Five Weeks Rest

[davidrex]

     some time ago a rookie inquired about tg symbols.many good answers followed,but one item stuck in my throat.
     many moons ago i had the opportunity to compare both products by simply picking them up on weekends and transporting them to pimlico.
     all kinds of comparisons were thought up [not by me!] but the one symbol that made me a true believer was the \"x\" that browns inserted in a very limited fashion.
     uncanny how strong that x was[is]and with that in hand so many other intangibles could be combined w/either faith in the product or faith in the man being such a stickler for detail
     no i wouldnt want brown to marry my daughter,but a good defense lawyer?!!!
           PARTYpokerON

dividrex,

\"lets make a conserted effort to enlighten the conversation rather than needlessly attack one another\"

I am all for enlightenment and never attack anyone if I disagree with them (even in the face of constant attack on me).

I just disagree. Say what I think, and explain why.

If you really want a broader and balanced discussion, we need to move it somewhere else. As much as I believe that most of what I have to say is very complementary to using JB\'s product effectively, it\'s his forum and he obviously doesn\'t appreciate me here or want ideas outside his narrow framework discussed here as a primary topic.

Personally, I don\'t get it. People are obviously interested. Articles in the DRF refer to these issues daily and virtually all the popular handicapping books have chapters on this stuff or are fully devoted to them. I would think a discussion of how to incorporate high quality speed figures into more standard handicapping ideas would be an attractive way to bring more players into the fold.

I\'ll be on CJ\'s new board if you are looking for me.



Post Edited (04-04-05 19:49)

[TGJB]

David, I agree your daughter should marry a good defense lawyer.

I\'m trying not to get upset about your getting a free look at the sheets in Maryland, and wondering how many others did (do).

Nice casting.

[davidrex]

    you lie down w/ cookie...you wake up w/crumbs  
    never bothered to send any to pim. and i swear if i arived at laurel when track opened...he was always sold out by one annonymus player who bought ten sets at a time.claimed your guys only sent him the dreg trax.
     Yes i called and was told that cookie wasnt sending much back but unsold data.

             cookie monster

      PARTYpokerON

[davidrex]

    jerry,
didnt mean that my daughter should marry good defense lawyer....rather IF i was ever in need of one,someone of your ilk would be perfect.
A REAL pit bull that hates to lose....and after your last blurb i just may need one....wish my daughter had married
the pushy attorney


         PARTYpokerON

[TGJB]

David-- I knew what you meant.

[Silver Charm]

Please let me re-post this so people do not get confused with this Board being a Pace Figures Board or another version of Ann Landers.

Lots will be discussed over the next Five Weeks about horses coming into the Derby off a slightly longer than normal layoff. Can they still win the race??

Being someone who was somewhat of a skeptic regarding High Fly I have to say after yesterday he may in the drivers seat. He will be very rested, fresh off the five weeks and has already run a mile once and a mile and an eighth THREE TIMES. Nobody else will go into Derby with that kind of bottom.

His solid tactical speed will put him wherever he wants to sit and the extra time going in gives the trainer the opportunity to do whatever he wants with him. Speed drills, stamina drills, light work, heavy work you name it.

I am not saying this is my selection but High Fly has already done what the others have yet to do. And yet when those others do it one week from now, experts will try and tell you they can win the Derby but High Fly can not.

Believe what you want.

[NoCarolinaTony]

SC,

All those positives you mention can be compromised if he leaves from posts 1 or 18-20 (Jerry Bailey included).  What about High Limit and his speed? Will be an interesting race for sure. This weekend will clear the picture up a little more.

Still think the closing filly has to be considered the way the race sets up.

What a great Game this is turing out to be.

Go Carolina.!!

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

We did it!!!

Nothing could be finer than to be in Carolina...In my mind IM going to CarolinaCarolina on my mind ....et al

Now for a winning weekend at Keeneland!!!!

Anyone else going?

