his 2 yr old top. for a total progression of approx. 9.2 points, provided TGraph assigned a Neg. 4 for the Wood and you accept that figure.

I just hope he makes the field. No off white blood count, stress fracture or blood clot in his neck. Let him get in.