GP Preview: FOY, Swale, Etc..

[Kasept]

From Derby Trail: http://www.groups.yahoo.com/group/derbytrail

A \'NEW\' VERSION OF THE FOUNTAIN

The Fountain of Youth, traditionally run at 8.5f earlier in the Gulfstream meet, has been stretched to 9f thanks to the new track configuration and moved to this later date as part of the curious rescheduling of the historic Florida Derby series. The race has been won by many of the game\'s greats over its\' 58 year run, recently by front end types who have led every step of the way.

A total of 10 Kentucky Derby winners have used the \'FOY\' as part of their prep campaigns, with Thunder Gulch (1995, 1st), Go For Gin (1994, 2nd to Dehere) and Unbridled (1990, 3rd to Shot Gun Scott) being the most recent. Spectacular Bid, Kauai King and Tim Tam were other Fountain winners who went on to glory on the first Saturday in May. Gen. Duke (1957), In Reality (1967), Bet Twice (1987) and Forty Niner (1988) made Fountain success part of their great careers.

This year\'s edition has lured a solid, though not sterling, field of sophomores that features five stakes winners. High Fly, now with Crown specialist Nick Zito, looks to rebound from his wide trip 3rd in the Holy Bull, and adds Jerry Bailey. The likely favorite, with the field\'s best figures, looms large from a favorable pace-chasing post. While wire to wire tactics have been the way to make a splash in the Fountain the last few years, this running features plenty of early speed and the addition of a tricky extra half furlong. For that reason, those expecting another front end theft by a candidate like Bandini, may be disappointed.

THE 59th FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH, Gr. II, 9f, $300,000, GP11th, 5:45pm

2.) B.B. BEST (Plesa/Chavez) 120/15-1: Quick son of Yes It\'s True owns field\'s most wins and biggest bankroll (8/4-0-1, $380,710). Was Calder monster at 2 terrorizing FL-bred competition from 5-8.5f culminating in rich In Reality score over Holy Bull winner Closing Argument. Lost all chance Sunshine Millions day when steadied at the start of Dash which Lost in the Fog proceeded to crush. His older half brother Classic Endeavor, a multiple graded route stakes winner, goes prior to this event in the GP Handicap. Their dam, Bold Juana, is a full sister of MD legend Little Bold John, a true routing war horse, so don\'t dismiss \'B.B.\' as a sprint type. There is plenty of early run in his event, he draws the rail and adds hustling Choppy. Plesa included intriguing mile drill 2/19 prepping for this, and \'Best\' may just last longer than anyone expects. Fine value inclusion.

1.) KANSAS CITY BOY (McPeek/Blanc) 116/6-1: Entrymate of just-dealt Wild Desert is a likely scratch to inside draw, after McPeek specifically hoped for wide berth for son of Boston Harbor. Conditioner will probably head to New Orleans for LA Derby now as he was hoping to use this event as a \'settling\' lesson for Holy Bull runner up. Would gun from between two speeds, exactly what trainer is trying to get away from with this guy. Would be third off the break if he goes, and has shown healthy, steady growth since early intro at 2. We applaud careful handling of this one as colt has makings of a serious division player.

3.) GENERAL JOHN B (Stein/Santos)  122/15-1: Muddy Turf Paradise Derby wire winner got no break at the scales for cross country trip, graded stakes debut and return to native Florida. Son of buzz stallion Sweetsouthernsaint from a General Assembly mare should relish added ground and merits a long look for inclusion from advantageous post with addition of Santos. Jon Court raved about this pony after Arizona score, and feel Stein charge may not require lead to be effective here. Sheet figs place him in the mix for share underneath and price figures juicy.

4.) PARK AVENUE BALL (Ryerson/Castellano) 122/12-1: Although trip should be within his scope, Citidancer chestnut has looked like a j.v. Proud Accolade to date. Copped Tyro and Gr. II BEL Futurity before being felled twice since by aforementioned Accolade. 5/3-2-0 if you forgive the Champagne struggles two back, and got a nose in front after lousy Hutch start before settling for the place. 2nd off break is a Ryerson strength (27%, $4.39 ROI), and Javier knows him well and has been very effective working with Jimmy (2 W\'s, 4 ITM in 5 starts). Inside stalking style may be the ticket here with all the speed, and this guy looks like another value addition to wheels and boxes.

