Gotham Preview

[Kasept]

(Sure glad Kansas City Boy isn\'t running in this...)

ANOTHER \'BIG THREE\' MAKE GOTHAM GRAND

The 53rd Gr. III Gotham is scheduled for Saturday afternoon on
Aqueduct\'s main track, and represents an important test for three
colts with serious intentions on the Derby Trail. Galloping Grocer,
Naughty New Yorker and Survivalist will be the favorites in the one
turn mile feature, and each have their own reasons for needing a big
performance.

Galloping Grocer struggled under Aaron Gryder in the Whirlaway,
contesting red hot fractions before fading in the final strides to
finish fourth behind Sort It Out, New Yorker and Scrappy T. Trainer
Dominic Schettino tabbed Mike Luzzi for Saturday\'s assignment, and
his NY-bred son of A.P. Jet must re-establish his classic
credentials in this event.

Naughty New Yorker makes his graded stakes debut in the Gotham, and
trainer Pat Kelly\'s Quiet American bay has been growing steadily as
son\'s of the Raise A Naive line sire typically will. While the late
runner is best suited beyond Saturday\'s eight panels, it\'s likely
that regular pilot Jean-Luc Samyn will be instructed to get his
charge involved \"in time\" in this spot to bank some graded stakes
earnings.

Shug McGaughey has vacated Gulfstream with several of his string,
and Phipps Family homebred Survivalist appears ready for a big
effort back in New York. McGaughey has had a difficult winter in the
Sunshine State, but his Danzig colt ran a solid second to Sun King
last out and needs another forward move here to register some dap on
the Derby-Meter.

The Gotham has been a sophomore tradition for decades, but has only
been part of a successful Derby campaign when visited by Secretariat
in 1973. But classic winners Native Dancer (1953), Easy Goer (1989)
and Red Bullet (2000) also won this on the way to their respective
Triple Crown event glories. More often than not, the Gotham has
been swiped by sprinter-miler types, with Saratoga County (2004),
Mayakovsky (2002), Smokin Mel (1997) Gone West (1987), Cormorant
(1977) and even Dr. Fager (1967) finding the Big A winner\'s circle
on Gotham Day.

The 53rd GOTHAM, Gr. III, $150,000, 1 mile, AQU 9th

1.) DISTINCTIVE TRICK (St. Lewis/Santana) 120/30-1: Regular check
earner was no match for Diamond Wildcat in the Horatio (LRL), but
wired the Caposella (22-1) before that. Stretches out past 6f for
the 2nd time, but was waxed by the top pair in the Sleepy Hollow
(5th) last time this trip. Strictly part of the early pace.

2.) MR. CONGENIALITY (Hushion/Bridgmohan) 116/30-1: Chester House
gelding owned by former NYRA boss Schwartz has three race record
more appealing than it looks. Was 8th and 5th when impossibly
berthed in pair of GP grass ALW\'s Jan/Feb, on heels of first out
sprint score 12/18. Savvy conditioner clicks 29%W (58% ITM) with
turf to dirt moves and wouldn\'t be surprised to see this one give
jolt to bottom of exotic tix off nice Boynton Beach move 3/3.

3.) GALLOPING GROCER (Schettino/Luzzi) 120/7-5: Time is now for
Sleepy Hollow winner after 2005 debut didn\'t go as planned in the
Whirlaway. Dominic tabs Luz (for Gryder) in attempt to better dole out
A.P. Jet son\'s front-running speed with host of early types
signed on here. Trainer endured humiliating inner track session (1
for 36 last 90 days) under glare of new steward scrutiny and faces a \"must win\". 7-5 is frosting on unappealing package.

4.) BYANOSEJOE (Dutrow/Gryder) 116/8-1: Sandy Goldfarb and Rick
Dutrow send this improving Cherokee Run gelding into first black
type foray off trio of excellent performances (3/2-0-1) this winter
on the Big A inner. Sandwiched stalking wins around game try second
versus aforementioned Diamond Wildcat, and figures in the mix unnderneath with
plus style for today\'s affair.

5.) MADDY\'S LION (Pregman/Fragoso) 120/15-1: Lion Hearted bay colt
from tricky conditioner crushed the Winkfield and has been getting
maintained since. Spot is three time winner\'s graded bow, and
something tells us Pregman thought of this race seconds after the
Wink win. Appears over-matched for final 2f, but we have a saying in
the Toga backyard: \"Remember.. It\'s Pregman\".

