Santa Catalina

[Saddlecloth]

Was Snack a TG purchase by Oneill?

TGJB,

What evidence do you have of inflated beyers in socal?  Lack of ability to transfer the figures when the horses ship to the east?  Lack of results in previous triple crown and breeders cups?

[TGJB]

We were not involved in the purchase, from what Friedman says on their site O\'Neill uses Ragozin, although exactly what that means and what they charge is a very open question. It would have been an interesting question as to what I would have advised a client to pay for that horse, since the market for 3yos is even more nuts than the overall horse market-- big number around 2 turns, but it was in the mud, he\'s developed an awful lot, no telling whether he\'ll ever see it again. Probably a buy at 500k given the upside, tough call beyond that.

I\'ve posted several examples of inflated California numbers, last couple of years Ragozin, more recently Andy\'s. I don\'t remember the posts and don\'t want to do the work, someone else (CH?) might remember where they are. Try searching \"California figures\" or \"Beyer\".

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB wrote:

> Another example of the inflated California Beyers shows up in
> the Fountain Of Youth. Check out Papi Chullo\'s figures,
> compared to any and all of the Eastern horses.
>

I\'ve been pouring over the above trying to identify the problem. I make Papi Chullo every bit of Giacomo\'s equal. I think thats still behind a horse like Kansas City Boy (TFig wise).

If Chullo is beaten by K.C.Boy, folks will say \"K.C. had better TFIGs\", but I don\'t think that will be the reason. I\'ll take Papi Chullo heads up with K.C. Boy in the Fountain of Youth, because I think he\'s a better horse and I think he\'ll be better odds.

Outside has been a tough spot there though and once again K.C. gets all the apparent breaks in early positioning. From what I can see he will be a factor.

--------------------

Defer - It appears Bailey off Defer is the last evidence needed for that one\'s potential here.

Dearest Mon - Can someone explain to me why he is back here?

High Fly - This horse doesnt move me. Others have been impressed by him. Bailey though venerable will surely find a way to give him a better run, but I\'m not so sure he really wants to go that far.

Bandini - No idea what he\'s been beating or how big T Graph makes it. Noble Causeway did come back to win a Maiden large, in slow time, is my recollection. Whoopty Doo.  Obviously, he\'s saved all the ground and is getting weight. The lack of variants for the new Gulfstream surface really is a nuisance with a horse like this. (You would think they could at least produce a running variant.) Of course, this time the ground issue looks to be a factor. This time it may be a question of having enough EPO pumped into him to carry him the extra distance. (Whoops, I\'m not supposed to talk about that.)

CtC



Post Edited (03-03-05 18:24)

[miff]

JB,

Do you have a fig for Sun King\'s GP race that you can post for us.?

[TGJB]

It will be in the next futures package, next week. It was a new top.

[miff]

JB,

Thanks,I figured that.

[Saddlecloth]

I dont think its close to that number.  I can find out though.

I would be willing to bet Going Wild against Declan if I didn\'t think there was at least \"some probability\" that SC will compromise his chances just enough that he could be best on Saturday and still lose to Declan because of the trip.

I am also fairly confident that Declan will return off the layoff with a good effort. The trainer is good off the layoff and the horse has already won off a 2 month freshening. I just think there\'s a difference between running well and being ready for a peak. These are lightly raced 3YOs. Any of them could move forward significantly and if that happens to be Going Wild, Declan is going to have to be extremely sharp off the layoff to win. In fact, he\'ll have to be so sharp I won\'t like his chances in May.

By the way, I think Going Wild is better than he looks. I made the pace of his last race a little faster than average.  That\'s partly why I have an interest.  I just doubt I\'ll get enough price to pull the trigger.



Post Edited (03-03-05 20:44)

TGJB,

If the Beyer CA figures are inflated, then those horses are pretty darn weak and will be a great bet against when the horses from different sections of the country start mixing it up.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

To this point the West Coast horses have been a tad slower. To my knowledge the FOY is the first race to judge the locales upon. (Caveat Risen Star) If DeClan\'s humbles Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild maybe you can draw that conclusion.

They said the same thing last year though. And at the time they weren\'t saying it in deference to Smarty Jones. Its true the Eastern horses took the Triple Crown races. But Kalifornia finished 2nd and 3rd in the Derby. 2nd and 4th in the Preakness. Rockhard ran poorly in the Belmont in part due to his early dash. I guess we\'ll find out in the Big Cap if he has some quality to him.

CtC



Post Edited (03-03-05 19:21)

[Kasept]

CtC..

McPeek will likely scratch KCB with the inside draw.. He specifically wanted to get him outside. Look for him in the LA Derby instead...

(Caveat is the ownership change of Wild Desert...)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'d be very surprised if McPeek scratched K.C.Boy. I can understand wanting to take him back a little and make a run, but Hallandele is playing to inside speed in my opinion. He\'s well drawn and is not a bad horse.

[Michael D.]

posts on sub even money shots are never popular, but declan has been my horse since last summer, so i have to stick with him. hoping for a fwd move here, maybe a run in the \"1\" or \"0\" range. SC and GW are both very quick colts, i suppose it\'s possible that one of them could break loose and keep going. odds the problem though. SC might go off in the 4-1 to 9-2 range, and GW in the 3-1 to 7-2 range. not enough for me with declan involved. snack might offer some value. tough call on the odds, somewhere in the 15-1 range i guess. nice # last, and he should get a better trip than last time (especially with three of them going).
 
overview -  declan in the doubles and pk\'s, and snack underneath. good luck everybody!!

>Another example of the inflated California Beyers shows up in the Fountain Of Youth. Check out Papi Chullo\'s figures, compared to any and all of the Eastern horses.<

This figure is from the same day as RHT.

Assuming you are correct that RHT\'s last race was off by 3-4 Beyer points (which I believe is possible) that would mean that PC\'s figure is also off by 3-4 points.

I can agree with that. But I think that is a \"specific race/specific day issue\".

[Kasept]

Kansas City Boy is a FOY scratch..

Also, if you\'re playing the GPH, scratch good ol\' Free For Internet..