Derby Post Mortem

[derby1592]

\"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.\" George Santayana

I thought I would take a look back at some of the things discussed in recent before-Derby threads now that the big race is in the books. Let\'s see what we can learn. I am hoping this might trigger some further interesting discussion on several fronts.

Let me start by congratulating TGJB on a nice score. Now onto several different topics.

The Bottom-Line:

\"Any failure will tell you success is nothing but luck.\" R. Lewis Bowman

I will start out with this so that you can put the rest of what I say into perspective. Unlike TGJB, I had a syndicate of exactly 1 person (one advantage is that it simplified all the decisions) and I decided to key Perfect Drift to cut down the cost of my tickets. I bet PD to win and boxed him in exactas with the following main contenders that I thought offered some decent value: Saarland, Request For Parole and War Emblem. In the Tri, I keyed PD in the 1 and 2 slots along with Saarland, RFP, WE and added in Medaglio D\'Oro and Harlan\'s Holiday since I feared them the most and then threw in several others in the 3-slot only (including Proud Citizen). I did something very similar in the Super. If Perfect Drift run had run first or second (perhaps simply avoided checking in the stretch??...) I would have absolutely crushed the race. As it is, I did not cash a single ticket. With that hard luck story out of the way, lets move on.

Derby Computer Model:

\"Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please.\" Mark Twain

Here are the top 6 picks of the model (and clearly the primary contenders identified by the model output) after post position draw and subsequent scratches:

I have listed the actual finish of the horse, the model\'s predicted \"break even\" odds, the final tote board odds, and the calculated \"edge.\"

3rd, Perfect Drift, 2.4-1, 7.9-1, 164% edge
7th, Harlan’s Holiday, 7.6-1, 6-1, -18% edge
10th, injured, Saarland, 8.5-1, 6.9-1, -17% edge
5th, Request For Parole, 9.1-1, 29.8-1, 205% edge
1st, War Emblem, 10.6-1, 20.5-1, 86% edge
4th, troubled trip, Medaglio D’Oro, 11.5-1, 6.9-1, -37% edge
All the rest were rated far behind these at break-even odds of 28-1 or higher.

The only horse in this list that ran poorly was Saarland, who was injured and the only horse that finished in the top 5 that was not on this list was Proud Citizen. Unfortunately, I do not have a \"Lukas in Kentucky\" factor built into the model (yet…)

The three \"value\" horses based on the model were clearly PD, RFP and WE and those three ran third, fifth and first respectively. I will let you draw your own conclusions about the model based on these results.

Overlays and Underlays:

\"Good bets at 3/5 are as scarce as a hockey player’s teeth.\" EJ Donnelly

I may be wrong but I get the sense that some people tend to base overlays and underlays on the morning line. If so, this is a big mistake. You need to base it on your own projected odds line. A horse can get bet down to below its morning line but still be a good bet if you think his tote odds are still generous based on your projected odds line. For example, Perfect Drift and Saarland both had morning lines of 15-1 and looked like good value based on the computer model’s odds line. They both also were bet down on the tote. Saarland was bet down to just under 7-1 and became a poor bet based on the model, however, PD still went off at almost 8-1 and was clearly still a good value play based on the calculated odds line despite being bet down well below his morning line. The message here is simple: don’t base your betting decisions on the morning line; instead, base them on your own calculated odds line. If your top choice gets bet down below an acceptable level, back off. Similarly, if your second or third choice gets overlooked, consider making them your play. I know this is tough to do since you know, by definition (if your odds line is any good) that you are going to cash less often playing your second or third choice; however, you will end up making more (or losing less) money in the long run. This is a tough concept to handle both intellectually and emotionally but it is essential to being a good \"value\" handicapper.

Front-runners in the Derby:

\"I would rather bet on the engine than the caboose.\" EJ Donnelly

First to TGJB: all I can say is touche\'. I have to admit that War Admiral (whoops! I mean War Emblem) looked pretty good running on the front end in this year’s Derby. On a similar note, trying to change a horse\'s running style never seems to work in the Derby. This year\'s example is Medaglio D\'Oro. Look for a hot pace in the Preakness.

Sub-6 Figs as 2yos:

\"The scars of others should teach us caution.\" Saint Jerome

To date, no horse has run a sub-6 TG fig as a 2yo and then gone on to even hit the board in the Derby. Most never even make it to the Derby and those that do enter the Derby don\'t usually fare well. This year that list included many of the future book or post-time Derby favorites including: Siphonic, Repent, Officer, Harlan\'s Holiday and Came Home. It seems as if these precocious types are usually not capable of carrying their 2yo form all the way into the Derby. We have speculated on the various possible reasons in past threads. I think you should definitely keep this in mind if you plan to make future book wagers next year.

Pace Makes the Race:

\"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.\" Bertrand Russell

Does anyone think that War Emblem would still have won the Derby this year if they had repeated the brutal pace of last year? Does anyone think that Congaree would still have finished only third in the Derby last year if they had run the relatively slow pace that was run this year? If not, then you are admitting that the pace dynamic of those races had an impact on performance. If so, I think you are probably in a state of denial. It may have been hard to predict the pace but it is even harder to deny that the given pace in these two races did have a significant impact on the outcome.