5.) PAPI CHULLO (S. Gonzalez/R. Baze) 116/5-1: Class of \'05\'s most accomplished maiden comes East off pair of placements to Going Wild in the Sham and Silent Bid in a SA maiden affair. Finished ahead of well regarded Giacomo and Chekhov in those two demonstrating game attitude and good stalking gear. Figures to put it all together somewhere along the line, but is one of many here with similar figs and development curve. Could improve further and still settle for minor award. A male version of Hollywood Story? Another to keep in the exotic mix.

6.) DEFER (McGaughey/C. Velasquez) 120/6-1: Handsomely bred Phipps bay gets acid test in this, as 9f+ appears to be his aptitude. Shug clearly excited by prospects for this Gr. III winning son of Danzig after OK return 4th in inappropriate Hutcheson and subsequent 14f of morning effort. Immediately returned to best juvy speed level off the break and improvement here appears likely. Has forwardly-placed, near-the-lead style which delivered :31.4 closing time when last seen in a route; the winning effort in the Laurel Futurity 11/20/04. Loses Bailey, who\'s been riding him in the a.m. to High Fly, but gets solid Cornelio who rides well in the famed black silks and cherry cap. May not be cranked to gills with graded earnings already pocketed and Derby the goal, but a major player and lone true threat to favorite on his right.

7.) HIGH FLY (Zito/Bailey) 120/5-2: Certain odds-on choice makes initial try under Zito watch after owner Charlotte Weber pulled Aventura winner from Bill White following Holy Bull frustration. Atticus chestnut lost enough ground in that run (5w 1st turn, 3w second) to offset 2 length loss to Closing Argument and Kansas City Boy. Expect big return effort today off perfect :59.2 bullet (1-of-22) last week. Can win with pair up effort to either GP start and could even regress and come home ahead of these. In our view a single on any multi-race ticket and the top in your exotics.

8.) BANDINI (Pletcher/J. Velasquez) 116/4-1: Lone entrant with a win at the trip, plus 2 this strip, was impressive runaway in both FL tries. Wire jobs came versus full fields of eager sophs, and  earned \'good\' Beyers, solid \'sheet figs\'. Is NOT head and shoulders faster than the rest of the pace-setting types in here however, and certainly won\'t get away with 6f in 1:12 like he did last time. Needs significant move up to impact this, and while many think him capable, we\'ll take a pass in his initial stakes try.

1a.) WILD DESERT (McPeek/Day) 116/6-1: Part II of McPeek entry was sold this week to maniacal owner (and serial Toccet abuser) Dan Borislow. May head to Woodbine and Fort Erie for Canada\'s Crown, and looks like one to keep an eye on this year. Had a very solid, consistent juvy campaign which included two wins and a pair of stakes placements. Tough spot to begin a soph season, but Wild Rush bay has worked well for this and has a late kick that shouldn\'t be compromised by the wide launch. Pat Day, who is riding selectively now, feels compelled to climb on, and that should suit this guy\'s style. Would have to be special for laurels here, but is yet one more that could pick up a small check.

9.) DEAREST MON (Violette/Dominguez) 12-1: Another likely scratch thanks to the draw... (Why not let him and KC Boy switch stalls?)... May be headed to the Tampa Bay Derby instead, and the extra time might be a better idea anyway off his bad start Holy Bull.

10.) NATURAL PHENOMENON (Mitchell/Coa) 20-1: Two scratches would put this grey son of Arch into the 9 hole for the start. That will help the Mitchell maiden winner, but not enough in a config that has a very short run to the first turn. West Coast trainer has been enjoying his Florida winter so far, clicking at 21% including this Manoogian-owned colt\'s very good diploma-grabber 2/5. Mitchell has given him two easy maintenance moves since, but it\'s hard not to envision a bounce from this guy. Is stoutly bred, so trip will appeal, and Coa knows this oval. Still hard pressed to place him ahead of most here.