NC Tony

[Silver Charm]

Tony it was a great game and it was your year. Good for Roy.

Bailey will be riding this horse Derby Day, post 1 or 20. He has nothing better and will not between now and then. Zito will have his work cut out for himself, keeping this horse sharp but he has done it before.

By no means am I saying that High Fly is my Derby Day selection. But anyone who tells you he can\'t win because he comes in off five weeks rest is to be ignored.

The last time a trainer came into the Derby (long ways to go still) with this strong of a hand was when D Wayne Lukas ran FIVE HORSES. The local newspaper ran a front  page Derby Day story calling him crazy, obsessed with the race and bad for the Derby. Three of the five became Grade One winners at a Mile and Quarter or longer (Derby, Belmont and Strub)another won the Met Mile as a 3YO (was used to siphon Unbridled Song along Derby Day)and the fifth ran third in the Derby.

Lukas never got an apology. Zito deserves better when he shows up.

Lets hope he gets it.

[NoCarolinaTony]

SC

I love Zito. I had Birdstone on Belmont and Travers day. (Dummy me ad Smarty on top in Supers only but was all over the exacta box that day and tri) Was all over him at Keeneland last year with Cliffs Edge (lost in Fla Derby would have scored big if he was second in that one). Had tapit-CE- Smarty National Pic 3 last year for 395 for $20 straight, so Im a Zito Guy. (Zito on the undercard Belmont day last year). I think more highly of this horse than before and do not think 5 weeks compromises this horse at all,especially with more than one 9F races underneath him. He will have to concern himself with Post position draw and with Consolidator,High Limit Pace (BBB if he even tries the derby). He will have Bailey - the best Jockey to position and rate a  horse, a great trainer in Zito.

None the less, I bet Sweet Catomine in the Derby Futures. I am anxiously watching this weekends races to see if she really belongs or not. I based my selection on what I saw as extroidanary strong and powerful moves, good TG Figs, and up till pool 1 a weak 3 yo male crop. High Fly and High Limit seem to both be more than capable as well at this point. I like her style for this years field so far. This weekend will clear the picture quite a bit. JB even says you really should wait till May to formulate final decision due to preps and post position(ie ground loss potential). Nows the time to pair down the contenders from the pretenders.

One last thing- Isn\'t it Ironic that both major male contenders have the word HIGH in the name in a year of drug scandals, shakes et al. Probably just a strange coincedence.

NC Tony

[HP]

Beyerguy wrote,

\"She didn\'t go two turns again until Saratoga, where she went 107 pace, 109 final. Faster pace = slower race. Yes, she was wider, but that also means she was running a faster early than that 107 gives credit for.\"

\"So, we have:

103-116 (TG -1.5)
107-109 (TG -1.5)
113-96 (TG 2 hot pace designation)
98-100 (TG -1.5)\"

So on TG, she wasn\'t faster!  She paired.  You are using other figures to demonstrate your point, since the TG figures...demonstrate otherwise.

You wrote,

what I said is...\"not appropriate because it does not deal with TG numbers.\"

That would apply to 99% of what YOU post.  You haven\'t proved anything, except that you can selectively look at data to make your point and leave out the stuff that doesn\'t, like TG!

HP

[beyerguy]

OK, lets keep it on TG terms.  When she went too fast at Saratoga, she ran much slower, a 2.  Thus, when she runs slower early, she finishes in faster time.

TG designates this with a h_pace rating, which is great.  They obviously believe extreme paces can affect final time.  TG chooses not to measure this factor.  That is fine too.  It doesn\'t mean it can\'t be done.  

There is a range where the final time will stay pretty consistent, and it is not a small range either.  But, once you get outside that range, on either side, the final time is going to slow down.  If the horses go too fast early, they will decelerate at a much higher rate late.  If they go way too slow early, they can\'t possibly run fast enough at the end to compensate.  This is very common in turf routes as I\'m sure TG has discovered, but it does occasionally happen on dirt as well.