To CH

[jimbo66]

CH,

A couple of points on the thread regarding High Limit.

One of your initial comments was that you have often seen how horses that raced on uncontested leads get overstated or higher figures on T-Graph, as compared to Beyers.  You listed High Limit\'s races last year as an example and I guess this somewhat contributed to your negative view of the horse.  

You then said you were \"100%\" sure this is the case.  

It just doesn\'t make sense at all if you look at methodologies logically.  As a matter of fact, the exact opposite should be true, that Beyer would overstate wire to wire figures in comparison to T-Graph.  This assumes of course that most wire to wire races are achieved in the 1-path.  As you and I both know, Beyer doesn\'t take into consider ground loss, just final times, pars and calculations of daily variants. If there is a race where two horses dead-heat for the win, carrying the same weight, and one went to the front and set an uncontested pace from the 1-path and the other rallied off the pace in the 2 or 3 path, Beyer will give both horses the same figure, whereas Jerry will give the closer the better figure.  So, T-Graph will \"understate\" not \"overstate\" the frontrunner.

I am really curious where you got this idea of T-Graph overstating figures relative to Beyer for \"wire to wire uncontested winners\".

I think the chance of an overstated Thorograph figure is when you have a race a track playing kindly to wide trips, like Belmont most of the time, and Jerry gives a big ground loss boost to a horse that rallied wide on the track that day.  I think there is some risk of a \"false wide\" figure on t-graph.  Of course this is just my opinion and I guess JB wouldn\'t agree, but I would feel pretty certain that most T-Graph users would feel that Beyer overstates uncontested wire to wire winners more often than JB.

If you were making a more general point that both Beyer and T-Graph overstate wire to wire winners on soft paces because NEITHER factors pace into their figures, I would agree with this, and in the past others on this board have discussed the same point.

But not T-graph relative to Beyers.

>I am really curious where you got this idea of T-Graph overstating figures relative to Beyer for \"wire to wire uncontested winners\".<

This is the opposite of what I am saying!

It\'s dominant speed horses when the pace is fast for the quality of the race where a problem \"could exist\".  

This is what I believe with regard to High Limit and frontrunners.

I was not 100% sure of anyhing about HL coming in because I didn\'t know the horses from Delaware. However, I was/am aware of a \"potential problem\" that \"could account\" for the speed figure discrepancy between TG and Beyer for his first start in the sprint (not the route). I don\'t have the data to know if they broke that race out or not. If they did not break it out, then there was a legitimate speed figure difference between TG and Beyer/Ragozin who gave him a much slower figure.  

Also, forget about wide or not wide. It is irrelevant to my views in this case.  

Here\'s the ideas:

1. If a speed horse gets a loose lead in a soft pace and a figure maker/handicapper \"takes that final time at face value\", the speed figure assigned will generally overstate the ability of the horse and quality of the performance because many horses run their best when loose on soft paces. The closers will generally run their normal figures or close under this scenario. What is relevant here is that as a handicapper you should be aware that this is a favorable trip that sometimes produces faster figures than is typical for the horse with an average pace scenario. So when they come back and run slower next time after dueling, they aren\'t bouncing or any other such nonsense.

If the pace was EXTREMELY SLOW, it is possible the front running horse could win easily  but not record a faster figure than usual because the pace would be so darn slow he couldn\'t come home fast enough to earn the faster figure. In that case, the closers would run slower than usual figures. The actual figure that gets assigned by the figure maker is dependent on their interpretation of the results. Some guys break these slow paced races out and others don\'t. This is why it\'s important to know who is doing what with these figures.

2. If a pace is extremely fast \"for the quality of race\" because there\'s one really dominant speed horse, that speed horse could wipe out everyone that races with him or close and go on to record his normal
speed figure. Remember a really fast pace for others may not be so fast for him because he is much better. If he wipes everyone out, he will go on to win by a much larger margin than everyone would have expected. If you don\'t break out races too often (like Beyer), you just give him his normal figure and all the other speeds and pressers get much slower figures than normal because they had a rough pace trip.

If you break races out more often and don\'t pay much attention to pace, there is the possibilty of interpreting this result to mean that the superior horse ran much faster than usual and the others ran their normal race. That would tend to overstate the speed figure that the dominant horse ran. That would be a potential problem. So if you see a really dominant wire to wire winner that cooked on the front end and potentially wiped everyone out and went on to win by a lot of lengths, there is the potential for an overstated speed figure if the race was broken out.

3. With regard to HL\'s performance Saturday, it falls into category #1. He got a loose lead, in a soft pace, on a track that may have favored inside speed. So whatever speed figure he is assigned, he didn\'t run as well as that figure indicates. Those were best conditions imaginable for him to run fast. Had he had some pressure from a quality speed horse, in a faster pace, on an honest track, I am almost 100% certain he would have recorded a slower final time (even if he won anyway). If he gets into an honest duel next time and runs a little slower, it\'s not a bounce. If he gets into an honest duel next time an earns the same speed figure, it\'s an improved performace not a pair up. Both are possible.



Post Edited (03-14-05 17:42)