In Memory of Tug McGraw

[richiebee]

Tug McGraw was once asked if he pitched better on Astroturf or natural grass. His reply: \"I dont know, I never smoked astroturf\"

Now to a different type of grass: Blue

Mr. Sword:(20) J. Ped 1/25 last 30 days at NYRA. J. Ped 0/22 graded stakes. J. Ped worked this horse too fast. Rizzi says 7f to me, I don\'t care what sire stats say. In MS\'s last win, he beat 3 overmatched foes; the second place finisher had been claimed for 20K as a 2Y0. IMO, a likely last place finisher, and if you like him you get lousy value w/ JD riding.

Clos Arg: (10) KMac\'s \"last race 30-89 days stats\" both run based and figure based, are excellent. (WHY NO 60- 90 BREAKDOWN?) KMac\'s strike rate in graded stakes is 19%. If you look at the spacing of this colt\'s races, its been 66 days since the FOY, and there was a 63 day spacing between the Delta race and the FOY. Beyer seemed to see significant advancement in the FOY, TG did not. In the FOY he beat KC Boy, who is headed for a career on the turf, and High Fly, who is headed to Louisville. His breeding whispers to me that he will get 9f but will not be hard to pull up thereafter.

Spanish Chestnut:(30) dam\'s name is Baby Rabbit, which about says it all.

Consolidator:(4) His last race was dominant, and assuming soundness, he can match that effort number or fig wise. His 3 best races have been his 3 two turn efforts, including his 1- 1/16th win at Kee as a 2Y0. He does not need the lead, has worked well and Lukas\'s ego (someone else posted this), his football mentality, dictates that he will go all out for victory here and worry about winning the Derby after this race. To me the most likely winner and bettable at 4/1 or above. If he wins the BG, he was fully cranked and evaluate his Derby chances accordingly.

High Limit:(2) Its sometimes hard to make friends by agreeing with CTC, but I think Frankel is a poor poker player. This colt has never been behind a single horse at any stage in any of his 3 races, and if he breaks clean and sharp Ding Ding Dominquez will not put a hammerlock on him. As fast as Consolidator, and I think Consolidator will be kept between 1-2 lengths of HL at all times. When was the last time a colt won the Derby with only 4 previous lifetime starts?

Sun King:(2) NZ\'s instructions to Prado: Keep him wide, finish well, see you in Louisville. No pressure on him for this race. NZ may have cost himself the BC Juvie with this one by not having run him in a 2 turn prep.

Bandini:(6) Again, Beyer impressed, TG not, in the FOY? Both DRF and TG had this colt 3w, and now he\'s in the outside stall. Most concerning to me was interview with Johnny V after FOY.. he said Bandini was \"studdish\". Would have too see his paddock demeanor before betting. Wide post, soundness issues (no works between 3/20 and 4/5)may limit him to an exacta finish at best.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I like the analysis richie.

ty

[Saddlecloth]

so am i seeing a pick for high limit there?

[twoshoes]

My take short and sweet. I agree with Richie about Sun King - this is a tough spot and I think at this point Zito would be happy to see him running at them late and hope it sets him up three weeks from now. With that in mind it\'s Consolidator at 3-1 or better and a box with High Limit. Exciting huh? In Arkansas, I know you are supposed to beat Greater Good in this spot but I\'m far more negative on Afleet Alex. I think Greater Good is sitting on a 2 to 3 point move and I\'ll key him in exotics with Rush Bay (I like this line) and try to get Alex to run out.

Good luck to all.

[richiebee]

Saddlecloth:

 My projection is that HL has a short (less than 1 length) lead on Consolidator at the 1/4 pole. If he kicks on depends on how fast he ran to get there and how the track is playing.

 In deference to other posters on this board, HL\'s chances would also seem to be enhanced if Cajun Beat ran a big race in the Commonwealth and if Frankel\'s turf to dirt maiden in the 2nd race has run well. That is the famous UNDERCARD theory, which says that HL\'s chances are greater if Frankel\'s horses have been running well ALLDAY.

[Bally Ache]

Consolidator

If Mr. Sword is decent odds maybe use him in an exacta with above.