SELECTIONS:

We think High Fly stands out in this field, and recommend putting him alone on top and boxing as many as you like underneath in exactas, tris and supers... There is not a lot separating the big group of value candidates, so the gimmicks should still be lucrative even if the short-priced favorite comes through.

1. HIGH FLY
------------------------
2. DEFER
3. B.B. BEST
4. PAPI CHULLO
5. PARK AVENUE BALL

Note: KC Boy is a must-use if he runs, and Gen. John B is worthy at the bottoms of spread tix...


THE 20th SWALE, Gr. II, 7f, $150,000, GP9th, 4:43pm

The complexion of the seven-eighths Swale changed considerably over the past week as the field filled up to 11 while losing Chandtrue and Natural Phenomenon and gaining Up Like Thunder, Port Town, Evil Minister and Santana Springs. But the race still goes through undefeated freak colt Lost in the Fog who has fueled unending speculation about his possible involvement in Derby Trail events the rest of the spring.

Lost in the Fog drew 11th of the 11, a position that seems to be the only potential obstacle to his fourth straight career win. The son of Lost Soldier has won his races by a combined 27 lengths while earning triple digit Beyers and \"0\'s\" on the sheets. Greg Gilchrist\'s dark bay lays over this group by a wide margin, and it doesn\'t appear that there is any horse entered that can press him enough early to the point that he will be empty in the Gulfstream lane.

Straight Line makes his seasonal debut here, and veteran horseman Harry Vanier has brought his Gr. III Iroquois winner along slowly in hopes of making the Derby with the son of Boundary. He is the main threat to \'Fog\', but the layoff and his long term goal of Churchill Downs likely prevents him from being in position to best a colt that seems in peak form.

SELECTIONS:

1. LOST IN THE FOG: Unless challenged every step of the way, looks poised to win again.
2. STRAIGHT LINE: 7f was distance of his only off try. Has bigger things in mind down the road.
3. SANTANA SPRINGS: Wonderful son of Wheaton had lousy start in the Dash but rallied for 2nd.
4. AROUND THE CAPE: Another Live Oak runner, this one with Mott, looked like miler at best in ALW DQ win.


Also featured on the Gulfstream card Saturday are a pair of 9f sophomore conditionals that include Derby hopefuls, the Gr. II Forward Gal highlighted by brilliant undefeated soph miss MADDALENA and the Gr. II GP Handicap.

In the 7th, a maiden special, Todd Pletcher sends COIN SILVER (J. Velasquez), second when Natural Phenomenon broke his maiden; Stan Hough tries again with THREE IN THE BAG, second in his last two MSW tries; and Carl Nafzger has NORTHERN GENT, a Distorted Humor bay that has been a bit shy of Monarch Lane and Noble Causeway...

Noble Causeway himself highlights a very contentious N1X allowance in the 8th. Zito\'s Giant\'s Causeway chestnut needs a second big effort Saturday to further his prospects for a Florida Derby or Wood Memorial try. Hough\'s early buzz horse DEPUTY INDY returns after it turned out he was suffering a lung infection when he failed as favorite in High Fly\'s Aventura. We\'re still not giving up on this A.P. Indy colt. McPeek\'s third Derby prospect DIAMOND ISLE makes his seasonal debut in this event, and the Buckram Oak Gilded Time runner was doubly stakes placed at two behind Bellamy Road (Cradle, Gr. III) and Consolidator (Breeder\'s Futurity, Gr. I)...

MADDALENA is something of a female Lost in the Fog. In the $150,000 Forward Gal she tries to stay perfect for the Pletcher/Tabor-Smith team against Zito/Whitney bay BIRD HARBOR, Red Arnold\'s 2-for-2 LETGOMYECHO, Ward/Oxley candidate LITTLE MONEY DOWN and Sunshine Million Oaks winner HOT STORM...

In the GPH, we like Zakocity...