Post Position in the Derby:

\"Cigarette smoking is a major cause of statistics.\" Unknown

We had a lively discussion on the importance of post-position. I argued that inside posts saved ground while others said it was more a function of jockey intent, running style, and that inside posts only served to increase the chances of getting into trouble. This year’s running of the Derby will certainly not resolve that debate but I don\'t think the connections of PD, WE and RFP are complaining much about their inside posts and I imagine that a few of the connections of horses the made a bee-line to the outside posts are now second-guessing their decisions.

Frozen for posterity:

\"The United States is a nation of laws: badly written and randomly enforced.\" Frank Zappa

I know that Barry Irwin is not real popular on this board but he did make a good suggestion in his recent article in the Bloodhorse. Let\'s freeze samples of all the horses in the TC and the BC. I have a feeling they could tell an interesting tale someday when the good guys finally catch up to the bad guys...

\"Tiger\" Crown:

\"You must turn and face the tiger to learn it is made of paper.\" Zen saying.

Baffert and the Prince now have a \"Tiger Crown\" (i.e., hold all three jewels of the Triple Crown at the same time). They next will be going for a \"Tiger Slam\" in the Preakness.

I will end this long post with a quote from the Bard, \"A horse! a horse! my kingdom for a horse!\"

Chris

[MO]

Chris,

Good job. Your theory about sub 6 figures as 2 year olds is one I will now employ with confidence.

MO

[TGJB]

First of all, the decision making was simple- I made the play, and just sold pieces. Watching the race I was rooting for WE to get second also, since I had a pretty good exacta. As it turned out I was better off(luckier)this way.
As far as the sub 6 numbers go, I think yes and no. I tried to get HH and RFP bought after their 3yo debuts(and PD later), and I told the client(and Elliot)that as fast as they were, if you raced them conventionally through the preps they would be going the wrong way by the Derby. My plan was to stop then, and not run until the Bluegrass or Ill. Derby, and I think we would have gotten the top in the Derby. Another advantage to this plan is that if they are short you get the number in the Preakness, and have a relatively fresh horse when others are cooked coming into the Belmont.
I think pace matters in EXTREME cases, like last year, or if they had gone 49. 47 in a mile and a quarter race is not that slow. I would also point out that Spend A Buck went 45 and change.
Finally, I want to say that I think WE vindicates me for Balto Star last year, and not because of the pace differential. As you pointed out, these are ultimately odds plays. The two horses were almost identical, and if they fired were very strong. One ran, one didn\'t, at prices- big net profit. The bottom line is the bottom line.
Oh, one other unrelated item. I loved Friedman saying on his site that if he had hit the super he would have kept his mouth shut. This from a guy who has posted crowing about hitting an exacta of the favorite over the second choice(which his own fans took him to task about), to say nothing of the claims in Ragozin\'s book of Friedman giving out a \"cold trifecta\" in the \'86 Belmont.

[Dr. Fager 1:32]

VERY interesting idea about trying to use what you know as a handicapper to map out a campaign for a horse in a non-conventional way.

If there IS any horse who could overcome the lack of not having enough prep races as a 3yo, I would think a sub-6 horse could do the trick.

Such management of a horse might allow it to stick around the game a little bit longer than 2 seasons as well...

Win or lose (Derby), I\'d have to tip my hat to someone who would have the \"stones\" and patience to do their own thing amidst a lot of likely pressure to run sooner.

[Dr. Fager 1:32]

Chris --

What do you think of incorporating these guidelines into your Derby profile...(?)

1) Layoff
2) At least 3 preps as a 3yo
3) A minimum # of races for the career (Beyer mentioned that the last horse to win with 4/less races was in like 1918 or something like that)

If you apply those \"rules\" along with the sub-6 jinx, out of your list, the only horse left would be War Emblem.

Just a thought...

[Mall]

While it appears that the capslock EXTREME was meant to only apply to the pace in the Derby, I must disagree with even that limited assertion. If you have any doubt whatsoever about the importance of early speed in all races, I recommend that you read, or in some cases reread, Quirin\'s study of 15,348 races run over all surfaces & at distances up to 1 1/4 miles in his 1979 book. In fact, if memory serves JB, you raised the Q of why a disproportionate no. of frontrunners win in a post some time ago. Some argue that the reasons are the ground saved & the lack of trouble, but the explanation which has always made the most sense to me is that horses are herd animals & in some sense are \"hard-wired\" to follow the leader of the pack. That explanation is certainly consistent with my obervations & it is no secret that some of the more successful buyers are interested in seeing how a horse acts in the field with his or her peers before making a major purchase.

[derby1592]

Doc,

The model does not have any \"hard and fast\" rules. It just weights certain factors and rolls them into an odds line via some extensive number crunching. It does factor in the 2yo line and the 3yo preps including number and spacing but it is not a series of rules such as you described.

Such Derby rating systems remind me a lot of the question-keys I had to use in high school biology to identify insects. Does it have 3 body segments?...Does it have wings?...You kept answering a set of binary questions until finally you narrowed down the entire universe of bugs into only one possible little critter that had to be your particular little critter. Of course, when you compared the picture in the book to the bug in the jar they looked completely different. Teacher, I need some help...

Fortunately, I did not become a biologist.

Chris