Derby Watch

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well since the DRF\'s Watchmaker is having a little trouble I guess its time for a revised top 10 Derby Watch list.

1. Rockport Harbor - Ran through injury, ran fast, reportedly improving by leaps and bounds, (always cynical there), Only knock is appears at a glance to be a little lite on the dam side.

2. Afleet Alex - Ran a huge Breeders Cup Juvenile and was probably best (Maybe I should discount him on that), Was fast, probably fast enough to win some of the races coming up even if he doesn\'t improve. Knock is probably long distance breedings. Full brother \"Unforgettable Max\" is sprinty.

3. Galloping Grocer - If Rockport is number 1, this guy can\'t be far behind. Big test shortly for him.

4. Going Wild - Was visually impressive in fighting back in the Sham. Moves to the fore of the Lukas bunch on that effort and his breeding.

5. DeClan\'s Moon - I\'ve decided I like Golden Missiles and this one moves up despite being the Juvenile Champ. (Whoops, hes a Malibu Moon, still makes him an A.p.Indy grandson, so thats ok)

6. Wilco - Still worried about his dam side, but I\'ll forgive him the quarter crack Hollywood Futurity. A missed start or physical setback and he\'s off the list

7. Closing Arguement - Looks sprint bred and saved some ground last, but the race time looks good to me and he was running best of them at the end.

8. Straight Line - But haven\'t heard from him, he may be injured. I don\'t know whats going on.

9. Giacomo - Last race was off freshening and he conceded multiple lengths on wide, but still you were left with a hanging horse at the end. One more race for final evaluation.

10. Iced Out - Cheapy running in the Risen Star. Pace Style is worrisome. Big race for the Bubble horses.

Honorable Mention: Papi Chullo, Consolidator, Spanish Chestnut, Sun King, Greater Good

CtC



Post Edited (02-10-05 11:47)

[NoCarolinaTony]

CtC,

I like your list but I think you are overlooking one horse in particular that I believe can win the Derby. That horse is Sweet Catomine. Not only is she bred to run the distance her GSV is second to that of Storm Surge another Storm Cat. Harlington is 3rd. Her figs also fit well with any horse still in the running. Im placing my future Bet in Pool one on her. I think she\'s a freak.

NCTony (only becuse I don\'t live in NYC anymore)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

NoCarolinaTony wrote:

> CtC,
>
I think you are overlooking one horse in
> particular that I believe can win the Derby. That horse is
> Sweet Catomine. Not only is she bred to run the distance her
> GSV is second to that of Storm Surge another Storm Cat.
> Harlington is 3rd. Her figs also fit well with any horse still
> in the running.

I think Catomine is a good filly too. But she figured to come out running, shes a Storm Cat. Now shes two year old champion. I don\'t know,if she continues to move forward she may be able to do it. If she was mine, I\'d have to see an awful lot to take her away from the checks in the filly races.

I\'m really not sure what GSV is. If Harlington scores third on it behind Catomine and Stormy, its whacked. Serenas Song has it all over Storm Surge\'s dam and Unbridled is at least the equal of Storm Cat on distance breeding. Maybe they factor the mares get too. I don\'t know. Its all Hoodoo of course. Its a factor when they\'ve shown they have gotten ground and appear to want more. I don\'t see that in Storm Surge yet. Now, don\'t take that to mean I think Harlington will beat Storm Surge this race. I did not say that.

[gvido]

1. Rockport Harbor - Ran through injury, ran fast, reportedly improving by leaps and bounds, (always cynical there), Only knock is appears at a glance to be a little lite on the dam side.
********************************************
Toss. They\'re going to attempt to win it off two preps. They\'re skipping the Southwest. I never like a sudden change in plans for these.


2. Afleet Alex - Ran a huge Breeders Cup Juvenile and was probably best (Maybe I should discount him on that), Was fast, probably fast enough to win some of the races coming up even if he doesn\'t improve. Knock is probably long distance breedings. Full brother \"Unforgettable Max\" is sprinty.
********************************************
Another toss. These connections also trying to win off two preps. Last to do it: Sunny\'s Halo in 1983, before that the early 1900\'s.

3. Galloping Grocer - If Rockport is number 1, this guy can\'t be far behind. Big test shortly for him.
********************************************
Toss. Another Ny bred gelding? Once in a lifetime, LOL If memory serves AP Jet has been throwing cheap sprinters

4. Going Wild - Was visually impressive in fighting back in the Sham. Moves to the fore of the Lukas bunch on that effort and his breeding.
********************************************
Another toss. Winning the Sham isn\'t the road to the Roses Tho Frankel still believes Empire Faker was the best hoss

5. DeClan\'s Moon - I\'ve decided I like Golden Missiles and this one moves up despite being the Juvenile Champ. (Whoops, hes a Malibu Moon, still makes him an A.p.Indy grandson, so thats ok)
***********************************
Another toss. Only two preps on the schedule, ain\'t gonna happen


6. Wilco - Still worried about his dam side, but I\'ll forgive him the quarter crack Hollywood Futurity. A missed start or physical setback and he\'s off the list
*******************************************
Same as above toss. Two preps just aren\'t enough, though Wilco has a better foundation as a 2yo than most who have tried.


