Some Preakness Ramblings...

[derby1592]

Residual effects: I wonder why Frankel insists on waiting until Saturday morning to ship to the Preakness???...

Chemistry 101: Take a look at the sheets for Proud Citizen and Table Limit in the Preakness and for Sehed Jehan in the sixth race on the same day at Pimlico. It looks like Wayne must have taken the same chemistry class that Bobby took last spring...

Bouncing hares: One thing I am learning from the computer is that young, lightly-raced horses that run ugly new tops tend to pair them up or run a decent race next time out more often than you might think. Add to that the Lukas/TC factor: he often gets pair-ups off jumps with young 3yos - two that come to mind are Charismatic (Lex and Derby) and Thunder Gulch (FOY and Fla Derby). Also, throw in the recent forward leap taken by the entire Lukas stable and that the \"unheralded\" half of a Lukas entry has surprised more than once in a big race. Finally, factor in that the horse is very lightly raced and really had not established any sort of \"level\" before the big jump and you might want to think twice before completely tossing Table Limit at long odds despite the obvious negatives. He may be a rabbit for Proud Citizen but he is owned separately, cost $500,000 and will be ridden by Gary Stevens. This rabbit might just forget to stop and take a nap before he reaches finish line...

Stalk and pounce: Harlan's Holiday\'s best performances have come in races with very fast paces up front. He seems to like to stalk a fast pace and then take control of a race with a big middle move. The Preakness may offer a perfect pace scenario for him. The big question is can he take advantage of it despite all his previous big efforts in the spring.

Post Toasties: Once again, I have to question some of the Preakness post-position selections. If you look at the BRIS stats for Pimlico dirt routes, you see that the rail had an impact value of 1.23 and that 18% of the last 132 races were won from the rail. The inside 3 posts have an IV of 1.09 and while horses starting from posts 8 and beyond have won only 3% of the time with a measly IV of only 0.52. Add to that, my research that clearly shows the linkage between ground loss and post-position and you have to wonder what these guys have been smoking...

Chaos rules: Given the \"tactical\" (I am being kind here) post position draw and the speed-filled field, the Preakness pace/race dynamic looks very volatile and unpredictable. A couple of trainers with front-runners, chose inside posts (Straight Gin and Medaglio D\'Oro), which would seem to imply that they intend to go for the rail and possibly the lead. Baffert chose an outside post to try and force the other speed to either choose an inside post (which they always seem to loath) or stay outside and risk going wide. The other trainers all decided to play chicken, which seems to indicate that they want to be forwardly placed but would prefer to press the pace rather than set it. I would expect Espinoza to stay well out on the track going into the first turn hoping to force some of the speed horses to go wide on the tight clubhouse turn. If this happens, many of the trainers plans may quickly evaporate as riders have to make split-second decisions without any good options: 1- stay where they are (and get fanned wide), 2- gun their horse to the lead to try and save some ground (and also use precious energy reserves and possibly get caught in a speed duel), 3- take back and try to drop in to save some ground and to avoid getting caught up in a fast pace (and also risk taking their horse out of its normal running style, which often backfires). Also, there are very few horses entered in the Preakness that come from far behind so it could get pretty crowded on the first turn. The bottom line is that just about anything could happen and luck may play a big part in the outcome of this race, particularly if the weather also comes into play. Let\'s see: a butterfly flaps its wings in South America and then migrates north all the way up to Baltimore and just happens to get stuck in Victor Espinoza\'s goggles a moment after the starting gates open in the Preakness...

Woody\'s Ghost: I remember the year Winning Colors \"stole\" the Derby and how Woody Stevens then had Pat Day ride her into the ground in the Preakness by sacraficing his own horse - 49er. Day on 49er, forced the issue from the start and also bumped her several times and forced her very wide on the first turn in order to exact his revenge. I thought Gary Stevens was going to kill someone after that race. I have never seen him so hot. Do you think that Woody\'s spirit may be whispering into someone ear right now? Maybe a friend of Barry Irwin\'s? Perhaps the rider on one of those horse\'s parked just outside of War Emblem will get some special instructions before the race...

Lucky misfortune: Do you remember how your mother used to always tell you \"it just might turn out to have been the best thing that could have happened\" whenever anything bad happened to you? Well Jerry Hollendorfer\'s mother may be telling him that right now and she may actually be right. First, he wanted to run his horse in the Derby but was shutout while sitting on the earnings \"bubble.\" Then he got \"stuck\" with the second-to-last choice in the post-position draw and had to choose the \"lousy\" rail. Because of all that \"bad\" luck, he now comes into the Preakness with a fresh horse in a perfect position to sit back off a fast pace and save ground while many of the other less rested contenders go wide and/or get burned up by a hot pace. \"Jerry, you never know, it just might turn out to have been the best thing that could have happened to you...\"

Keeping in mind a quote from Alfred Hitchcock, I should probably end these ramblings now.

\"The length of a film should be directly related to the endurance of the human bladder.\"

Good luck to all.

Chris

[MO]

Well done!

Mo