6.) NAUGHTY NEW YORKER (Kelly/Samyn) 120/4-1: Kelly charge second
twice making smooth transition to open company in the Fleet (Scrappy
T) and Whirl (Sort It Out), and now takes logical next step into
grades. Has improved like fine port along the way with turf try lone
finish out of the money. Has been pairing up effort as he goes, and
now sits on forward move with crunch time approaching. Late running
style always a challenge, but this one is the Derby sleeper to watch
between this and the Wood. Gets over today.

7.) LIEUTENANT DANZ (Huston/Espinoza) 116/50-1: Set the pace last
time in $100k Optional, but couldn\'t hold off Lane\'s End-bound Mr.
Sword in stretch. Hasn\'t been afraid to mix it up with listed stakes
foes before that and only ran poorly when stumbling at start of the
Whirlaway. Looks like a useful sort, but bay only make Grocer\'s
job harder today by taking flight again.

8.) SURVIVALIST (Shug/Mig) 116/5-2: Shug likely thrilled to see
Ozone Park after unpleasant vacation in FL these last three months.
Danzig colt from legendary barn is 2/1-1-0 in pair of mile runs, and
receives medication 2nd time for stakes debut. Couldn\'t get to Sun
King 2/26 at Hallandale, and hasn\'t come home as fast as we\'d like.
Should move forward, (needs to), but will be heavily bet.

9.) PAVO (Pederson/Garcia) 116/10-1: $210,000 Paragallo purchase
another that is making professional progress, and finally maintained
his form in back to back starts with Cappy-Battaglia placements
behind Distinctive Trick and Magna Graduate last two. Makes fourth
start in 60 days, but broke maiden this surface and trip 11/2/04 and
will get clean stalking run down long Big A backstretch. Marquetry
red competitive on best, and shouldn\'t be forgotten when punching
gimmick buttons.

SELECTIONS:

1. NAUGHTY NEW YORKER
2. GALLOPING GROCER
3. BYANOSEJOE
4. SURVIVALIST
-----------------
We\'ll use PAVO, MADDY\'S LION and MR. CONGENIALITY as well in our
exactas and tri\'s, looking for value under New Yorker..

[richiebee]

In re Gotham:

   My first impression of the Gotham is that if you like Galloping Grocer today, you might be looking at the best odds he\'s ever been off at. For some reason, I think that Survivalist will be made the (bad) favorite today. Maybe Survivalist is 6/5 and GG is 8/5?

   I have defended Shug in the past. For him to blame an 0 for Gulfstream record on track conditions in Hallandale, I will probably be defending him less in the future. Once you are inducted into the Hall of Fame, your right to make excuses such as this should be limited.

   Naughty New Yorker: I watched both his Whirlaway and Count Fleet runs three times yesterday. Earlier in the season, I was on this board saying that he hung pretty badly in both of those races. NNY\'s running style was to commence a big move on the backside, hit full stride on the turn, and seem to level off a little in the lane. In each of those races, it is possible that Samyn allowed NNY to commence his run too early. He can win today at 3/1 - 7/2, but needs to be ridden perfectly by Samyn.

  The caveat for NNY is that his 3 best efforts came on the Inner Tube. Will he regress on the main track? Amazing that the main and the inner are so close to each other, yet some animals relish one and deplore the other.

  I believe that no animal in this race has any impact on the TC races.

  KaSept: Your memories of Pregman must be from quite a while ago. I remember him 5-7 years back as a high % turf trainer who produced a lot of big mutuels. His main owner\'s name was Bigman, I seem to recall. DRF statistics tell me that in 2004, he missed my \"Stuportrainer\" (over 100 starts, win percentage 5% or less)list by two victories.

[STB]

I agree with the ROTW assessment of NNY as having a healthy looking line, and I was disappointed that he wasn\'t included in the last Derby Future pool, since I thought that in spite of the question marks, he\'d have been worth a play at would have probably been very large odds.
Will he carry his form back to the main? He did run a 5 on the AQU main in November, and then paired that up next out on the inner...then again, the AQU main 5 was on a sloppy track, I think, so who knows.
Was hoping that Kelly would a, send the horse out of town for a prep over a different surface and vs. a different group of horses in hopes of getting a better read on him, and b, use someone other than Samyn. Looks like a no-go on both counts. Maybe Kelly doesn\'t harbor any Derby intentions anyway, which might be the reason for the curious (to me, for whatever that\'s worth) cut back to a one-turn mile.

[Kasept]

Richie..

We get a kick out of Pregman every summer because there\'s always a time or three during the meet where he shows up in a spot that makes you think twice.. \"What is he doing HERE with THIS horse?\".. They\'ll always be about 16-1, and they don\'t necessarily win, but acquit themselves well and boost exotics. At Toga I rarely leave his horses off wheels and keys..