7. Closing Arguement - Looks sprint bred and saved some ground last, but the race time looks good to me and he was running best of them at the end.
************************************
Toss. Only 10pts in the dosage profile minimum 16 needed to get the job done.


8. Straight Line - But haven\'t heard from him, he may be injured. I don\'t know whats going on.
************************************

I\'m rooting for ol\' Harvey Vanier. But a two month vacation [no wks] isn\'t the ticket to the Roses. He\'s working kinda slow 4f\'s at GP Toss I reckon.

9. Giacomo - Last race was off freshening and he conceded multiple lengths on wide, but still you were left with a hanging horse at the end. One more race for final evaluation.
********************************************
I always wonder why these people waste efforts in non graded affairs. Expensive pony. The late pace for the Sham rather pedestrian, Toss.


10. Iced Out - Cheapy running in the Risen Star. Pace Style is worrisome. Big race for the Bubble horses.
*******************************
Bred grass top and bottom.

Honorable Mention: Papi Chullo, Consolidator, Spanish Chestnut, Sun King, Greater Good

CtC
*******************************************
Chuckie Baby:
Not dissing your list, just pointing out their weaknesses. Be back later with my own.

Later

[TGJB]

A horse called Victory Gallop won the Derby off two preps. They just forgot to give us the trophy.

Here\'s the thing-- if the issue was fitness, those horses that ran in the Derby off only two preps (or off more than 4 weeks rest, the other one you hear) would run better in their next start than they do in the Derby-- they would be tighter. Take a look back to see whether that happens.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol gidvo...

you\'re entitled, it was just a subjective list based upon an early evaluation of efforts.

lol @ Empire Faker



Post Edited (02-11-05 18:00)

TGJB,

That\'s a very interesting point. I\'ve never actually studied it carefully. My \"feeling\" has always been that there have been quite a number of  contenders that disappointed in the Derby with the supposed excuse of not being prepped well enough.

IMO, the major problem with studying the Derby is that the field is usually so huge, many horses have horror show trips. There has been more than a few extreme paces that eliminated many of the contenders. Lots of horses throw in dud races for no apparent reason and then come back at Pimlico and fire their best shot.

The conditions are so demanding, that\'s it\'s difficult to build a useful profile of what gets the job done. A high percentage of the time you wind up with extremely subjective views on who was actually best etc....

Personally, I think horses peak in their 3rd-5th start after a layoff if the trainer is doing his job well. If you come back too sharp or too short, I think it can cause a lot of problems later in the season.

I think St. Liam for example came back WAY too sharp. I don\'t expect him to last until the end of the season. I think RIM came back as well as a horse could possibly come back. I expect him to be peaking in the early summer. Then they can freshen him and perhaps win the BC. St Liam will be on a farm by then.

[Kasept]

JB,

It was certainly the case with Point Given. Baffert has said repeatedly that he wished he had gotten a third start into PG before the Derby.. I\'ll have to do some checking, but I think Timber Country may have been short for one of the two conditioning \"angles\" as well in \'95.

Since this is my first post, I\'d like to the opportunity to congratulate you and your org. on its great work.

I discovered you before that \'95 Derby when your thoughts were being handed out gratis via DRF. Your endorsement of TGulch was a confidence booster at the time after mine was shaken by the Blue Grass performance.

I bet the race in Montreal, and I\'ll tell you with a grin I was the only guy in Bluebonnets with the winner, exacta and tri! It was that day I also discovered there was no auto tax takeout in Canada, because believe me, I expected to be signing.

Thanks as well for the free week at the end of the year.

Steve

[NoCarolinaTony]

Ctc,

I also Agree GSV and DI et al are all hocus pocus to a degree but then again so are figs to a degree. Some figs are done with more science then others (thorograph vs beyer or rags). i really beleiving in watching the replays and also using TG and DRF are the best tools for me to put iot all together, none the less, I have stumbled upon this clac via pedigree online and it seems to be better than most in predicting ability than lets say DI etc.

Look it up on Pedigree online. I find it very usefull on young 2yo\'s and 3yo\'s (lightly raced).

Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Maybe Empire Faker couldn\'t have his Straberry shake that day.

NC Tony

[jbelfior]

Then the question becomes if Baffert had been able to get that 3rd prep race for POINT GIVEN, would he have dominated or even won the Belmont??

Love all the pre-KY derby hype, but the Roses are not won in February. Too many things will happen over the next 10 weeks that would have been impossible to see from this point in time. Some 3 yos will show marked improvement in February and March only to plateau in April. Some will show very little in the way of any improvement only to blossom around Wood Memorial/Blue Grass time (see FUNNY CIDE, UNBRIDLED).

All of these races are not Derby preps; they are preps for the next 3yo stakes race.


Good Luck,
Joe B.