San Carlos Handicap

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Just took a quick look at this race. Very interesting field.

Hasty Kris - Very hard knocking, old, second tier horse. Post may not be all bad. Seems to have been much closer to pace last than is his norm. How to interpret that?

Choctaw Nation - Vanquisher of Pleasantly Perfect. Sprinting (Is this his game?) Looks to be a confirmed one run type. Not the typical modus operandi for your typical juicer.

Sinister G. - Has never come close to his Lane\'s End and race just prior. Mullins wasn\'t able to move him last. Was there an ownership change? Is he a rabbit for Choctaw?

Mass Media - Frankel without the Shakes? Seems to be well spotted.

Perfect Moon - Distance looks to suit him. Is he good enough.

Harvard Avenue - This horse is always getting into trouble, going wide of going off form. I should have cashed him in the Santa Catalina.

Del Mar Show - 35 races and not one of them on dirt. Here he is. Guess Mott has had a bit of a falling out with the younger Paulson. Sometimes the acorn rolls quite a ways downhill from the Oak.

Oceanus - Well the distance appears to suit him. Is he getting better? He\'s getting in light. I don\'t know the South American horses that seem to be good seem to come from Argentina. But, if he can run it doesnt matter if he comes from Iceland.

Frankel\'s horse would seem to have a distinct edge here, but with whats going on does he? I\'m gonna watch and try and learn from this one.

CtC



Post Edited (02-26-05 14:07)

I\'d have to make Mass Media the favorite in this race also. I can\'t see playing him as the favorite, but I don\'t feel strongly enough about anyone else to play against him.

I guess Choctaw Nation could be off the board if you want to play exactas leaving him out and they happen to bet him heavily. He\'s coming off a layoff, probably prefers a route, and Mullins supposedly hasn\'t been going well (I haven\'t actually been following the performances of his horses). That seems like enough ways to try to beat a 2nd choice if he goes off that short.

The other thing I noticed is that there\'s not much speed in this race. If you have a strong opinion on someone getting loose on the lead (other than Mass Media) that might be a decent horse to use in the exacta. Maybe Sinister G or Hasty Kris? Could even be Perfect Moon with blinkers on?



Post Edited (02-26-05 17:17)

[spa]

Harvard A. is the play........

[Michael D.]

nice handicap - mass media is four lengths the best going in and only gives two lbs to the next choices. even money sounds fair. i put a small bet on hasty kris here at 5-1. should be able to run in the \"0\" range, and should get a nice trip stalking a modest pace (modest as in not 21 and 43 like last time). MM is the best, saver with him.

[Michael D.]

nice patient ride by douglass. a \"0\" was all it took with MM flopping. harvard runs well once again - tough luck horse.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yes, good race. I made a mistake not betting. Sometimes watching gets you in trouble...lol

I doubt you made a mistake by passing this race. Just because Mass Media didn\'t win doesn\'t mean he wasn\'t the deserving favorite. Unless you had a very strong reason to think he wasn\'t going to run well and was very overbet, you are going to have a very difficult time winning money over the long haul betting against legitimate clear favorites like this. Horses like this tend to outperform the take (while still being unprofitable) which makes it a monumentally difficult task to find value elsewhere.  If there was any value in the race, IMO it was probably by leaving Choctaw Nation out of the belly of the exacta.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yes, I agree that on his Past Performances, Mass Media was well placed here. I did take note of Frankels lamintations of being unable to train Lundy\'s Liability and noted Mass Media was apparently in the same predicament. Conversely, Hasty Kris was working like a champ in the off going and I did suspect he was on top form, but he is 8 years old and he the second choice at only 7-2. I liked Harvard for clunk up money and I liked the horse you mentioned for a minor award. I\'m a careful bettor even when I bet a 30-1 on top.

I agree. I see nothing wrong with Hasty Kris being the second choice and winning once Mass Media didn\'t run his best race. It\'s just that I only take 3-1/7-2 on horses I think are the mostly likely winner. When they are the 2nd most likely, 3-1/7-2 is rarely an overlay unless the two horses are very similar in ability. Perhaps I  overrated Mass Media a bit off that one huge race, but he is a lightly raced just turned 4YO that showed potential from the start. He may just have too many problems to reach his potential.

[Michael D.]

the horse paid $9.80 (basically 4-1). it only took a small exacta with MM to hedge the bet. tough to score big there, but there was some money to be made.



Post Edited (02-27-05 17:10)

I can\'t argue with success. Perhaps I overrated MM\'s chances of winning to begin with.

In my own betting I rarely take the most likely winner at less than 3-1 and the 2nd most likely winner at anything less than 5-1. Over the long haul, I don\'t make any money taking shorter prices than that. Of course there are occasional exceptions, but this race wasn\'t bettable for me given my view.